In an era marked by misinformation and sensational claims, critical analysis and fact-checking have become essential to our understanding of complex topics. Recently, an intriguing conversation between renowned Ivy League professor Dave Collum and prominent media figure Tucker Carlson has sparked intense discussion. This dialogue traverses a wide array of controversial subjects, including financial crises, conspiracy theories, and technological evolution within the digital landscape. While Collum’s boldness in addressing such multifaceted issues is commendable, it’s crucial to scrutinize the claims made during this exchange to separate fact from fiction. In this blog post, we will meticulously unpack the points raised in the conversation, providing clarity and context to ensure informed discourse on these provocative topics. Join us as we explore the intricate connections between economic realities, cultural narratives, and the pervasive influence of the so-called ‘Deep State’ in our digital age.
Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts
Transcript:
[00:00:00,000]: Very few college professors do what college professors are supposed to do which is kind of break through outside campus into the conversation among smart people about what the world is about [00:00:13,640]: And in other words they don’t kind of influence the broader culture directly [00:00:18,260]: And you do [00:00:20,180]: And you’re an organic chemistry professor [00:00:25,620]: Are you allowed to do this at Cornell [00:00:28,139]: Are you allowed to kind of opine on economics social policy foreign policy [00:00:34,919]: Like what are your administrators saying when you do this [00:00:41,560]: I don’t know if it’s generally true but Cornell’s not giving me any guff [00:00:46,419]: The only problem I had with Cornell and we talked you know we had breakfast and we talked a little bit about I think my colleagues wish I would shut up but they don’t tell me to shut up [00:00:56,360]: Although you know they’ve told me to stay on [00:00:59,040]: I have kind of an intellectual Tourette’s syndrome [00:01:01,599]: Stay in your lane [00:01:02,479]: Well I’ll be in the middle of class like in March of 07 [00:01:07,360]: In the middle of class no warning [00:01:08,919]: I blurt out the banking system’s about to collapse [00:01:12,319]: I had written about it in 02 but I turned I said I think it’s about to collapse [00:01:17,860]: This is an organic chemistry class [00:01:19,400]: An organic chemistry class [00:01:20,620]: And they looked at me and I just said look I think the entire banking system’s going down the tubes now [00:01:25,000]: And it took another year year and a half [00:01:26,860]: Did they say that’s not a related discipline [00:01:28,839]: What are you talking about [00:01:29,519]: No one gave me guff for that [00:01:30,559]: What was entertaining about that particular Tourette’s like outburst is that I had the same kids in an honors thesis course two years later in the first lecture one lecture a week [00:01:43,739]: The first lecture I said didn’t I warn you this is February of 09 [00:01:47,559]: So didn’t I warn you that the banking system was going to collapse [00:01:50,519]: I said they said yeah you did [00:01:52,319]: And I said did your econ professors tell you that [00:01:55,139]: They said no [00:01:55,860]: And I said what are those assholes paid for [00:02:18,119]: In this thesis course I used a lot of guest lectures [00:02:22,500]: So my first guest lecture was the CEO of Morgan Stanley Bank [00:02:27,360]: And he had cut his teeth on mortgage backed securities and he spent two hours talking about the catastrophe that we were in the middle of in February of 09 [00:02:38,940]: And so yeah I do occasionally go off the rails but no one gives me grief [00:02:44,880]: I got canceled in 2020 [00:02:46,539]: The closest you and I I’ve been following you for years but the closest you and I actually came to actually meeting but we didn’t was in 2020 [00:02:56,699]: I got canceled during the height of cancel season right [00:02:59,539]: Remember how it was happening all the time [00:03:01,259]: And the probability of me ending up being interviewed by you was pretty high because it was being I got canceled [00:03:07,600]: I was written up in the Federalist and places like that [00:03:09,679]: What were you canceled for [00:03:11,300]: Oh it was a real crime against humanity [00:03:13,639]: I supported the police [00:03:15,360]: Oh okay [00:03:16,380]: It was one of those [00:03:17,500]: Remember the guy got knocked over in Buffalo [00:03:19,520]: Yes [00:03:21,460]: A friend of mine I was doing a podcast with that Saturday posted that late one night and said I think this is just appalling when the old guy got knocked up by the riot police [00:03:32,320]: And I watched the video a couple of times [00:03:33,940]: I said well Chris his name is Chris Irons [00:03:36,679]: I said we can talk about it on Saturday but I have no idea what he was doing there [00:03:43,520]: So this is in a tweet [00:03:45,059]: And I said he was poking riot police with something that looked kind of like a taser or something [00:03:51,360]: Turns out in retrospect it was a skimmer [00:03:55,279]: And so I said it looks like kind of a self inflicted problem to me right [00:04:00,919]: I didn’t say he deserved it or anything like that but it is self inflicted if you poke a riot policeman and he knocks you over right [00:04:07,479]: That’s pretty much you know it’s a Darwin award [00:04:10,220]: Bears and riot policemen shouldn’t be poked [00:04:12,899]: Turns out what I learned that night was the cancel culture is not organic [00:04:18,320]: It was incredibly astroturfed [00:04:21,959]: The speed with which it happened was staggering [00:04:25,600]: It was automated [00:04:28,399]: Within 20 or 30 minutes email boxes all across the administration were filling with complaints [00:04:36,559]: It went everywhere [00:04:37,660]: I had to lock down my Twitter feed fast and things like that [00:04:42,220]: And then Cornell was on sort of a war footing trying to figure out what to do [00:04:45,559]: Now they’re trying to figure out what to do just because they wanted the fire to be put out right [00:04:50,660]: So they weren’t against me in that sense [00:04:54,459]: It was during the lockdown [00:04:56,160]: So I didn’t actually there was the advantage of everyone was locked down but I wasn’t sure Antifa wouldn’t show up [00:05:05,959]: And we know that’s not organic either right [00:05:09,000]: And so I slept with some loaded guns and I was emotionally ready to blow someone’s brains out [00:05:17,140]: How many tenured professors in Ivy League schools have guns at home [00:05:20,980]: I don’t know [00:05:22,859]: Well there’s probably more [00:05:24,399]: We have natural resources department stuff like that [00:05:27,320]: And those guys probably use the resources available [00:05:31,679]: But the one mistake Cornell made they made two mistakes [00:05:35,519]: First of all it turns out the guy was a grifter [00:05:38,260]: The whole thing was faked [00:05:40,459]: And there’s video footage of him telling people he’s going to go get knocked down and people yelling at him for doing that [00:05:47,320]: It turns out the blood that came out of his ear [00:05:49,600]: I’ve talked to physicians [00:05:50,980]: They said it would never come out like that [00:05:53,140]: There’s pictures of him on the gurney talking on a cell phone behind the ambulance [00:05:57,320]: The press couldn’t find him in any of the hospitals [00:06:00,179]: He made a lot of money on GoFundMe [00:06:02,760]: So he grifted [00:06:04,359]: While he was supposedly in a coma his Twitter feed which had all sorts of fuck the police kind of comments was being scrubbed very quickly [00:06:14,980]: So it turned out the whole thing in retrospect was a grift [00:06:17,959]: So I was dead right [00:06:20,559]: Cornell was on a war footing trying to figure out how to just stop this [00:06:23,160]: There’s graffiti all over the campus and stuff [00:06:24,899]: And so they made two mistakes [00:06:26,459]: One is at no point did someone from Cornell reach out and say how are you doing [00:06:31,540]: Right because I got North Carolina got canceled [00:06:34,239]: He killed himself right [00:06:35,380]: I wasn’t going to kill myself [00:06:36,760]: It was unpleasant [00:06:37,899]: I would admit that [00:06:39,140]: How long had you been at Cornell at that point [00:06:41,160]: Oh that would have been 40 years [00:06:43,519]: 40 years [00:06:44,380]: Right [00:06:44,760]: Plus four years as an undergrad [00:06:46,459]: So you know [00:06:46,799]: So you spent 44 years at Cornell at that point [00:06:48,980]: So not a newcomer [00:06:50,220]: No [00:06:50,660]: And by the way the guy who was the provost at the time was a friend of mine [00:06:55,880]: He was he I knew him from the day he got to Cornell [00:06:59,540]: He’s now the president [00:07:01,619]: And it’s useful [00:07:03,140]: So when I when I told I knew I was coming here and I asked a trustee I’m going to be talking to Tucker or anything [00:07:11,179]: And you’d like me to somehow get out there [00:07:13,660]: Not that I’m going to be there talking man [00:07:15,899]: But it would be stupid to miss it [00:07:18,279]: And I sent a quick email to the president and said is there anything [00:07:21,299]: And he gave me a couple of bullets [00:07:22,279]: But they were obvious [00:07:23,119]: They were the obvious things [00:07:24,779]: And the second mistake they made is eventually they put together some and the Daily Sun was doing what I call the daily column where where they publish an article on what an asshole I was [00:07:37,559]: Right [00:07:37,880]: And they’d write an article about the football team and get the NSA [00:07:40,760]: By the way did we mention columns and asshole [00:07:42,619]: Right [00:07:42,940]: That sort of thing [00:07:44,640]: So so they they finally wrote a letter denouncing me [00:07:50,279]: And it was signed interestingly by the president who I didn’t really like that much that president the provost who’s a friend of mine which was ironic the chief of police which was super ironic [00:08:02,019]: And a couple other administrators who was missing was one of our deans the dean of arts and sciences who didn’t sign it [00:08:08,700]: He would have been an obvious signer [00:08:10,399]: And he once said to me what good is tenure if you don’t have free speech [00:08:15,000]: Now they weren’t trying to hurt me [00:08:17,299]: They were just trying to put out a fire and put it out [00:08:20,299]: So in that sense they did the right thing [00:08:22,720]: Did they call and tell you they were going to denounce you before [00:08:24,980]: No [00:08:25,500]: And by the way I know a number of trustees at this point and they all said they should have just shut up [00:08:31,019]: So that was a mistake [00:08:33,460]: More recently a guy named Rickman I think it was you know made that statement about it being exhilarated that Israel got attacked [00:08:40,440]: Right [00:08:40,840]: And he shouldn’t have said that [00:08:41,979]: Right [00:08:42,140]: That was stupid [00:08:42,640]: But what people don’t understand is that universities are a funny combination of free speech and academic freedom [00:08:51,340]: We’re supposed to foster speech [00:08:53,080]: And that means dumb speech [00:08:54,580]: That means sometimes hostile speech [00:08:56,380]: Right [00:08:56,640]: And you know that Joel [00:08:58,039]: And then the president denounced him [00:09:00,239]: Same president [00:09:01,260]: The one I didn’t really like the one who denounced me [00:09:03,820]: And she said this is only the second time I’ve denounced something a faculty member said [00:09:07,200]: And I go yeah I was the first [00:09:08,799]: Hate to brag but we’re pretty confident this show is the most vehemently pro dog podcast you’re ever going to see 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put out [00:10:47,200]: What helped is several trustees wandered in the president’s office and said don’t even think about doing something stupid here [00:10:55,440]: So I had [00:10:56,619]: One day I put out a tweet talking about how lovely Cornell is [00:11:00,960]: Cornell is a phenomenal institution [00:11:03,099]: So my loyalty to Cornell is tainting my vision [00:11:06,559]: But Cornell is not like the other Ivy’s [00:11:08,640]: It’s not Harvard [00:11:09,320]: It’s not Princeton [00:11:10,000]: It is in the middle of this idyllic setting with [00:11:14,280]: We have 200 gorges [00:11:15,880]: The people at Cornell are self selected [00:11:18,280]: They’re the ones who want to live here right [00:11:19,799]: If there was a college in your neighborhood it would be filled with people who love the outdoors [00:11:26,140]: It would be filled with people who like this way of life right [00:11:28,840]: Cornell has that [00:11:31,559]: And so [00:11:32,440]: By the way it’s ranked number one in a critical category [00:11:35,340]: It has more top 10 ranked departments than any school in the country [00:11:40,719]: And that’s because we have so many different things going on here [00:11:44,200]: So it’s a very special place [00:11:45,780]: So the letter denouncing you was really just kabuki [00:11:48,700]: I mean it was just [00:11:49,400]: It was kabuki yeah [00:11:49,960]: It was trying to just put out the fire and it did [00:11:54,200]: And I paid a price [00:11:57,659]: I lost a consulting gig at Pfizer because of it because I was now a Nazi you know and [00:12:04,239]: Wait Pfizer didn’t stand by you [00:12:05,960]: I had consult there for 20 years and they were going to Zoom consulting [00:12:10,380]: And Pfizer doesn’t need a controversial consultant either [00:12:13,619]: So they just cleared the deck as well [00:12:15,880]: So I don’t hold it against [00:12:16,859]: I hold against [00:12:17,760]: What I hold against Pfizer is the vaccine [00:12:19,960]: I don’t hold [00:12:20,919]: The guys I consult with at Pfizer were great guys [00:12:24,119]: And Pfizer they were trying to get their job done right stuff like that [00:12:27,679]: Why do you as an organic chemist why do you hold the vaccine against them [00:12:32,859]: Because I think it killed a lot of people and they knew it [00:12:37,780]: I read the [00:12:38,799]: So I started writing about COVID right away [00:12:40,919]: You can imagine right [00:12:41,760]: A scientist [00:12:42,340]: I started networking [00:12:43,400]: I started trying to figure it out [00:12:44,200]: I’m in a group called Doctors for COVID Ethics for four years we had every major anti vaxxer on the planet go through this group [00:12:51,679]: Wait so you’re a consultant to Pfizer [00:12:55,000]: You’re a pretty famous probably one of the most famous organic chemists in the country [00:12:59,739]: So if you say the Pfizer COVID vaccine killed a lot of people it can’t be dismissed as crank talk [00:13:05,780]: Well it could be because I’m not a vaccine expert [00:13:09,299]: I’m an organic chemist [00:13:10,840]: So I have certain technical skills that probably help me burrow [00:13:15,340]: And as the genetics major as an undergrad that helps me [00:13:17,919]: I don’t use the biochem or the genetics but it allows me to sort of read stuff [00:13:24,859]: But you think it killed a lot of people [00:13:26,799]: Well the Pfizer papers which are papers written about the clinical trials and the VAERS database show huge number of problems right [00:13:36,719]: And so the Doctor for COVID Ethics we had every famous anti vaxxer [00:13:41,140]: One of the first ones I went to it was Bobby Kennedy [00:13:44,000]: And we had you name it you name an anti vaxxer you name the Malones the Ryan Coles the Bryan Artises you can go on and on and on [00:13:53,580]: They all went through this group [00:13:56,700]: And we talked about things three or four years became the Is anyone keeping track of how many Americans were killed by it [00:14:04,119]: Well it’s very hard because first of all every flu death got absorbed into the COVID stats [00:14:10,700]: So flu disappeared which can’t be true [00:14:13,280]: And if it did because we were locked down then how’d we all get COVID right [00:14:16,780]: So there’s now studies coming out from other countries because we have too many people who will look very bad when this data comes out [00:14:28,820]: But the Japanese for example have come out and said some very strong things about what didn’t happen [00:14:34,059]: The head of the Japanese medical system I think came out and said that you could correlate the number of deaths with the number of shots right [00:14:43,059]: And so now that the gag order has been released scientific studies are making it into the literature [00:14:49,659]: And there’s already thousands [00:14:51,700]: Gotta be one of the great man made disasters of our lifetimes [00:14:54,880]: The lockdown too [00:14:56,619]: I think you mentioned or someone did in one of your podcasts about the travesty maybe it was Walter about the travesty of locking down [00:15:07,539]: You show me you tell me how old a kid is and I can tell you what subjects he does not or she does not know [00:15:15,780]: So if you were studying trigonometry the year that everything was locked down you don’t know trigonometry at all [00:15:22,820]: We pretended to teach them [00:15:24,460]: They pretended to learn [00:15:25,719]: Nothing happened [00:15:26,619]: And do you see that now [00:15:28,179]: Well you could see it going through the system [00:15:30,419]: So for example our first year grads who were taking organic chemistry went during lockdown when they showed up they were very weak in organic chemistry [00:15:37,820]: Yeah you could see it [00:15:38,979]: So think of the poor kid who’s five years old trying to learn how to read and write and everything through a mask right [00:15:48,960]: And there’s imprinting periods right [00:15:51,059]: There’s periods where you learn to read and write or you’re kind of in trouble [00:15:54,840]: And so it was disastrous [00:15:57,119]: It was absurd [00:15:57,859]: And the whole thing was done by Fauci [00:15:59,940]: But how could And our Zoom group by the way had Scott Alice [00:16:02,840]: And so I asked Scott I said Scott was it malicious [00:16:08,280]: Fauci and Burks [00:16:08,919]: What they do is malicious [00:16:09,919]: And I think it was [00:16:12,900]: I mean I think there’s evil forces behind those two [00:16:15,099]: But he took a different tact [00:16:16,760]: He said you cannot fathom how stupid those two are [00:16:22,260]: That was his answer [00:16:23,359]: He said Fauci never gave a scientific argument [00:16:25,780]: Never [00:16:25,960]: And he said one day This is astonishing [00:16:27,820]: He said one day This is all recorded [00:16:30,119]: So I’m not you know talking behind his back [00:16:33,179]: There is a recording on the internet with this [00:16:37,520]: He says one day he walks in with a scientific paper that Alice had read [00:16:41,900]: And so he’s thinking whoa Fauci’s actually going to say something scientific [00:16:45,979]: Fauci went to say encephalomyelitis [00:16:50,219]: Now if you work at the 7 Eleven you might stumble on that one [00:16:55,059]: But if you’re head of the entire health organization you shouldn’t [00:16:58,739]: And he said he botched it so bad it was unintelligible [00:17:01,380]: And Alice said come again [00:17:02,940]: What’d you just say [00:17:03,679]: And Fauci wouldn’t repeat it [00:17:05,079]: He said Burks was yanking shit off the internet making pie charts having not a clue what it meant [00:17:12,319]: Not a clue [00:17:13,420]: That’s terrifying [00:17:14,500]: Now here’s the Chris from Alice though [00:17:16,640]: He didn’t speak up I don’t think [00:17:19,939]: Fauci [00:17:21,079]: Alice [00:17:21,660]: I think he sat there [00:17:24,002]: Can I ask you to back up just a moment though so you’re describing now incompetence but you alluded earlier to malice [00:17:29,842]: What do you think the dark forces behind Birx and Fauci were [00:17:33,682]: Well I think they first of all they love the fact we’re talking about whether it came out of a lab in Wuhan because that way we’re debating whether to blame the Chinese or not right [00:17:43,702]: When in fact I think it came out of a lab probably in North Carolina [00:17:48,042]: A number of guys have tracked both the disease and the vaccine back years before it showed up on our dinner plate [00:18:00,502]: I think low level of malice would be [00:18:04,822]: Wait you think it came out of a lab in North Carolina [00:18:07,582]: Yeah Ralph Baric [00:18:10,142]: Yeah you can follow a guy named David Martin has followed the patent trail and an artificial organism can be patented not a natural one [00:18:22,002]: You can follow the patent trail on COVID and you can follow the vaccine patent trail and watch it get moved around moved from point A to point B [00:18:31,882]: If it was created in North Carolina how did it get to Wuhan and what was that [00:18:36,702]: We were funding research in Wuhan because we were not allowed to do game of game of sorry I keep tapping the table [00:18:44,602]: Oh it’s all right [00:18:45,542]: This is a topic that deserves some table topping [00:18:47,302]: Well I’ve done podcasts where I have headphones and I have three Boston Terriers soon four and they snore [00:18:55,922]: I can’t hear them because my headphones are noise dampening [00:18:58,582]: And then I listen to the podcast and I hear this humongous amount of snoring behind me so I’m aware of background noise [00:19:04,742]: You didn’t bring the Terriers this morning [00:19:05,802]: I didn’t bring the Terriers no [00:19:07,342]: So but you I just want to flesh this out a bit [00:19:11,322]: You think it was created or begun in North Carolina then brought to Wuhan for [00:19:18,142]: To be elaborated to be studied to be so I think we took everything offshore because it got gain of function got banned in the U S but I don’t think we banned it [00:19:28,922]: There were something like 36 bioweapons labs in Ukraine of U S origin [00:19:35,042]: Yes [00:19:36,042]: So why is Ukraine perfect [00:19:37,662]: Ukraine’s perfect [00:19:38,302]: To run a bioweapons lab you need first world infrastructure and third world people to test shit on [00:19:48,342]: Ukraine’s pretty much got that right [00:19:51,182]: Because Fauci for example in the United States when he had to do clinical trials when one of his lower rank they’d go to foster care [00:20:02,242]: They would do clinical trials on foster children [00:20:05,442]: What [00:20:05,922]: Yeah you got to read Kennedy’s book [00:20:08,342]: Yeah [00:20:09,322]: He did he did an estimate he they use an estimate 13 14 000 foster kids to do clinical trials [00:20:15,862]: They said the kids would figure out they’re getting sick and they wouldn’t want to take the meds [00:20:21,542]: That’s so that’s like Nazi [00:20:23,102]: So I think Fauci’s been been doing damage to people and killing people for many many years [00:20:27,602]: Yeah [00:20:28,082]: So we made a pledge only to advertise products that we would use or do use [00:20:33,442]: And here’s one that I personally used this morning [00:20:36,502]: It’s Liberty Safe [00:20:37,782]: There’s a huge one in my garage [00:20:39,702]: It is the company that protects your valuables [00:20:43,042]: High end safe lines represent the pinnacle of American made [00:20:46,662]: They’re made here in the US pinnacle of American made security and craftsmanship [00:20:50,582]: They’re more than just safes [00:20:51,762]: They are a safeguard [00:20:53,902]: They’ve got seven gauge thick American steel and they’re beautiful [00:20:59,342]: Any kind of paint color you want polished hardware we have one [00:21:04,382]: They’re really good looking [00:21:05,442]: They do not detract from a room [00:21:07,822]: They enhance a room [00:21:09,422]: I keep my father’s shotguns and all kinds of other things in there [00:21:11,922]: You can keep jewelry money anything else that you want to keep safe [00:21:14,962]: When you put your belongings in a Liberty Safe you can just relax [00:21:19,822]: Safes come equipped with motion activated lighting drawers for storage locking bars dehumidifiers and up to 150 minutes of certified fire resistance [00:21:28,242]: You can customize them any way you want [00:21:30,262]: They are the best [00:21:31,762]: We highly recommend them [00:21:33,422]: Visit libertysafe com to find a deal or learn about how you can protect what matters most to you [00:21:38,982]: Demand the best [00:21:40,142]: Liberty Safe [00:21:41,042]: But to do clinical trials on foster kids I thought after the Second World War when both the Japanese and the Germans were doing things like that [00:21:48,122]: The Nuremberg Code [00:21:49,642]: Well exactly [00:21:50,282]: It was codified there for scientists but for the rest of the world and certainly American culture we were taught that testing potentially dangerous drugs on people without their full consent or on the weakest among us or you know euthanizing mental patients or whatever all that was bad [00:22:08,662]: Right [00:22:09,082]: I thought that was one of the big lessons of the Second World War [00:22:12,062]: Well as we both know there are no rules [00:22:16,542]: Well that’s boy is that the truth [00:22:18,582]: There are no rules right [00:22:20,322]: There are none [00:22:21,682]: There are rules for us you and me but there are subjects for which people could be thrown in prison [00:22:31,602]: You know a great example would be Diddy [00:22:35,722]: So what happened with Diddy [00:22:37,802]: I think what happened with Diddy is Diddy had a bunch of very incriminating tapes [00:22:41,962]: I think you know Epstein Light [00:22:45,302]: And I think they arrested him to round it all up all the data [00:22:50,162]: I think they did it to get all the data away from Diddy because he was being sued in civil court [00:22:56,842]: And the guilty party said we got to get it out of there before the civil court gets it [00:23:02,482]: And so they arrest Diddy [00:23:03,922]: What’d they just convict him of [00:23:05,182]: Nothing [00:23:06,562]: They could have put him away for 20 years based on what he did to Justin Bieber [00:23:11,742]: Right [00:23:12,182]: They didn’t even get him on any of that [00:23:13,962]: So it’s a classic [00:23:15,102]: It’s a classic case [00:23:16,342]: I know I sound like a nutcase but you’ve had a lot of nutcases on your show [00:23:21,482]: I had a brother who’s trying to dial me back his day [00:23:24,742]: They’re going to think you’re a nutcase if you talk about all the things you think about [00:23:27,582]: And I go well I think that ship has sailed [00:23:29,662]: You know as I said to well I thought that was the whole point of academic research was the you know the predicate for it [00:23:35,262]: The basis of it is free thinking [00:23:38,862]: Well but according to Douglas Murray I’m not supposed to talk about it unless I’m an expert [00:23:44,042]: Well you are a demonstrable expert in your area I mean [00:23:48,442]: Which is not Diddy [00:23:50,562]: It’s not Diddy [00:23:51,942]: You’re not a tenured professor of Diddy studies at Cornell [00:23:54,942]: We could have it [00:23:56,322]: You know we have subjects [00:23:59,062]: So you think the point of arresting Diddy was to shut down inquiry into what Diddy was doing [00:24:06,382]: Get the data right [00:24:07,182]: Well that’s clearly the point of the first Jeffrey Epstein arrest [00:24:11,882]: Hunter Biden’s laptop [00:24:12,782]: Tell me your view of Hunter Biden’s laptop [00:24:15,122]: Well Sidney what’s her name [00:24:18,662]: Come on [00:24:19,282]: Sidney Powell [00:24:20,342]: Yep [00:24:21,622]: Elite lawyer [00:24:22,782]: Now down a few notches because she worked for Trump and that always gets you in trouble [00:24:26,962]: Yeah [00:24:27,322]: Said that if Hunter Biden’s laptop were ever released [00:24:31,962]: No if Anthony Weiner’s laptop were ever released the government would fall [00:24:38,042]: Weiner’s laptop had kill switches in it [00:24:41,462]: I mean it was filled with crap that wasn’t supposed to be there [00:24:44,922]: We never get to see it [00:24:47,022]: Supposedly nine cops watched the videos on Weiner’s laptop [00:24:54,122]: They had to keep leaving the room because they couldn’t stand what they were seeing [00:24:58,442]: And all nine are now dead [00:25:01,142]: And there’s names and faces and deadness right [00:25:04,362]: They’re real people [00:25:05,502]: Now you can say well maybe they died for other reasons [00:25:07,382]: I go but it’s still nine cops [00:25:11,082]: And you know it’s like the five cops who died after January 6th right [00:25:15,742]: Four of them were suicides [00:25:18,582]: Out of according to AI there were about 80 cops really in the thick of things [00:25:24,122]: Four of them died from suicide [00:25:26,822]: I don’t need any more information to wonder what the hell is going on there [00:25:30,422]: That’s one of those standalone observations where I go that’s not right [00:25:34,182]: The math of that doesn’t work for me [00:25:37,682]: I’ve got pictures of Ukrainian [00:25:40,002]: See I’m going off topic [00:25:41,382]: I’ve got pictures of known Ukrainian operatives with the QAnon shaman guy [00:25:48,902]: I think the horns in January 6th [00:25:50,482]: At January 6th [00:25:51,782]: What is that all about [00:25:53,862]: I’ve got videos [00:25:55,142]: That seems totally normal [00:25:56,182]: Yeah yeah totally [00:25:57,222]: I’ve got videos [00:25:57,862]: With the National Guard 100 yards away not doing anything [00:26:00,682]: I’ve got videos of John Sullivan right [00:26:04,182]: The guy who was supposedly Antifa but Antifa said no he’s a Fed [00:26:09,122]: Don’t talk to him [00:26:10,482]: Who then filmed Ashley Babbitt getting shot [00:26:13,002]: This guy’s getting around [00:26:14,782]: What’s your image of an Antifa person [00:26:17,542]: Lost soul [00:26:19,082]: Tattoos everywhere right [00:26:21,282]: No meaning in life right [00:26:23,422]: Yeah and no path forward really [00:26:25,222]: I mean these are nihilists [00:26:26,582]: These are society’s treads [00:26:27,802]: If they’re real that is [00:26:28,982]: If they’re legit [00:26:29,842]: If they’re real [00:26:30,182]: But I mean if you look at the mugshots of Antifa arrests or the people who came to my house Antifa there [00:26:35,122]: I mean these are you know obviously I disagree [00:26:38,222]: They threaten my family [00:26:39,102]: I don’t like them and all that [00:26:40,362]: But you also feel like these are like one step above homeless [00:26:43,442]: Like these are losers [00:26:45,542]: Yeah right [00:26:49,122]: And so if he’s Antifa it’s really odd that he was a nationally ranked cyclist [00:26:56,442]: Are you serious [00:26:57,782]: What I know about nationally ranked anythings is their lives have purpose [00:27:02,602]: Now there’s a mugshot [00:27:03,962]: You follow this Patriot Front story [00:27:06,302]: I’m really this [00:27:07,622]: This is now the helmets on the leash to the jungle gym is on the Patriot Front guys [00:27:11,742]: Those guys who’d stop around looking like neo Nazis who also were buff and had no pot bellies and covered their faces and get arrested and they’re handcuffed with their backpacks still on and their their their megaphone still over their shoulders [00:27:24,442]: And and and and then I saw mugshots of them [00:27:29,422]: Not a single tattoo [00:27:31,422]: Yeah no tattoos [00:27:33,262]: These are neo Nazis [00:27:34,222]: Not a single tattoo [00:27:36,582]: They didn’t have like Waffen SS on their cheeks [00:27:42,762]: So so we are in this big Walter Kurnish [00:27:48,842]: We’re in this made for the Internet plot [00:27:52,542]: Walter is great in his description of Bill [00:27:56,062]: I’ve been tracking the Mangione story [00:27:58,182]: It’s not the right story [00:27:59,962]: There’s something wrong [00:28:01,562]: And I Walter laid it out [00:28:05,062]: Now what Walter didn’t say is who’s behind him [00:28:09,262]: That’s obviously the question [00:28:10,502]: I mean you can look at all of these different stories particularly the acts of violence which are because they are acts of violence are you know examined much more closely than any other kind of act [00:28:21,082]: And it doesn’t it doesn’t make any sense [00:28:23,702]: I mean the shooting of Trump a year ago in Butler Pennsylvania I wrote about that sense [00:28:28,602]: Everything [00:28:29,102]: Do you know what I just read the other day [00:28:30,942]: The guy who shot Thomas Crooks [00:28:35,522]: There were bullets flying all over that place but it was a catastrophically poorly set up defense of Trump [00:28:43,502]: But the guy who shot Thomas Crooks was the same guy who organized the protection of Trump [00:28:51,622]: And they said oh you know he didn’t get convicted of anything [00:28:54,602]: And other guys didn’t [00:28:55,282]: I go well so the guy who was in charge of making sure that after the assassination was done he popped the assassin is somehow not getting prosecuted [00:29:04,102]: Why am I not shocked [00:29:06,762]: So you’re saying he was the Jack Ruby figure here [00:29:09,422]: He was a Jack Ruby figure [00:29:10,922]: Yes [00:29:11,882]: So so what was odd about that story [00:29:14,602]: Well first of all all the news agencies were there [00:29:18,122]: This was a totally irrelevant rally in an irrelevant place [00:29:23,862]: Butler Pennsylvania [00:29:25,742]: And there’s a stranger story there [00:29:28,902]: And again I just pick up these shards and sometimes they fit together into a story [00:29:32,362]: And sometimes it’s just [00:29:34,062]: Put it in your head keep it there until you get more detail [00:29:38,682]: There’s a guy sitting behind Trump [00:29:43,242]: Name Joseph Fusca [00:29:45,162]: Fusca is his last name [00:29:48,002]: I’ve seen him before many times [00:29:50,642]: He was by the QAnon guys which are a bunch of whack jobs [00:29:56,522]: Said to be you’re not completely said to be John F [00:30:00,482]: Kennedy Jr [00:30:01,662]: Waiting to come back and save the world [00:30:03,802]: And I’m going oh you guys have lost your minds [00:30:06,502]: Finally you’ve really gone [00:30:08,442]: It doesn’t matter that that’s a total crock [00:30:12,602]: Fusca is this guy [00:30:13,842]: And they said now his name is Fusca and whatever you know blah blah blah blah blah [00:30:17,442]: But he’s one of supposedly JFK Jr in disguise [00:30:21,502]: Fusca was there sitting right behind Trump [00:30:24,822]: I go off all the rallies [00:30:27,602]: There he is [00:30:28,162]: Who is he [00:30:28,662]: I don’t know [00:30:30,342]: And what’s really interesting Trump gets shot [00:30:32,602]: Everyone’s reacting and Fusca’s not [00:30:36,062]: And then there’s two pieces of footage [00:30:37,822]: Now when you say you’ve seen him before you’ve seen him in photographs before [00:30:40,442]: Oh he had been talked about [00:30:42,042]: I’ve dug down some deep rabbit holes and find this guy [00:30:45,162]: So one of the things you discover you know this as well as anyone [00:30:48,942]: You think you’re going down a rabbit hole and you discover Gobekli Tepe [00:30:53,682]: You get down the rabbit hole and you go there’s an entire ecosystem down here that people don’t know exists [00:31:03,242]: It’s like once you ask how did Kennedy get killed [00:31:07,142]: And you go oh boy you know that’s troubling right [00:31:10,182]: Building 7 which you talked with Ron Johnson who by the way was in our Doc Zoom group right [00:31:14,562]: When I’m talking we had everyone [00:31:16,022]: We had everyone [00:31:18,462]: Once you go on one or two of these and you go I can’t trust anything [00:31:24,162]: And I work in a field where you’re supposed to be able to get the facts and say now here’s an odd story [00:31:31,102]: A friend of mine is binding all my annual reviews that I write [00:31:34,082]: I write one blog a year [00:31:35,842]: I’ve been thinking about why [00:31:38,822]: And I really [00:31:39,682]: Can you just pause and describe what that is [00:31:42,242]: That’s really the reason I wanted to talk to you was because your interview is well known among people who are paying attention [00:31:49,462]: What is it and why do you do it [00:31:50,822]: So the people trying to wreck our civilization want you to be passive [00:31:55,622]: They want you weak so they can control you [00:31:59,222]: Weakness is their goal [00:32:01,622]: No thanks [00:32:02,482]: Our friends at Beam a proud American company understand that our country can only be great if its people are strong [00:32:10,362]: And that’s why they’ve created a new creatine product to help listeners like you stay mentally sharp and physically fit [00:32:17,602]: People like to mock creatine [00:32:19,062]: CNN doesn’t like creatine at all [00:32:21,562]: But people buy it because it works [00:32:24,322]: Beam’s creatine can help you improve your strength your brain health your longevity [00:32:28,162]: It’s completely free of sugar and synthetic garbage that’s in almost everything else that you eat [00:32:34,222]: Of course you don’t hear about it too much because again a population that is strong clear minded and physically capable is a threat to tyrants [00:32:44,642]: That’s why they want you playing video games [00:32:46,982]: To celebrate American strength actual American strength Beam is offering up to 30 off their best selling creatine for the next 48 hours [00:32:55,402]: Go to shopbeam com [00:32:57,102]: slash Tucker [00:32:58,222]: Use the code Tucker at checkout [00:33:00,222]: That’s shopbeam B E A M dot com slash Tucker [00:33:03,402]: Use the code Tucker for up to 30 off [00:33:05,522]: It’s built on core values integrity results no BS Beam [00:33:11,342]: We strongly recommend it [00:33:14,722]: So I stopped paying 100 attention to chemistry and started on the side looking at markets when I became a boomer with some wealth [00:33:23,282]: And I started paying [00:33:23,782]: And I became it was a tech bull [00:33:26,402]: And then by 98 I realized the markets were in trouble [00:33:30,182]: I’d read enough books read enough blogs read enough articles [00:33:34,542]: And so and then that naturally led me to politics because if you don’t understand politics you don’t understand economics [00:33:45,222]: And around 07 I wrote a I used to on this chat board I was at I’d write a summary at the end of the year [00:33:54,742]: And part of it was to make sure that my fairly extreme views weren’t costing me serious pain and suffering [00:34:03,802]: And instead of getting 200 clicks because this group is about 200 of us talking it went to like 4 000 [00:34:12,122]: I go what happened [00:34:12,682]: I said oh I put it on my blog [00:34:14,902]: Someone told me that [00:34:15,922]: So in 09 I decided to do it seriously [00:34:18,582]: I spent 30 years of investing [00:34:19,982]: So I wrote this thing [00:34:22,042]: I said 30 years of investing from the cheap seats was the title [00:34:27,662]: And it went wild actually [00:34:29,422]: And part of it was because I’d been highly successful as a rank amateur through the 90s as a tech bull [00:34:40,542]: I made 700 on WorldCom and then got out [00:34:45,101]: I made 700 on Dell Warner Lambert [00:34:48,422]: I thought I was a genius [00:34:51,355]: And and so I had years where I made over 100 without leverage and and uh and and then I got out and I got out due to Y2K which turns out to be a grift [00:35:03,815]: Yeah [00:35:04,215]: It took me decades to figure that out [00:35:06,695]: I thought I just blew it but no it was Silicon Valley selling software and hardware and I can make that story if you want but it’s not worth it [00:35:13,795]: Um and then and then so so I started paying attention to politics and then I just went deeper and deeper down rabbit holes [00:35:23,555]: I see I know I’m reading about Putin in 2012 trying to understand what’s going on there and stuff like that [00:35:30,095]: So um so I just kind of naturally got on rabbit holes [00:35:33,795]: Now you can’t market a blog worse than writing one a year right [00:35:38,315]: That’s about as bad as you get and I don’t charge for it [00:35:40,795]: So there’s that [00:35:41,675]: And and then I realized so um the reason it works for me is if I wrote a blog once a week most of them would be garbage because imagine how many blogs I would have written about how Trump and Elon are best friends right [00:35:59,395]: And now it seems irrelevant that I’d be writing about how Trump and Elon are enemies [00:36:03,875]: And then a month from now it’ll be irrelevant because they’ll be best friends again [00:36:07,455]: You’re right [00:36:07,795]: And so you could I could not write a weekly blog [00:36:10,975]: And so what I do is is I by writing once a year it gives me a long time to think about [00:36:16,775]: So I get the idea and then I sort of watch and go Oh look at that [00:36:19,835]: That’s a puzzle piece right there [00:36:21,835]: So it essentially is book length 250 300 pages every fall and and you don’t charge for it [00:36:33,715]: And I don’t and I you also can’t write it in March [00:36:37,035]: That’s not a year in review [00:36:38,955]: So I usually end up with about 700 pages of links and notes [00:36:42,595]: And if if I see something we talked before about about using trite metaphors you know how we both hate it and but once in a while I’ll see a way to insult a person [00:36:51,875]: I’ll go Oh I’m saving that right now [00:36:54,375]: The other reason it’s really great I think where do people find it [00:36:57,695]: It’s published at Peak Prosperity and and it’s my link it’s my pin tweet [00:37:03,485]: So it stays up there all year [00:37:05,095]: And then until I publish the next one and it gives me the chance to collect the information to ponder what’s going on in that year [00:37:14,115]: And then and some things become irrelevant so I don’t write about them [00:37:17,415]: Some things are not some things become trite right [00:37:20,795]: But I think my analysis of the 2016 election for example is really good [00:37:26,655]: Prophetic line [00:37:30,055]: I was watching BET [00:37:33,275]: Please don’t get me to explain why I’m watching BET and black entertainment today or something whatever [00:37:39,195]: And some burly black guy’s talking about Trump and he says forget the messenger [00:37:44,295]: Listen to the message [00:37:45,135]: Listen to the message [00:37:45,535]: I’m going holy moly [00:37:47,055]: Right [00:37:47,455]: Turns out he was the head of the end of of the new Black Panther party [00:37:53,915]: I go Trump just got endorsed by the Black Panthers [00:37:59,335]: So I and then I saw Jimmy Brown the running back say he will be a president of the people [00:38:04,875]: And all of a sudden and so I wrote it might just be a flicker but I think the black community is moving to the right [00:38:14,715]: And boy was that ahead of its time [00:38:17,975]: And so what I won’t do is write about something that everyone’s writing about [00:38:22,155]: Why [00:38:23,355]: Yeah [00:38:23,415]: The other problem I face is that I don’t write about stuff I’m an expert [00:38:28,335]: I write about stuff that I know nothing [00:38:31,815]: And so when I wrote about I’ve been following Putin but when the Ukraine war came first thing I noticed I bet you noticed it too it wasn’t a war [00:38:42,395]: It was a police action and they weren’t killing people [00:38:47,295]: They were moving troops across the border [00:38:49,595]: They were talking to Ukrainians [00:38:51,595]: And I kept saying to my wife this is not a war [00:38:53,835]: And you’d see some grandmother going ah this is just really terrible [00:38:56,675]: You know and I’m going that’s not a war [00:38:58,115]: You want to see a war [00:38:59,135]: Look at Baghdad day one [00:39:01,115]: That’s a war [00:39:01,755]: That’s what a war looks like [00:39:02,775]: Right [00:39:03,035]: You’d see an explosion from 20 miles away [00:39:05,455]: You wouldn’t know what blew up [00:39:07,135]: Right [00:39:07,715]: Like my wife thought I was nuts [00:39:08,975]: I go it’s not a war [00:39:09,795]: It’s not a war [00:39:10,275]: Well it became a war because as you and I both know NATO wanted a war [00:39:15,755]: And so it morphed from being a police action which I think Putin was trying to throw a torch in and saying back off on this whole NATO thing [00:39:25,635]: And so when I wrote about that I found about 20 to 40 guys who were trying to get it right which includes you and includes guys like Max Abramson [00:39:37,955]: Do I know that [00:39:38,615]: Do I have that right [00:39:39,775]: Glenn Greenwald the guy who died what’s his name [00:39:44,215]: The guy who got killed by the Ukrainians [00:39:46,655]: Gonzalo Lira [00:39:46,835]: Gonzalo Lira [00:39:48,155]: An American who was murdered by the Ukrainian government [00:39:49,495]: We could have gotten him out with a phone call and we chose not to [00:39:52,435]: Because the narrative was Putin’s bad Ukraine’s a bunch of really nice guys super nice guys [00:39:58,115]: It’s a democracy [00:39:59,315]: What a crock of shit [00:40:01,135]: That was a lie from head to toe [00:40:02,955]: We wanted a war [00:40:03,935]: We still want a war [00:40:04,635]: I have intelligence friends too not like you but I have them [00:40:08,995]: And I was talking to one the other day [00:40:10,595]: I think he likes to talk to me because he can talk to me about these subjects [00:40:16,155]: And in his universe I’m the only guy [00:40:18,995]: He can talk to for which he doesn’t have to worry because everyone else in his world is connected to everyone else in his world [00:40:27,415]: I think he likes to have real honest conversations [00:40:29,475]: One day we’re on the phone he says do you do signal [00:40:32,675]: I go yeah [00:40:33,235]: So we went to signal [00:40:34,175]: He said someone was listening to us [00:40:38,255]: Boy [00:40:39,415]: There’s a lot of that [00:40:40,395]: There’s a lot of that [00:40:41,355]: Yeah I know [00:40:41,895]: So there’s always a narrative [00:40:43,355]: There’s always one narrative and we’re now in an era where you only get to talk about that narrative [00:40:47,095]: You know that I know that [00:40:48,255]: You and I we’re just mutually [00:40:50,695]: Yeah [00:40:51,015]: And the penalties for straying from the story are real [00:40:55,155]: Yeah totally [00:40:56,235]: I mean whatever [00:40:58,595]: There’s been no age in human history where telling the truth the real truth is rewarded [00:41:03,835]: So where you first really won me over [00:41:08,395]: So you and I agree that when you were young you were a punk [00:41:11,555]: Yeah [00:41:13,095]: The fact that you’re so proud of the metamorphosis is great [00:41:19,095]: It may have come before this but where I noticed it was the Las Vegas shootings where is we kind of talked a little bit at breakfast [00:41:29,235]: Here’s the funny story [00:41:30,655]: They interviewed that night a guy named Mike Kronk [00:41:33,995]: And Mike Kronk [00:41:34,695]: The night of the shooting [00:41:35,915]: The night of the shooting [00:41:36,475]: That was 2017 maybe [00:41:38,435]: I can’t remember [00:41:39,775]: Yeah [00:41:40,895]: And Mike Kronk told this story [00:41:43,015]: He didn’t look very emotional which I found a little odd [00:41:45,655]: I by the way think all the shootings within an error bar are not what they appear to be [00:41:51,555]: I’ll take it all the way back to Columbine if you want [00:41:55,435]: But Mike Kronk talks about his friend getting shot three times in the chest from hundreds of yards away [00:42:03,175]: And later a marksman said not possible [00:42:07,875]: Too much spray [00:42:09,255]: A sniper would be required to hit a guy three times [00:42:13,435]: And the guy was just doing this right [00:42:16,935]: And Mike says his friend stuck his fingers in the bullet his own bullet holes to stop the bleeding [00:42:23,575]: I’m going now you’re lying [00:42:26,395]: Why is Mike lying [00:42:27,655]: Right away red flag [00:42:29,255]: Why is Mike lying [00:42:30,335]: And who is he by the way [00:42:31,195]: Well that’s a great question [00:42:33,655]: So Mike then finishes how they put him on a cart and wheeled him out [00:42:38,855]: And may I just ask why [00:42:40,335]: I’ll tell you in a minute [00:42:40,955]: Why did you know he was lying when he said his friend put his own fingers [00:42:43,955]: Because you don’t you don’t get shot three times in the chest and provide your own health care [00:42:49,235]: Fair [00:42:49,975]: Fair [00:42:50,335]: Right [00:42:50,715]: We thought this through when we started this podcast a year ago and we decided we’re never advertising anything that we or people on our staff don’t use [00:42:58,435]: Period [00:42:58,855]: We’re only partnering with companies that we agree with and endorse actually in our personal lives [00:43:06,115]: So we want to announce a new partnership with a survival company we trust most [00:43:10,535]: Last Country Supply is the name of our collaboration [00:43:13,495]: Last Country Supply [00:43:15,015]: I have a big surplus of survival food from that great company [00:43:18,775]: If you get a bucket of food with a 25 year shelf life 2 000 calories a day potatoes rice bread drinks you feel a lot better [00:43:28,255]: Let’s say there’s an EMP attack or civil disturbance and you don’t know what could happen in the future you are prepared and you are protecting your family with Last Country Supply products [00:43:40,775]: So head to LastCountrySupply com to shop for our new collection bulk up now [00:43:45,655]: There is no scenario where you will regret being prepared [00:43:49,755]: So then like YouTube you see it rolls over 15 seconds and then it goes to the next YouTube [00:43:56,695]: We’re watching Vegas like you watch 9 11 right [00:44:00,355]: It was really 500 people [00:44:02,555]: It is the biggest shooting since probably Gettysburg [00:44:06,235]: Yes [00:44:06,915]: Right [00:44:07,575]: When was the last time you heard a gun antagonist say remember Vegas [00:44:13,655]: We got to get rid of guns [00:44:16,275]: Right [00:44:16,495]: And you know why [00:44:18,495]: So it rolls to the next interview and it’s Mike Crock New Network same guy [00:44:23,075]: He tells the same story [00:44:24,155]: Now he’s looking a little more emotional and his story changes just a little just a little around the edges [00:44:30,995]: And then it rolls to the next interview and there’s Mike Crock again [00:44:35,075]: And I go why [00:44:36,175]: You got 22 000 people and why are you interviewing Mike Crock [00:44:39,615]: And then there were oddities that always showing up like some lady walking through the crowd saying you’re all going to die tonight and they carted her away and things like that [00:44:46,975]: Yeah [00:44:47,615]: Yeah [00:44:48,055]: Weird stuff [00:44:49,315]: And so I tried to figure out who Mike Crock was [00:44:52,855]: He’s just some hick from Alaska [00:44:55,195]: Right [00:44:55,475]: He’s just some hick from Alaska [00:44:57,155]: After the fact I looked and just picture him holding an elk by the horns you know that he shot [00:45:04,335]: The next day the head of the police said there’s no way one guy did it [00:45:09,655]: The following day he said one guy did it [00:45:11,895]: Takes a long time to show one guy did it right [00:45:13,995]: That’s something you don’t know [00:45:15,835]: There’s a lot of debris before you figure that out [00:45:20,055]: There’s now a documentary called Route 41 [00:45:23,755]: So I dug into this [00:45:25,155]: What I noticed is you stayed with the story for about two weeks maybe and you were bringing up and Coulter jumped in you know Paddock was making money how playing video poker [00:45:37,135]: That’s his that’s the way he’s making a living [00:45:39,115]: That’s like saying I’m a professional crack head [00:45:42,795]: And then what happens is there was shooting all over the place [00:45:46,735]: There was shooting everywhere [00:45:48,295]: In the city that day [00:45:49,715]: In the city that night [00:45:51,855]: And so now there’s if you don’t believe me there’s this documentary called Route 41 and they got stuff I didn’t know about but they also got stuff that um that I so it’s kind of an answer key for me to use academic terms [00:46:03,475]: And if you watch Route 41 you will see there were shooters everywhere [00:46:07,395]: There are cop cameras showing shooters in it [00:46:09,855]: Remember the guy got shot in the leg up on the floor where Paddock was [00:46:13,295]: Yes [00:46:13,735]: Some guy named Jesus or something right [00:46:16,575]: Some illegal with two social security numbers [00:46:20,595]: Um and and and and then afterwards reporter tried to get to his house his house was being protected by by cars [00:46:29,635]: They had no license plates [00:46:31,535]: And then all of a sudden he goes to Mexico and when asked well where’d he go [00:46:36,035]: They said well he was planning a trip to Mexico [00:46:38,115]: So when I wrote it I said oh by the way Jesus when you get back could you stop in [00:46:41,935]: We’ve got some questions for you [00:46:43,715]: Right [00:46:44,275]: And then he comes back and he does one interview on Ellen DeGeneres [00:46:49,715]: And Alan introduced him saying and he’s there with a handler I had already seen [00:46:53,615]: I’m going wait a minute that guy I’ve been seeing that guy a lot that other guy [00:46:59,055]: So Jesus is looking at his feet [00:47:00,815]: His name isn’t Jesus but it’s something like that [00:47:03,735]: Alan introduced him saying this is the only interview you’re going to do and you got to get it off your chest [00:47:08,335]: I’m going oh shit here we go [00:47:10,095]: And then the handler’s doing all the talking Jesus is looking at his feet [00:47:15,375]: And then we never hear about Jesus again [00:47:17,595]: Probably he’s in some shallow grave somewhere because he’s too inconvenient [00:47:20,535]: But I tried to interview him at the time [00:47:23,835]: Yes [00:47:24,415]: Couldn’t get to him could you [00:47:24,975]: He drove to Mexico from Vegas [00:47:27,535]: Right [00:47:28,475]: Two of them [00:47:29,455]: Yeah [00:47:29,775]: Probably with an escort [00:47:31,015]: Yeah [00:47:31,295]: Then he came back [00:47:32,755]: And yeah I tried my hardest [00:47:34,475]: Now Alan works for the company that owns Mandalay [00:47:38,615]: His handler [00:47:39,135]: Yeah [00:47:40,015]: No no [00:47:41,675]: Alan DeGeneres [00:47:42,735]: Oh Alan [00:47:43,375]: I’m so sorry [00:47:44,435]: Yeah [00:47:44,895]: And so they’re buttoning it down [00:47:47,335]: Now what you see from Route 41 video is there was just an enormous amount of chaos [00:47:52,475]: There’s enormous numbers of shooters [00:47:55,655]: Even that night you were seeing videos from cab drivers saying they’re shooting over here they’re shooting over there [00:48:01,895]: And there would be some chaos but there’s way too much [00:48:05,195]: There’s guys who took audios and said here here bam bam bam bam bam here that that that that that that [00:48:11,675]: And so you could hear multiple guns the whole thing [00:48:13,795]: So then what happened [00:48:15,075]: Mike Cronk I start reading trauma surgeons saying there’s something wrong with the story [00:48:20,795]: You know if you get hit with you know what was it AR 15 or something [00:48:24,955]: Yeah [00:48:25,015]: And a 308 a bigger deer rifle [00:48:27,115]: You’re going to die out there [00:48:28,295]: You’re going to bleed out right there [00:48:29,515]: Even if it doesn’t hit a major artery you’re just going to turn your leg to jello [00:48:32,695]: Free chest wounds from a rifle [00:48:33,855]: Yeah [00:48:34,215]: So so what would he look like [00:48:36,875]: And so then I saw an interview of a of a young woman and she’s sitting there in a chair in the hospital and they’re interviewing her [00:48:42,935]: I’m going you look pretty perky [00:48:45,015]: And and and then Mike Cronk with a news crew goes in and interviews his friend [00:48:50,795]: Now first and foremost we know HIPAA says you ain’t bringing a news crew into a hospital room [00:48:56,755]: Second we know three shots to the chest he’d be in the ICU [00:49:00,915]: The only way you’d know he’s alive is that there’d be a beeping on the screen and he’d have hoses coming out of every orifice and he would look dead [00:49:11,495]: And so they take the news crew and they interview his friend [00:49:13,755]: He’s got a nasal cannula a nasal cannula [00:49:17,775]: So I’m sitting there thinking oh so you’re you’re talking with three holes in your chest [00:49:21,455]: What are you sticking your fingers so the air doesn’t come flying out of your chest holes [00:49:25,295]: Right [00:49:26,575]: And then I notice the screen’s not even plugged in [00:49:31,715]: Now what is Mike Cronk now [00:49:34,135]: He’s a state senator from Alaska [00:49:36,855]: In Alaska [00:49:37,675]: I think he’s a state level state senator [00:49:39,795]: What [00:49:40,275]: Yeah [00:49:41,255]: Who’s the chief of police [00:49:42,775]: He became governor of Nevada or something [00:49:46,575]: Right [00:49:48,235]: So so again so there’s a guy named John Cullen who did an analysis of the shooting and his conclusion [00:49:59,455]: Yeah [00:49:59,855]: No no no [00:50:00,615]: No no [00:50:01,155]: This felt different [00:50:02,375]: John worked for Oracle [00:50:03,375]: He’s some on the spectrum code head [00:50:05,235]: He also analyzed the Butler shooting the audios of the Butler shooting [00:50:09,895]: He’s an on the spectrum code head [00:50:11,495]: He’s on the spectrum code head [00:50:12,735]: He sort of bears down and grabs on something a little too firmly I think but but but he brings his own data [00:50:18,595]: As on the spectrum cone heads [00:50:19,255]: Yeah [00:50:19,555]: I know [00:50:20,275]: And he there was pretty good evidence that a lot of the shooting was coming from helicopters behind the Mandalay and he tracked the transponders turning on and off behind the Mandalay [00:50:30,455]: The story was that Mohammed bin Salman was on the top floor [00:50:35,415]: The crown crown prince of rural Saudi Arabia [00:50:37,555]: Yes [00:50:38,275]: Yes [00:50:38,835]: A guy who lots of people would like to kill [00:50:41,335]: And his theory is is that the Saudis tried to flush him out of there and on the way out they would cap him [00:50:49,975]: Now they blew it [00:50:51,275]: If that’s the story they blew it [00:50:52,755]: I think the helicopter idea is not bad but I did a couple of podcasts with John and I said John but what about all the shooting on the ground [00:50:59,275]: And John was kind of dismissive [00:51:00,555]: I go you can’t dismiss it [00:51:02,055]: You can’t let that stuff go [00:51:03,875]: Your models got to include that [00:51:05,755]: But it occurred a year later Mohammed remember when Khashoggi got killed [00:51:17,615]: What was his name [00:51:18,875]: Jamal Khashoggi [00:51:20,335]: Now Anand Khashoggi is one of the most famous CIA guys on the planet [00:51:24,855]: Jamal Khashoggi is the one who got diced up and fed to the camels [00:51:27,955]: Now he’s a New York Times reporter [00:51:29,435]: I think he was also CIA [00:51:30,935]: Washington Post columnist [00:51:32,615]: Yeah [00:51:32,855]: And he was killed in In the embassy [00:51:35,555]: In Istanbul I believe [00:51:40,815]: Supposedly on the anniversary of the Vegas shootings supposedly Mohammed bin Salman had a party locked the doors and showed a video of him getting sliced up and said to the royal sitting in the room don’t even think about it [00:51:57,475]: Now when I wrote about Khashoggi everyone was having a cow over Khashoggi right when he got killed [00:52:02,535]: I’m going we’re killing tens of thousands of Yemenis [00:52:06,875]: We killed 5 million people in the Middle East directly and indirectly due to our post 9 11 responses right [00:52:14,704]: And I called him ODK one dead Khashoggi [00:52:17,844]: I said it is insane to worry about one dead guy in a region of the world where people die for no reason all the time [00:52:25,644]: Who was at war with his own government the Saudi government [00:52:28,444]: I mean I’m obviously not for vivisecting people but I also think like yeah there’s a scale of evil and starving kids is worse than what happened to Khashoggi [00:52:41,484]: I agree with you [00:52:42,844]: Right so you were the only mainstream guy who I watched steadily on the story staying with the Vegas shootings noting that there’s something wrong [00:52:53,164]: We got very hassled by law enforcement in Las Vegas which was you know I worked at Fox News obviously at the time and big supporters of law enforcement [00:53:02,924]: I’ve always been a big supporter of law enforcement [00:53:04,504]: We’ve never gotten hassled anywhere [00:53:06,064]: Just the opposite [00:53:07,324]: Oh you work for Fox News [00:53:08,184]: Oh my gosh of course slow down [00:53:10,044]: The official law enforcement is what got you [00:53:11,984]: Man I mean they blocked our camera position [00:53:14,964]: Oh yeah they were totally opposed to us doing that [00:53:18,264]: I’ve never had that experience [00:53:19,584]: So let’s stay on the shootings just briefly [00:53:22,144]: Uvalde there’s problems all over that shooting [00:53:24,424]: Remember that shooting in Texas where the guy got into the school [00:53:27,444]: I knew the mayor yes [00:53:29,084]: There’s problems all over the place because first of all there’s something like 800 law enforcement guys within reach of the damn thing [00:53:35,204]: And it was a ton of like 5 000 people [00:53:39,144]: And then they didn’t go in for 78 minutes or something [00:53:43,424]: I go excuse me you show me 10 cops probably eight of them have kids [00:53:50,804]: Right now I’m reading a book called The Moral Animal [00:53:53,184]: It’s about human behavior [00:53:55,384]: And out of those eight eight would have gone into I don’t care what you say I’m going in [00:54:01,144]: You give me a soccer mom she’s going in right [00:54:04,264]: And then there was the mom who did go in and her story was incoherent [00:54:11,444]: Her story she came out and she said this and then she said this and it was not consistent [00:54:16,784]: And I’m going that’s just a narrative thrown on top of it [00:54:19,524]: So what are we looking at here [00:54:21,304]: So What does that mean [00:54:24,104]: Kayfabe is something Eric Weinstein wrote about [00:54:26,504]: He was asked to write an essay with a bunch of other scholarly types [00:54:29,564]: And he said that politics it was Kayfabe [00:54:32,204]: It was professional wrestling [00:54:35,364]: And there’s all these layers there’s all these tricks [00:54:39,064]: It’s way more sophisticated than people think [00:54:41,724]: The way you engage the audience and you have some reality and some non reality and things change [00:54:48,584]: And he talked about politics being Kayfabe [00:54:51,384]: I don’t think anything you see can be interpreted literally and at face value [00:54:59,124]: Now Purpose however [00:55:03,704]: Well as I was telling you a friend’s binding all my annual reviews and I will probably make 1 000 off this [00:55:12,404]: I mean this is not getting rich [00:55:14,884]: I’m paid probably 0 001 cent per hour pay for this task [00:55:21,104]: I had to go back [00:55:22,344]: I’ve been proofing the drafts from previous years [00:55:26,524]: And what I noticed about 2013 14 15 is something’s changed [00:55:32,364]: And what’s changed is you could get facts [00:55:40,164]: And you felt like you were getting facts [00:55:41,644]: And the stories would break and they would stay that way [00:55:45,004]: And they wouldn’t be shifting around [00:55:46,944]: And you can say okay here’s what happened in here here and this piece fits in here [00:55:51,864]: And now you can’t [00:55:54,184]: Now it’s like and we talked about using trite metaphors [00:55:57,924]: Here’s one but I really like it [00:55:59,384]: It’s like when your GPS starts randomly rerouting you and our GPS just keeps ranting rerouting [00:56:08,284]: I’m not taking that right turn now you know [00:56:10,704]: So you just boot the GPS and you break out your gazetteer and you figure out where you’re going right [00:56:15,344]: And so our GPS is rerouting us constantly [00:56:19,544]: And one of your guests Mike Benz who I occasionally chat with briefly who’s very impressive [00:56:27,844]: And as I’ve said I don’t know everything about him [00:56:32,404]: And I don’t mean just in a casual way [00:56:35,164]: I think there’s a complex story there [00:56:38,004]: But right now he’s saying the right stuff [00:56:40,904]: He gave a talk one day where he talked about how around 2013 the so called deep state which is a term I’ve tried to figure out where it came from [00:56:51,604]: And I think the guy who gets the most credit is kind of Peter Dale Scott who wrote about drug trafficking Berkeley professor and he called it deep politics [00:57:00,624]: But I think it predates that but that’s where I get it from [00:57:03,784]: He said the deep state realized they were losing control of the narrative [00:57:09,824]: They had underestimated the internet and social media [00:57:12,964]: Exactly [00:57:13,324]: And as a consequence they had to get ahold of it completely [00:57:17,024]: And so then this is where we’re at [00:57:18,664]: Now we thought Trump was gonna save us [00:57:20,364]: We thought Elon was gonna save us [00:57:22,924]: My Twitter feed is a dumpster fire [00:57:26,904]: So instead of taking away data they provide excess noise [00:57:32,224]: So now instead of trying to suppress the signal you just increase the noise [00:57:38,044]: I think that’s very deep [00:57:40,844]: And I think it points to what’s happening [00:57:43,704]: I would think that’s clearly true [00:57:44,964]: So what is the fact [00:57:45,824]: That was the title of last year’s write up [00:57:47,344]: What is the fact [00:57:51,164]: Yeah it’s impossible [00:57:53,584]: You can’t actually control the and you can’t restrict the flow of information across the internet [00:57:58,844]: So you throw debris out there [00:58:00,624]: Yeah [00:58:01,364]: It’s like the pilots who throw the debris out the back of the plane so that the guided missiles don’t know what to hit [00:58:09,824]: Of course exactly right [00:58:10,864]: Right [00:58:11,384]: And they also throw out debris so that then they can prove that it’s not true so you feel like an idiot [00:58:17,124]: QAnon was clearly that [00:58:18,744]: QAnon yeah QAnon [00:58:21,424]: What was QAnon [00:58:22,224]: I don’t know [00:58:23,084]: I don’t either [00:58:23,804]: I avoid you know I’d be listening to something and it would have useful information and all of a sudden then it would show the whole and here’s Trump and his generals are going to save the world [00:58:31,744]: No I agree [00:58:33,104]: But the interesting I never knew anything about QAnon [00:58:34,784]: I never paid any attention at all [00:58:36,044]: I have a good friend who I really admire is much smarter than I am who because he is smarter than I am took like a year to look into QAnon [00:58:45,284]: What’d he get [00:58:47,244]: I don’t fully understand it but here’s what I understand is that you know some of the predictions of QAnon came true [00:58:54,864]: I mean it’s a sophisticated thing [00:58:57,104]: It’s not just [00:58:58,184]: Oh I think it’s a bunch of ex spooks [00:59:00,004]: For sure [00:59:00,804]: It’s not a you know a bunch of college kids on [00:59:03,744]: No 4chan or whatever whatever they claim it was [00:59:06,764]: These are guys who are probably pissed that the system went bad [00:59:10,264]: The point of it and it’s unclear you know who’s behind it [00:59:13,924]: I have some theories but people I know actually but I don’t know if they’re true [00:59:19,524]: But what is obvious to me is that it was it’s a control mechanism [00:59:25,604]: Trying to siphon off some of that energy and move it in a less [00:59:28,764]: Siphoning off the energy [00:59:29,704]: That’s exactly right [00:59:30,004]: Less dangerous direction [00:59:31,704]: Right [00:59:32,364]: Focus on Wuhan right [00:59:35,244]: Focus on the lab in Wuhan [00:59:38,164]: That’s siphoning off the energy [00:59:38,524]: It’s all American politics [00:59:39,964]: Like have a race war [00:59:41,404]: Leave us alone as we loot your country [00:59:42,604]: That’s right [00:59:43,464]: There’s a meme out there [00:59:44,724]: There’s a joke where the king and his right hand man his chief of staff are looking at the angry townspeople [00:59:51,844]: Some have pitchforks and some have torches [00:59:54,064]: And the king says don’t you don’t have to worry [00:59:56,024]: You just convince the guys with the pitchforks or the enemies or the guys with the torches [01:00:00,624]: Right [01:00:03,784]: So you said that a couple of times [01:00:05,084]: Focus on Wuhan [01:00:07,744]: I’ve fallen for that squirrel [01:00:10,524]: Squirrel [01:00:11,384]: Wuhan thing [01:00:12,604]: I know squirrel [01:00:13,504]: Why [01:00:13,944]: A blind nut finds the squirrel [01:00:17,104]: That’s funny [01:00:18,904]: That’s a real I’m stealing that [01:00:20,964]: Making a note [01:00:21,864]: That’s an original [01:00:22,944]: I like that [01:00:23,684]: I never know if I heard it and forgot where I got it but that’s an original [01:00:26,904]: A blind nut finds the squirrel [01:00:29,324]: But what is that distracting [01:00:30,664]: I think it is great [01:00:31,564]: You put me in an asylum overnight [01:00:35,184]: An asylum overnight [01:00:36,384]: Yeah yeah [01:00:37,364]: My hotel’s a former asylum [01:00:39,344]: Is it really [01:00:40,184]: Yeah [01:00:40,544]: You didn’t ask [01:00:41,384]: No [01:00:41,964]: Oh yeah it’s a former asylum [01:00:43,224]: I said you finally got it right [01:00:45,804]: Well I think there’s wisdom here [01:00:48,244]: There is wisdom here [01:00:49,004]: What are they distracting us from by having us focus on Wuhan [01:00:52,564]: Well huge amounts of grift [01:00:54,804]: You had you interviewed Katherine Austen Fitz [01:00:58,744]: Yes [01:00:59,404]: I’ve been blessed [01:01:01,644]: Smart woman [01:01:02,824]: So I come out of nowhere [01:01:03,784]: I have no credentials beyond those that I can create right [01:01:08,704]: And I think one of the ways you create it is by being truthful [01:01:12,224]: Yes [01:01:12,584]: And I know truth is everything to you [01:01:14,624]: I try to make it that [01:01:18,064]: And actually in this book The Moral Animal they say the reason we self delude is so that you can be truthful and deceive your opponent [01:01:26,244]: That’s what self delusion is [01:01:28,124]: Yes [01:01:31,284]: I’ve practiced a lot of that [01:01:32,464]: I’ve been adopted by some people who didn’t have to adopt me [01:01:37,384]: And so for example I’m tight with Steve Hanke who’s a famous economist [01:01:43,624]: And Katherine has been very supportive [01:01:47,704]: And there’s several dozen who somehow have decided that I’m worth their time and help me [01:01:58,644]: And so they’re useful to chat with [01:02:01,004]: They’re useful to but Katherine’s story and a lot of people think Katherine’s nuts right [01:02:07,144]: But she talks about the huge amount of resources that have been siphoned off and the tens of trillions of dollars of resources that have been siphoned off [01:02:16,904]: I know Katherine Austin Fitz you can disagree with her [01:02:19,004]: She’s not nuts [01:02:19,964]: That’s not true [01:02:20,984]: She’s not what [01:02:22,164]: Oh no I don’t think she is nuts right [01:02:24,384]: No she’s a grounded person [01:02:26,244]: She could have things wrong but that’s totally different [01:02:30,184]: And I had a friend another friend who I think is phenomenal tell me that she’s nuts and don’t get near her [01:02:36,584]: And I said no I don’t think so [01:02:42,504]: But we all can get sucked down into the rabbit hole to the point you can’t get out too [01:02:47,204]: There are days where I wish why don’t you just go play golf [01:02:51,324]: Or right now my house is hanging off a 100 foot cliff looking west over Cougar Lake [01:02:57,544]: I can literally throw rotten food off my deck and drop it down into the drink from I’ll show you afterwards I’ll show you photos [01:03:05,004]: The view is such that if there are places in the country where the view would cost 20 million not in Ithaca of course [01:03:14,724]: And if people come and visit they should [01:03:18,964]: It’s beautiful [01:03:19,804]: I can’t remember why I said that [01:03:22,024]: That’s probably it [01:03:22,804]: You’re saying that people dismiss the few who are just committed to pursuing truth no matter what as crazy [01:03:32,444]: And you gave Katharine Austen Fitz as an example but you said you can actually go crazy by looking too carefully into what actually happened [01:03:40,724]: So the lake I’m on turns out broke the small New York State’s smallmouth bass record about three years ago broke the New York State largemouth bass record last year [01:03:48,464]: And I used to fish all the time when I was a kid and I haven’t fished it [01:03:53,004]: What’s wrong with this picture [01:03:54,544]: Well if you’ve got smallmouth bass there I think you need to fish it on a fly rod [01:03:58,424]: I know [01:03:58,744]: It’ll totally change your life [01:04:00,044]: It’s not a fly rod it’s a deep lake [01:04:02,624]: But you can catch them on the surface with a popper [01:04:04,544]: And if you do if you catch a sizable smallmouth on a popper and a fly rod you know [01:04:08,484]: I’m a 18 foot deep shoal guy [01:04:11,684]: Sinking line [01:04:12,704]: But so you know my wife thought that I had fish removed from my thumbs because she never saw a picture of me that didn’t have a fish hanging off my hand [01:04:20,724]: But I haven’t fished it [01:04:23,184]: Because you’re absorbed in trying to figure out what’s happening [01:04:25,524]: I’m absorbed in raising kids [01:04:26,284]: I’m absorbed in other things [01:04:27,844]: My wife has issues I got to help her with [01:04:32,484]: And I have this fear of buying a boat [01:04:36,824]: But you as someone who has taken you know ample intellectual energy and intelligence and focused it on trying to figure out what are we watching which I think is like a fair way to describe what you’re doing [01:04:49,864]: Like what is this [01:04:51,144]: What’s the truth of it [01:04:53,404]: Has that been worth doing [01:04:57,164]: That’s the question [01:04:59,704]: That is the question [01:05:01,564]: And there was a time where I thought if I could get to the truth then that would help in some way but now it’s not as clear [01:05:10,224]: Tell me [01:05:10,864]: Well you know now first of all what is the truth right [01:05:14,184]: The truth is now becoming very ambiguous [01:05:17,124]: Last year I wrote about the history of World War II [01:05:19,744]: I did a mini Daryl Cooper [01:05:21,424]: Yes [01:05:22,584]: And it started when I read a book by Diana West who would be good if you interviewed her [01:05:28,764]: And it’s this revisionist history of World War II [01:05:32,084]: And you go well why would you want to read that [01:05:34,284]: Well it turns out I think the story we got about World War II is all wrong [01:05:37,584]: I think that’s right [01:05:39,004]: And then I read about FDR and FDR’s right hand man was a Soviet spy [01:05:43,964]: Certainly was [01:05:44,664]: Right [01:05:45,484]: And therefore Confirmed confirmed [01:05:47,244]: We should have been one can make the argument we should have sided with Hitler and fought Stalin [01:05:52,584]: Patton said that so [01:05:53,804]: And maybe there wouldn’t have been a Holocaust right [01:05:56,204]: You know there’s but Stalin was awful by any metric and we weren’t his ally [01:06:03,704]: The story is that there were a few missing American soldiers at the end of World War II in Russian territory [01:06:10,624]: 15 to 20 000 were missing and we left them there [01:06:14,724]: And then you read about Pearl Harbor [01:06:16,404]: We all sort of know the Pearl Harbor story is not what we’re told but I dug into that and you find out the Pearl we knew to the morning that Pearl Harbor was gonna get attacked [01:06:24,904]: Stalin was gonna be attacked [01:06:25,924]: He wanted us to take the Japanese off his flank [01:06:30,224]: And FDR’s right hand man was okay with that because he was a Soviet spy right [01:06:33,444]: Then I read about FDR and the Great Depression [01:06:35,584]: Find out that every single penny he spent trying to help the forgot Amity Shlaes the forgotten man was spent to buy votes every last penny [01:06:44,284]: He was a sociopath [01:06:46,444]: And every the only thing he could do was lie [01:06:48,724]: He was a compulsive liar [01:06:50,264]: His inner circle had to constantly cover for his lying [01:06:55,964]: And the only thing he’s used for now is every time you want to grow government you cite FDR [01:07:02,384]: And so I read half a dozen books that sort of went at these different angles and wrote about it [01:07:08,604]: So I start out knowing nothing and then I write about it and I try to write to learn which is the most terrifying part of AI by the way [01:07:16,384]: If you take out the writing you take out the thought [01:07:21,744]: Completely agree [01:07:22,864]: The other thing that scares me about it boy they’re a squirrel [01:07:29,744]: AI’s going to make the system very unforgivingly brittle [01:07:32,444]: I’m not worried as much about the authoritarian slant that Elon occasionally talks about which might be just to fake us out who knows [01:07:40,004]: I am worried that we’re going to reach a point where you know when everything everything computer does is binary [01:07:44,964]: So you go to the grocery store you slip your credit card in it says you’re good to go or didn’t work [01:07:50,764]: Swipe it again [01:07:51,464]: Didn’t work [01:07:52,184]: Sorry you’re out of here right [01:07:53,264]: They debank people [01:07:54,544]: This is a big problem [01:07:55,944]: What happens when everything is so AI’d up that there’s no person anywhere within earshot who can help you at all [01:08:04,764]: No one who can say okay let me get this for you [01:08:08,024]: Right [01:08:08,304]: There’s been a misunderstanding or there’s some sort of human nuance required [01:08:12,324]: Happened on the other day on a credit card where I was talking to the lady and it kept sending me in these loops and she finally straightened out [01:08:17,084]: But what happens when the code is being written by computer so there’s no human who understands the code [01:08:22,944]: So the system will be very brittle be very unforgiving [01:08:26,164]: Forget about whether it’s used nefariously [01:08:28,544]: Forget about whether someone uses it as an authoritarian tool which is very real possibility [01:08:33,104]: And I worry about that a lot [01:08:35,724]: Just the fact that no one will know who’s driving the cab ever on anything [01:08:41,364]: And also now you’re taking out the intellectual part [01:08:44,104]: So when I write when you write when I write a scientific paper the project’s not done until I’ve written it because that’s where you lay it out [01:08:52,444]: And if you can’t put it on paper coherently with no internal contradictions you’re not done [01:08:59,624]: You’re not done understanding it [01:09:01,464]: You’re not done understanding it [01:09:02,784]: So the writing is understanding [01:09:04,824]: So I think people who don’t write for a living or aren’t forced to write regularly don’t understand [01:09:10,264]: This concept is a hard one [01:09:12,504]: But it’s through writing or I would also say speaking you know public speaking that putting concepts into words makes the concepts intelligible to the person who’s articulating them [01:09:25,104]: Like you don’t really understand something until you’ve been forced to write about it [01:09:28,484]: It’s like a comedy shop [01:09:30,204]: You go you know the great comedians will go down to the cheapo comedy shops [01:09:35,751]: to practice to figure out what works and what doesn’t work right [01:09:40,451]: And then they go on Johnny Carson [01:09:42,591]: Exactly [01:09:43,131]: And so so you write your way to wisdom [01:09:45,291]: So when there’s no writing there’s no thinking [01:09:47,591]: Right [01:09:47,931]: So I read about Maui the fires [01:09:50,931]: I wrote about that [01:09:52,711]: Very clearly a land grab [01:09:55,591]: You may remember how many kids died [01:09:58,131]: No [01:09:58,851]: Do you remember [01:09:59,631]: USA article said 750 kids are missing [01:10:02,671]: Yep [01:10:03,091]: Right [01:10:03,471]: When a kid’s missing after something like that they’re dead but they’re not missing [01:10:08,771]: They’re dead [01:10:09,371]: Maybe a couple found their way [01:10:11,151]: Someone drove them out of town but they’re dead [01:10:12,871]: Try to find anywhere a statement about dead kids now [01:10:15,971]: You can’t find it [01:10:16,691]: You go to Wikipedia you search the word child you search the word you read it [01:10:21,991]: There’s no mention of dead children [01:10:25,211]: There were 750 kids missing according to USA Today [01:10:29,391]: Then all of a sudden the governor saying well you know we’re worried about land speculators [01:10:33,091]: So we’re going to buy the land up so that the speculators can’t get it [01:10:36,391]: And I go so you can sell it to your friends [01:10:39,491]: Right [01:10:40,031]: Is it possible maybe they mowed down Lahaina because they want to put up resorts and things [01:10:47,351]: Right [01:10:48,091]: But what also was out there was this idea of directed energy weapons starting the fires [01:10:53,391]: Now I think that was a dead end [01:10:55,691]: I don’t think directed energy weapons are used even though there’s a it’s called DEWs even though there’s a DEW facility on Maui you don’t need that [01:11:05,151]: And there were videos [01:11:06,671]: I go I think those are fake [01:11:08,031]: So I found nothing but I used it as an excuse to read up on DEWs [01:11:14,311]: And I was reading RAND reports from 40 years ago [01:11:18,031]: What is a directed energy weapon [01:11:19,771]: It’s basically Star Wars [01:11:21,811]: And so it’s Reagan’s Star Wars [01:11:24,111]: And everyone said oh that’s just science fiction [01:11:26,031]: I go well Gorbachev seemed to want to get rid of them every chance he got [01:11:30,131]: So Gorbachev took them very seriously [01:11:33,011]: So it turns out what you do is you put something in space and it shoots some sort of energy guided energy down to the surface of the earth [01:11:40,891]: And it can the different frequencies have different efficacies [01:11:44,751]: And so some are really good at hitting a target [01:11:48,451]: Some broaden out like microwaves are different than some sort of ultraviolet laser [01:11:53,271]: I’m not very good at this stuff [01:11:55,011]: But and then I started reading about how what they do is they use a pulse of one laser to punch a hole through the atmosphere and then the second pulse would go through that hole [01:12:03,551]: And it’s really clever stuff [01:12:05,511]: This is 40 year old RAND reports [01:12:08,691]: What do they have behind the paywall 40 years later [01:12:13,731]: Now the best I think evidence of a DEW being used and I was reading about fires in different places where trees were burning that shouldn’t have burned and cars there were there’s I wrote about it [01:12:27,191]: If someone wants to go read it that was a couple of years ago [01:12:31,391]: The best evidence of a DEW [01:12:33,431]: So if you’ve got these you got to test them right [01:12:36,451]: It’s like why you need why you need you know bioweapons labs in Ukraine you got to test them [01:12:43,311]: You can’t use lab rats [01:12:46,311]: You look at the Quebec fires a satellite imagery of the Quebec fires very mysterious [01:12:55,531]: About 26 ish fires started simultaneously [01:12:59,851]: How do you know [01:13:00,311]: Well if a fire starts and then another one starts it’ll be downwind [01:13:04,071]: So you’ll see it’ll look like the Hawaiian islands right [01:13:07,671]: Boom all at once 26 fires [01:13:12,881]: In a crudely buckshot pattern there was 350 miles in diameter [01:13:22,591]: Boy that’s a determined arsonist or at least 26 of them [01:13:27,491]: Yeah with In the middle of nowhere [01:13:29,891]: Yeah with helicopters I mean there are no roads so But but and say no a cell phone can’t do it you know nothing right [01:13:36,631]: They’re in the middle of nowhere and all of a sudden they all start simultaneously and I’m going okay that probably was them testing out their weapons [01:13:44,391]: And we have a lot of wars to test weapons right [01:13:48,151]: So so your your basic overarching theory is around 2014 15 it became clear to the people running the world that you can’t keep information under wraps anymore because the internet is impossible to control [01:14:05,951]: And so you had to flood flood people’s brains with extraneous and misleading information [01:14:12,931]: And shut down people they shut they booted the President of the United States off Twitter [01:14:18,671]: Yeah [01:14:19,351]: How is that possible [01:14:21,691]: Because he was a racist [01:14:23,991]: That’s what they Shut up racist [01:14:24,691]: That’s what they told me [01:14:25,791]: Shut up racist [01:14:26,811]: He was a racist [01:14:28,791]: Right and you know so many something like 70 000 got booted off Twitter [01:14:32,691]: My sister in law who’s she had a Twitter feed she can’t get it back [01:14:37,791]: You know somehow I don’t know how I survived that [01:14:39,851]: What was her crime [01:14:41,031]: She must have said something favorable about Trump or something I don’t know [01:14:45,751]: So but the control of information the shaping of people’s understandings of the world around them that’s that’s the whole game right there [01:14:55,551]: So I used to say the internet was democracy’s greatest hope and worst enemy [01:15:01,091]: Hmm [01:15:02,051]: And that it was a battle [01:15:04,051]: I don’t think we’re going to win it [01:15:06,471]: And the reason I don’t is because it’s too powerful [01:15:09,911]: And so whoever has control of it will then have that power [01:15:16,891]: So it’s only a battle for who gets control of it [01:15:20,711]: Control of information [01:15:22,091]: Control of the digital world yeah [01:15:24,811]: So if you see voices out there dissenting from I hear voices Don [01:15:30,531]: If you if you see if you see or hear voices that are dissenting from the official storyline they’re going to have to be silenced or eliminated I mean [01:15:39,511]: Well look at what happened [01:15:41,711]: Look at the ambushes that occurred when Thomas Massey who I think is great Rand Paul who I think has matured immensely [01:15:50,791]: And who is the third Republican who who stepped away from the narrative [01:15:56,511]: And all of a sudden the attacks were relentless [01:16:00,011]: Now that could just be Trump being Trump [01:16:03,371]: It wasn’t just Trump attacking them though [01:16:05,011]: I know [01:16:06,471]: Marjorie Taylor [01:16:07,371]: Marjorie Taylor Greene who by the way is nowhere near as stupid [01:16:10,611]: I mean she’s not even stupid [01:16:12,211]: Oh I know [01:16:12,631]: She ran a construction company [01:16:13,851]: Oh I know [01:16:15,311]: And her she just doesn’t have whatever that normal the fear that controls people in D C where like I can’t But how do you turn on Thomas Massey [01:16:26,131]: Marjorie Taylor Greene at least played a role in K fabe that you could imagine drawing fire [01:16:32,471]: Massey’s this guy you know who who built his own house and fixes his own car [01:16:38,091]: And he’s he’s an engineer [01:16:40,911]: He’s he’s he’s he he’s the he’s an archetype of who we ought to be [01:16:46,451]: As a country [01:16:47,291]: As a country [01:16:48,211]: I so vehemently agree with that [01:16:50,511]: And they turned on him [01:16:53,731]: Yeah well I haven’t [01:16:55,631]: We know why they turned on him [01:16:57,111]: I texted with him this morning [01:16:59,331]: No I I mean you know you could say I disagree with with Thomas Massey [01:17:02,891]: But if you think Thomas Massey is the problem [01:17:05,531]: You are the problem [01:17:06,791]: I couldn’t agree more [01:17:08,571]: I couldn’t agree more [01:17:09,211]: Just because first of all he’s a decent man which always matters to me [01:17:12,591]: And I think it should matter to all of us [01:17:14,491]: You could you know give Thomas Massey a routing number and he’s not going to take a dollar [01:17:18,711]: He’s just not he’s not going to He’s the only one without a handler [01:17:21,891]: That’s true [01:17:23,251]: And and I think we should admire that [01:17:24,931]: Even if you think that all members of Congress should be required to have handlers [01:17:27,991]: It’s okay to live in a world where one doesn’t [01:17:30,631]: That’s what I find so Well it’s not okay to live in a world where everyone else does [01:17:35,311]: No I agree with you [01:17:36,391]: But I just find what’s so interesting [01:17:38,251]: And there’s a religious quality to all of these conversations that I find so striking [01:17:43,311]: It’s like it’s okay if you have you know all this power all this money [01:17:48,791]: If you’re running the U S government or whoever you are with a lot of power [01:17:53,251]: You know you can afford to have some percentage of the population not play along [01:17:57,511]: You don’t need doesn’t need to be an Albanian election in 1982 [01:18:01,711]: Like you can have some dissent [01:18:04,171]: Unless you’re an authoritarian state [01:18:06,711]: I guess that’s right [01:18:08,071]: I mean but even in an effective authoritarian state in Saudi Arabia in the Emirates [01:18:13,051]: These are you know basically theocracies [01:18:15,891]: They don’t they don’t agree with that [01:18:17,071]: But they you know these are Islamic states under Sharia law [01:18:20,571]: You can kind of dissent [01:18:21,711]: It’s okay [01:18:22,511]: You just can’t do anything really threatening of course [01:18:25,631]: But more dissent is allowed in Abu Dhabi than in D C I just find that just absolutely incredible [01:18:31,531]: Like what is this [01:18:32,551]: Why why can’t they allow Thomas Massey to just like have his own Massey views [01:18:36,551]: He’s a vote [01:18:37,811]: He’s a vote [01:18:38,671]: Okay [01:18:39,031]: But you got hundreds of others [01:18:41,071]: Like I just think it’s weird [01:18:43,211]: There’s this desire to make sure that nobody sings off the song sheet [01:18:47,971]: Like and that person must be killed [01:18:49,671]: And I wow [01:18:50,591]: I just I don’t enforce that among my own children [01:18:58,811]: So do you know what I’m talking about [01:19:00,511]: No I absolutely know [01:19:02,651]: We used to allow opposing views [01:19:05,591]: Yeah [01:19:05,791]: I mean look if someone is really a threat to the system [01:19:09,731]: Well I think that should be allowed personally because the people in the government [01:19:12,991]: It depends on in what way but yes [01:19:14,351]: In what way [01:19:15,511]: I have a very wide strike zone for that [01:19:17,431]: But I get it [01:19:18,371]: If the system is like I’m sorry you’re an actual threat [01:19:20,611]: We have to kill you [01:19:21,431]: Okay [01:19:21,671]: Systems exist to preserve themselves [01:19:23,231]: I understand that [01:19:24,171]: What I really can’t even comprehend is someone out there in a place I’ve never been and never will go among 350 million people is making a noise that I disagree with [01:19:33,331]: I must crush him [01:19:34,391]: What is that [01:19:35,531]: That’s just weird to me [01:19:37,671]: Why are you going to the effort to shut down all dissent [01:19:42,891]: I don’t know [01:19:44,231]: But it’s that’s that’s what’s happening [01:19:46,531]: Oh I know [01:19:48,831]: Well not to swing the topic yet again let me let me get back to the universities [01:19:56,131]: People don’t understand universities [01:19:59,131]: There are people who do obviously but the average person doesn’t [01:20:03,491]: So so people are going to say I’m talking my book [01:20:06,751]: Let me let me take this opportunity with your gargantuan following to explain how universities work so that [01:20:14,271]: Well let me just say before you begin that I’m amazed by the broadness of your thinking right or wrong [01:20:19,451]: You’re certainly thinking thoughts that most people don’t allow themselves to think [01:20:25,531]: And you are a tenured professor at an Ivy League college and you still have your job apparently [01:20:30,391]: So that does say something [01:20:31,871]: It would be hard to fire me [01:20:33,751]: Apparently [01:20:34,371]: I mean part of the problem is one of the reasons I got canceled is because I twice fought unionizations [01:20:40,471]: Yeah [01:20:41,791]: And the first time was at the request of the dean of faculty [01:20:45,031]: Second time was at the request of the provost of late night phone call [01:20:48,331]: You got to fight this [01:20:49,331]: You got to put together a team [01:20:50,391]: And that’s the now president [01:20:52,011]: And so if they fired me that that that group was sort of behind my cancellation [01:20:56,471]: So firing me would have been hard because you know you know witness number one would be did you ask column to to fight the unions [01:21:03,551]: And did that lead to you know them canceling him and stuff like that [01:21:07,611]: Um I really think Cornell is great [01:21:11,851]: I think most universities are fine [01:21:14,331]: We needed a fastball past our chin [01:21:17,651]: Great example Claudine Gay [01:21:19,431]: Shouldn’t be president of Harvard [01:21:21,071]: Shouldn’t be on the faculty [01:21:22,091]: Shouldn’t have a PhD in my opinion [01:21:24,391]: That is the sign of the rot that has gotten into the universities [01:21:28,171]: But then it’s still an exceptional rot [01:21:31,071]: So I don’t see people at Cornell that look like Claudine Gay to me [01:21:35,151]: And if you actually look in the whole DEI thing you say well universities are super duper DEI [01:21:41,231]: And I go you guys are forgetting that a year ago or two years ago if you weren’t DEI you got destroyed [01:21:49,511]: The whole system was geared up to make sure you paid dearly if you weren’t DEI [01:21:53,631]: So you had to have your deans of diversity and you you you the the the world was demanding it [01:21:59,471]: And don’t forget this was a world where where where biological men were were competing in women’s sports [01:22:05,051]: They still kind of are but at least it’s now starting to dissipate [01:22:09,491]: And that was considered totally normal and was considered rational [01:22:14,011]: And if you fought it you get fired and things like that [01:22:16,351]: So so the universities were simply responding [01:22:19,671]: Now they’d gotten way left wing [01:22:22,531]: My colleagues were all hired all hired based on their skills guaranteed [01:22:28,271]: I would I’d remember a case if it was a DEI hire [01:22:31,991]: I remember a case because I would have fought it [01:22:34,031]: I would have screamed [01:22:34,711]: I don’t shut up on things like that [01:22:36,831]: We try to find the best person in the world to hire [01:22:39,091]: And we go for that person if we can [01:22:41,531]: And we do pretty well [01:22:44,711]: And so if you were on a campus you wouldn’t see what we’re hearing about [01:22:50,311]: I don’t think you’d walk around the camp [01:22:51,951]: You go everything just looks pretty normal [01:22:53,411]: So you’re the hardest of the hard sciences though [01:22:56,031]: Do you think that’s the problem [01:22:57,231]: If I walked over the art squad I’d see some Looney Tunes right [01:23:00,011]: Um and we’re we’re now destroyed [01:23:02,931]: The cost of an education is too high to waste it [01:23:08,291]: And so if you’re going to spend 300 000 you can’t you can’t go into a career that you make 40 000 or that you make 25 000 because you’re a barista right [01:23:20,791]: It’s just no longer even viable [01:23:23,031]: So you have to [01:23:24,531]: So colleges if I were president of Cornell I’d put together an elite committee of people [01:23:28,451]: I absolutely trust it and say you guys are in charge of trying to figure out where we should be in 20 years and how to get there [01:23:36,911]: Because we can’t be here in 20 years [01:23:40,091]: It’s not going to work [01:23:42,491]: Arts and sciences and this whole idea of this broadly based education was formed prior to the cost and was formed when wealthy people went to college [01:23:53,791]: So you could be frivolous if you wanted [01:23:56,451]: And and and getting a sheepskin could get you onto Wall Street and be the lead analyst for all the dot coms Henry Blodgett style right [01:24:04,171]: Those days are gone [01:24:06,151]: And so colleges are going to have to tighten up [01:24:09,971]: But my colleagues are I would say on average out of 20 out of 30 colleagues I’ll say maybe I think 27 of them are left of center [01:24:20,151]: And I can’t explain why [01:24:22,191]: Now when I talk to them they’re totally rational people totally reasonable people [01:24:27,551]: The way it works as a chemist is you are an entrepreneur [01:24:30,811]: You get a job they give you startup money to get started [01:24:33,431]: You have to then go raise money [01:24:35,091]: Funding rates are ballpark maybe 15 of the people get funded [01:24:39,891]: By the way the ones who never get funded they’ve dropped off [01:24:42,551]: So that 15 are people still trying [01:24:45,831]: And I’m going to brag I put 21 in a row successfully [01:24:50,551]: Do the math on that [01:24:51,811]: That’s that’s improbable [01:24:53,791]: But my colleagues are constantly battling [01:24:56,751]: They’re putting together this program [01:24:58,051]: They’re running research groups of anywhere from 5 to 30 [01:25:02,531]: No one pays for that [01:25:04,051]: They raise the money from the federal system [01:25:05,751]: You say well the Fed shouldn’t pay the money [01:25:07,631]: Well years and years ago we decided the way to run a research program in the United States was through universities and federal grants [01:25:15,791]: It was a Sputnik thing [01:25:17,311]: There’s other ways to do it but we set up that system [01:25:22,371]: And if you look at all the startup companies around the country and all the pharmaceutical agents they all you can trace their origins back to academic labs [01:25:33,131]: Pfizer discovers far fewer drugs than they buy from some small startup that came out of some biochemistry department or some medical school or something [01:25:43,351]: And so so so the academic research area is is the foundation level starting point [01:25:50,031]: I have a number of friends who are worth a fortune because they patented something [01:25:54,611]: And that’s actually good because it would be neutered and not even usable by the free market if it didn’t have the patent coverage [01:26:01,931]: And so it made sense [01:26:03,311]: So so it puts an incentive system in there right [01:26:07,091]: Cornell gets some the investigator gets some the department gets some and the world gets a new drug [01:26:12,611]: It’s not a crazy system [01:26:14,251]: Now there’s other ways to do it but that’s not how we do it [01:26:17,451]: And we produce the best science [01:26:19,671]: So it worked [01:26:23,051]: Now the problem is that Trump threw a fastball past our chin and we deserved it [01:26:29,531]: We absolutely deserved it [01:26:30,691]: So he’s saying look get rid of the the the guys in sports which Penn did with Leah Thomas you know get rid of the DEI which a lot of schools are trying to and at the same time ducking you know naming them by different things [01:26:44,751]: But but the fastball was needed [01:26:46,671]: The problem is he he he as you said at breakfast it was the social stuff [01:26:55,605]: that Trump was going after [01:26:57,625]: But you don’t go after the social stuff with social stuff [01:27:00,005]: You go after it by going after the money [01:27:02,205]: Right [01:27:02,705]: So Harvard’s locked down for 9 billion of research funds [01:27:06,065]: And my understanding is it’s still locked down [01:27:08,725]: Cornell’s locked down for over a billion [01:27:11,125]: Harvard was getting 9 billion from the feds for research at various times [01:27:15,325]: And it’s on hold [01:27:16,265]: And it’s on hold [01:27:17,365]: And the word cancel versus frozen I was trying to figure it out [01:27:21,565]: Columbia I thought it was a cancel [01:27:22,665]: Columbia got crushed [01:27:25,465]: And then Columbia put out a memo that said canceled [01:27:29,965]: Now I don’t know if that’s because it’s been canceled [01:27:33,205]: But my understanding is the money’s not flowing [01:27:37,405]: Now the problem is as a trustee said to me if this goes into 2026 we’re in a world of trouble [01:27:43,845]: I said if this goes into August we’re in a world of trouble [01:27:47,885]: I’ve got colleagues with 15 person research groups that are all funded by these federal grants [01:27:53,765]: And they do good science [01:27:55,065]: They do good science [01:27:57,105]: There’s probably some crap in the humanities but they suck about 10 000 of grant money out of the system to do that stupid thing [01:28:03,745]: I don’t know [01:28:04,325]: And I don’t even know if it’s stupid [01:28:08,005]: And there’s no mechanism [01:28:09,745]: So now if you’re getting your PhD there’s no one who can give you a postdoc [01:28:14,805]: That’s the next step [01:28:16,085]: That step’s broken [01:28:17,105]: And so the system right now is flatlined [01:28:21,645]: And I really wish they’d gotten rid of USAID [01:28:25,205]: And you told me they did [01:28:26,085]: They just moved it [01:28:26,645]: Well that’s a problem [01:28:27,685]: But I think the academic research system was working [01:28:32,465]: I think part of the problem from a civilian perspective are the endowments [01:28:36,145]: Now let me explain the endowments [01:28:37,945]: So for let me just complete the thought by saying it’s the no tax part that I think drives some of us to wanna sort of storm the campus with guns because that’s everyone’s getting I mean the private equity guys are taking all their income as interest [01:28:53,765]: So they’re paying half the rate [01:28:54,905]: But for a normal person you’re paying over half of everything you make to the government and it’s being spent on nonsense or given to Ukraine [01:29:04,225]: And then there are these giant hedge funds called university endowments that aren’t paying any taxes [01:29:10,605]: And I think that can really drive people bonkers including me [01:29:14,525]: Well I understand [01:29:16,585]: There are some subtleties of endowments [01:29:19,785]: Again it’s not to say that you’re not 100 correct but I at least wanna say to your listeners so they understand what they’re complaining about [01:29:30,605]: First and foremost there supposedly are rules where the universities are not supposed to be competing with the private sector [01:29:38,965]: So and they get around those [01:29:41,825]: But if Cornell builds housing is making money off the housing in town that kind of breaks the rule right [01:29:48,205]: But they build dorms and things like that [01:29:50,925]: So you’re right about that [01:29:53,025]: The endowments are a funny game [01:29:55,705]: First and foremost I looked this up last week approximately 50 of all endowment spin off [01:30:06,225]: So it spins off at revenue and Harvard’s has been collecting since 1656 [01:30:14,225]: 50 of the money spun off goes to financial aid which means making college more affordable [01:30:22,805]: Admittedly not very affordable for a lot of people but making it more affordable [01:30:26,405]: So half of the money being spun off is going right back to education of the students [01:30:32,285]: Another 20 is for academic programs which means paying for things that would have have to be paid for or we’d have to do without [01:30:40,865]: And I would argue we got bloated [01:30:43,405]: So there’s things we should have done without [01:30:45,505]: If you looked at the dining program now compared to what they have now it’s really unbelievable [01:30:50,325]: I’m not against good food [01:30:51,485]: I’m against DEI administrators and administrators in general like college should be focused on the professors [01:30:57,045]: I agree with that [01:30:57,925]: And that’s where we should have gotten the fastball past our chances [01:31:00,205]: Did any of these schools have more tenured professors than they do administrators [01:31:04,125]: I don’t think so [01:31:05,945]: The administrative bloat is a combination of all the problems that drive you nuts [01:31:11,565]: And the fact that the interactions between the university and the feds and the states has gotten more complicated [01:31:20,465]: So for example you need way more bean counters [01:31:25,225]: And grant writers [01:31:26,405]: No grant writers are me [01:31:28,545]: They’re us [01:31:29,665]: The grants are being written by the faculty [01:31:32,825]: And again the DEI Michigan’s DEI payroll was 93 million last time I read about it [01:31:39,285]: That’s a lot of money right [01:31:43,405]: But just when you get a federal grant there’s so many things you have to do [01:31:47,665]: It used to they ran it out of a shoebox [01:31:49,825]: Here’s your check spend it wisely [01:31:51,765]: It’s no longer like that [01:31:54,625]: Now it reached the absurd point where you’re supposed to make statements about how you’re gonna save the whales and donate organs to Guatemalan orphans and things like that [01:32:02,265]: And I think Trump’s gonna successfully get a lot of that crap out of there [01:32:05,865]: He would save Cornell a fortune if he could get rid of all of DEI [01:32:09,945]: Now I do think the original idea of affirmative action makes sense [01:32:14,765]: It basically said go find people who are being missed [01:32:20,365]: Look into the dusty corners where you normally don’t look and see if you find talent right [01:32:25,685]: There’s a famous chemist named Henry Gilman [01:32:28,205]: I thought the SAT was designed to do that [01:32:31,285]: No it turns out the SAT has problems now [01:32:34,885]: And the reason it has problems is because when Kaplan got ahold of it and they for profit coach kids on how to do well and then they made it such that the SAT could be taken three times and you get to use only the one you like all of a sudden the cost of maximizing your score on the SAT became prohibitive [01:33:01,805]: And so it’s a legitimate argument that someone coming out of the hood cannot take the Kaplan course and take the SAT three times [01:33:09,685]: But you shouldn’t get rid of it [01:33:11,505]: You should just be aware of what it’s telling you [01:33:14,125]: Would it be possible to design a corruption free screen for intelligence and initiative [01:33:22,625]: Shut up racist [01:33:25,405]: No but I mean No [01:33:26,605]: So the idea was that the SAT was supposed to democratize education [01:33:31,785]: We’re just going to locate Discover kids who’ve got double 800s who you wouldn’t have spotted [01:33:36,565]: Exactly [01:33:37,225]: Right [01:33:38,065]: And actually I have a child who got an 800 couldn’t get into college [01:33:43,085]: So clearly it’s like the system has gotten so corrupt [01:33:46,425]: So but the idea in Kaplan you said corrupted it as well [01:33:50,845]: Well it kind of corrupted the SAT [01:33:54,485]: Right that’s what I’m saying [01:33:55,305]: So Now the GRE which is the next level is nowhere near as corrupted because by then the students don’t give a damn [01:34:01,325]: They do I’ll take the GRE [01:34:02,665]: So it’s more legit [01:34:04,165]: But is there I mean but the idea of a colorblind classblind pure meritocracy test is I mean why give up on that [01:34:16,125]: Here’s what I think we should do [01:34:17,685]: I was graduate I was a graduate director of graduate studies which involved admission into our grad program for seven years record [01:34:29,585]: The only guy who held the four administrative positions in the chemistry department [01:34:33,285]: So that’s pretty good for being the chemistry douchebag [01:34:37,525]: And you learn about things [01:34:40,025]: And I read undergraduate admissions on purpose for a number of years [01:34:43,565]: And you read regions [01:34:45,585]: So I might read Manhattan for example [01:34:47,605]: And you learn about who’s applying and stuff like that [01:34:50,425]: And what I think you wanna look for is a system where you see evidence that a kid overcame something [01:34:57,945]: And it’s not about color although you could say non statistically it’s about color [01:35:03,405]: Right but a kid from the Ozarks you know J D [01:35:06,725]: Vance who I find his origin story a little suspicious I must admit [01:35:13,325]: But so we had a kid who applied and everything was sunshines and skittles rainbows in his application [01:35:19,205]: And one of his line of writers said his mother died here his father died here he was raised by his neighbors you know and I’m going and he didn’t mention it [01:35:26,825]: I hope you let him in [01:35:27,885]: Oh my God yes [01:35:30,265]: You give me in graduate admissions I see some kid from Stanford with a I see some kid from Stanford with 3 0 I didn’t take him [01:35:38,885]: Because a 3 0 is a kid who accepted a 3 0 [01:35:43,105]: You show me I’ll take a 4 0 from St Mary’s College of the Divinity [01:35:47,545]: Because that kid said here’s the they said here’s a high you shouldn’t get to that kid got there right [01:35:53,105]: MIT kids with lousy GPAs are lousy grad students even though they’re smarter than hell but they’re cocky [01:36:02,125]: Now it turns out you show me a kid from Stanford with a 3 0 who played football I take the kid in a heartbeat [01:36:08,545]: You show me a kid from Stanford who is a 3 0 who is a brilliant violinist I’ll take that kid [01:36:19,565]: Here’s my son my son applies to Cornell for reasons you know he was gonna get in [01:36:25,705]: But his resume I had one son who was underachiever as a kid who’s now phenomenal and the one who is a superachiever [01:36:34,525]: What’s superachieving [01:36:36,325]: And we didn’t push him because it was a pain in the ass [01:36:40,125]: We were driving all the time [01:36:42,525]: All state orchestra first violin [01:36:46,785]: Gold medalist in the eight state regional gymnastics championship [01:36:51,505]: Fifth in the nation equestrian played lacrosse [01:36:57,805]: Got a resume better than that [01:37:00,325]: So here’s what happened [01:37:01,865]: My older son who could care less about school just nothing [01:37:07,165]: His teacher was like sweet kid no attention [01:37:10,485]: At one point I said to a teacher said the only kids he’s beaten are crack babies [01:37:14,225]: And she kind of blew a snot bubble and then said yeah [01:37:18,365]: He’s now phenomenally successful [01:37:20,185]: He’s a super dad [01:37:22,585]: I’m so proud of the level of dadness that he is [01:37:25,945]: He’s the director of event management at the Council on Foreign Relations [01:37:31,125]: After being the most underwhelming kid in high school he grew up [01:37:35,245]: He climbed Mount Stupid a little bit late [01:37:36,905]: Unfortunately he was in a family that could help him get over it when the time came [01:37:41,865]: The thing that we get credit for is not breaking him [01:37:47,785]: It’s not forcing him into a mold that didn’t fit [01:37:51,265]: You know who he is [01:37:52,185]: You know the book Ferdinand the Bull [01:37:54,065]: Of course [01:37:54,765]: Child’s story [01:37:54,925]: Yeah yeah [01:37:55,385]: That book wasn’t for kids [01:37:56,945]: That was for the parents [01:37:59,065]: That was telling the parents your kid is Ferdinand maybe [01:38:03,745]: My other one was Mike Mulligan’s steam shovel [01:38:07,585]: Right faster [01:38:08,865]: The more people watched the faster he went [01:38:12,705]: Ironically the overachiever got to Cornell and got lost [01:38:17,585]: The underachiever just grew nicely in college [01:38:21,285]: Now the younger one is now a professional after trying cubicle farming and all that crap that you get by being a business major at Cornell Hotel School [01:38:30,485]: He’s a professional violinist in Boston [01:38:34,105]: Better outcome [01:38:35,405]: Better outcome Bank of Dad’s important because violinists in Boston don’t make a lot of money [01:38:40,905]: But I’m happy to support it because it’s his soul [01:38:44,405]: You know why he’s a professional [01:38:45,365]: You want neurobiology [01:38:47,205]: My wife was flat on her back when she was pregnant [01:38:49,665]: She put headphones against her stomach and played classical music when he was in the womb [01:38:54,845]: I know prenatal development’s important [01:38:57,385]: By the time he’s three years old his friends are singing B I N G O and he’s listening to orchestra pieces [01:39:02,205]: He’d say I like this part right here [01:39:04,125]: And you’d hear the second violins come in there and he’d go right there I like that [01:39:08,045]: And I’m going holy shit this kid’s got an ear [01:39:11,665]: He has an ear like you [01:39:14,065]: He developed an ear in the womb [01:39:17,425]: So don’t do that to your womb [01:39:19,385]: You’ll have a musician in your family if you do that [01:39:22,205]: So I want to ask you here since you mentioned the struggle the triumph but also the struggle to pay for it because the economy doesn’t support young people very well since you did call the financial collapse of 2008 it sounds like [01:39:41,325]: In 2002 [01:39:42,305]: In 2002 [01:39:43,245]: So you couldn’t get rich shorting anything [01:39:46,145]: I shorted twice [01:39:48,045]: Shorting’s for fools and pros [01:39:49,685]: And the Venn diagram of those two is almost that [01:39:52,405]: That’s exactly right [01:39:53,425]: There are both [01:39:54,125]: I know both yeah [01:39:56,765]: Where are we now [01:39:58,565]: We’re in a catastrophic situation [01:40:01,725]: Catastrophe seems strong [01:40:03,705]: Yeah [01:40:04,905]: Well I think you can make arguments the economy has a lot of problems [01:40:09,005]: And there’s a paradoxical problem with the economy [01:40:12,585]: And that is you can go up to any 7 Eleven and they can’t hire [01:40:17,105]: There’s help wanted ads [01:40:18,745]: So it looks like an economy burning hot [01:40:21,625]: But if you look at the high end there’s layoffs going everywhere [01:40:25,045]: There’s foreshadowing of real trouble coming [01:40:29,365]: So college graduates even Ivy League graduates humanities graduates not engineers or chemists but the business guy or whatever they’re having trouble getting jobs [01:40:38,385]: The kind that they’re trained for certainly [01:40:40,665]: Yeah but there’s just I mean I know a bunch of them but you see it in the numbers [01:40:45,685]: Educated 22 year olds are having trouble getting jobs but 7 Eleven can’t hire [01:40:50,945]: Right [01:40:51,465]: So what is that [01:40:52,765]: Well so this is a normal sort of it’s a distorted version of I think a recession coming or we’re in [01:41:00,585]: Now where it gets complicated is if you don’t believe the inflation numbers which I don’t [01:41:06,285]: And you’ve got Chapwood Index and shadow stats that give inflation numbers that are probably on average six or 7 higher than the official numbers [01:41:14,925]: The official numbers are corrupted [01:41:16,525]: And I don’t want to go into it because it’s technical but But the CPI is stupid [01:41:20,625]: The CPI is crap [01:41:21,425]: Yeah I agree with that [01:41:22,365]: Now here’s the problem [01:41:23,425]: If the economy’s been growing 2 5 and the inflation numbers are underestimated by four means we’ve been in a recession the whole way [01:41:31,865]: Yeah moving backwards [01:41:32,625]: We’re moving backwards [01:41:33,305]: And you say well that can’t happen [01:41:34,725]: The recessions last you know two quarters or whatever [01:41:36,725]: And I go no the British Empire was in a recession for a century right [01:41:41,245]: They just shrunk and shrunk and shrunk [01:41:43,565]: And so no you can be in a slow decline [01:41:49,565]: So but that’s not what we’re that’s not the catastrophe [01:41:51,605]: Recession means decline [01:41:53,385]: Yeah actually I think it’s a stupid word because You play golf [01:41:58,745]: No [01:41:59,345]: Well if you play golf you go down into the sand trap [01:42:03,405]: According to the definition of a recession once you start climbing out you’re out [01:42:07,385]: You ask a golfer if he’s out of the sand trap because he’s on the upslope of the trap he’s not [01:42:12,745]: No [01:42:13,405]: So the fact that your economy’s now growing again if it’s coming out of a hole as far as I’m concerned you’re not out until you’ve gotten past that previous period [01:42:21,945]: So you’re at par [01:42:22,825]: Yeah so you’re at par right [01:42:24,325]: Now that’s not the catastrophe because they happen all the time and we’ve been able to either cover them or fake them or prevent them through very bad monetary policy [01:42:34,625]: Right and what’s bad [01:42:37,805]: Pumping the stock market is just stupid [01:42:40,625]: But private equity buys private equity buys has bought up 80 of the hospitals the healthcare [01:42:50,785]: And what they do is they go in and they buy some organization they strip of its assets they load it with debt they pay themselves huge fees and bonuses and then they sell the shell of a company which is now effectively worthless into the marketplace like to pension funds who are not smart enough to recognize that they just bought a piece of crap [01:43:17,365]: And according to Gretchen Morgenson a 47 bankruptcy rate [01:43:25,765]: Now Post sale [01:43:27,425]: Post sale [01:43:28,465]: Now as long as it’s profitable to buy viable companies destroy them sell the shell and make money monetary money’s too loose [01:43:42,225]: Precious capital if capital is of real value it’s a moat [01:43:50,625]: So good businessmen can get capital bad businessmen can’t [01:43:54,605]: The fact that BlackRock could get get buy single family dwellings which is a terrible business [01:44:02,705]: You really can’t make money unless you can unless there’s a housing boom and you leverage up to hell [01:44:09,845]: The fact that they could get it for at an interest rate of 0 5 0 15 is a highly flawed system [01:44:17,425]: And that’s where the inventory went after 07 09 [01:44:20,725]: They got bought up by these guys who could lever up and then charge rents to people [01:44:25,417]: So they basically scoop up the housing market [01:44:29,497]: With free money [01:44:30,897]: With free money [01:44:32,197]: Kind of free money [01:44:33,457]: Unlike you know credit cards which are 25 right [01:44:36,977]: And not just free [01:44:38,397]: I mean once you factor in inflation [01:44:40,637]: It’s a gift [01:44:41,597]: Yeah [01:44:43,277]: It’s profitable money [01:44:45,057]: Literally just taking the loan is profitable [01:44:46,937]: Yes [01:44:47,317]: You don’t have to do anything with it [01:44:48,317]: Yes [01:44:48,637]: Yes [01:44:48,757]: Right [01:44:48,977]: Yeah [01:44:49,877]: So here’s what happened [01:44:52,417]: Somehow the market has ceased to respond [01:44:56,457]: And the reason the market’s important is because of the wealth effect [01:45:03,317]: And that is that if you own equities you own a house and they’re soaring in price your spending habits change [01:45:14,377]: I’m having a great year for example [01:45:16,097]: So when the bank of dad has to provide some liquidity to the children I feel okay about it right [01:45:24,457]: The problem is is that it’s a false wealth [01:45:28,517]: It’s not real wealth [01:45:29,357]: It’s a false wealth [01:45:30,597]: So what happened [01:45:32,377]: Well I’m getting tired of seeing these [01:45:34,417]: I see four year plots of the equity market and they make various comparisons [01:45:38,077]: I go don’t go back four years [01:45:40,097]: Don’t go back 40 years [01:45:41,197]: Go back 120 years [01:45:43,377]: So I follow about 25 metrics of valuation [01:45:49,417]: Valuation is inherently a price of the market relative to something it ought to track whether it’s the earnings the revenues the book value I think I’ll Tobin’s Q the GDP which is a fictional number as I’ve heard you recently say but I follow about 25 of them [01:46:08,977]: So you’ve got to track whether the markets have gotten expensive relative to the thing it ought to track [01:46:16,997]: Now around 1981 the markets were at the cheapest valuation arguably in history [01:46:25,757]: Inflation was scaring everyone which is why they were cheap [01:46:30,737]: It turns out that the boomers were just hitting the workforce so demographics was a huge tailwind starting around then and most economists agree demographics is huge [01:46:42,697]: Now I’m disingenuous in that I quote economists selectively [01:46:47,517]: In the next sentence I’ll probably say something horrible about them and so I’m obviously cherry picking my data but economists like demographics [01:46:55,897]: So the boomers hit the workplace so it was almost guaranteed [01:46:58,417]: I think Reagan was not important [01:47:00,797]: I think he did some very important things but I think whoever got to be president was going to be at the beginning of a boom [01:47:08,757]: It turns out that China was coming out of the Dark Ages [01:47:13,747]: They started selling labor at slave wages [01:47:18,147]: They were so desperate for capital when they sent their leader don’t make me pronounce his name to the United Nations when he first started opening up [01:47:28,727]: Was it Deng Xiaoping [01:47:29,807]: Yes [01:47:30,327]: And they had to scrounge to get the money to send him [01:47:35,727]: I mean they really didn’t have any foreign capital [01:47:38,267]: And so I remember when China said we’re going to let our workers keep some of their profits and it’s like whoa [01:47:47,287]: Russia had Soviet Union hadn’t collapsed but they were in trouble so they were obviously cranking a resource base as hard as they could and we had our guys in there helping them and stuff like that [01:47:58,327]: And interest rates were at all time highs [01:48:02,087]: And if you read a 1999 article by Buffett who I think is a hoser I think he’s much more of a stock jobber much more of a conniver than he is [01:48:12,247]: He loves to be the mafia don walking around in a bathrobe saying I’m harmless [01:48:17,167]: He is not harmless [01:48:19,567]: When we’re in a bottom he breaks all sorts of laws [01:48:22,707]: They do all sorts of insider crap to bail the system out [01:48:25,507]: But he pretends to just like Dairy Queen and Coca Cola whatever [01:48:29,247]: He wrote an article in 99 that said you want to understand secular big long bull versus bear markets it’s all interest rates [01:48:36,187]: He said it’s not GDP [01:48:37,647]: He said from 67 to 81 everything sucked [01:48:40,247]: It treaded water not accounting for inflation and the markets dropped 75 accounting for So it was a horrible period [01:48:48,247]: He said the GDP grew faster during that period than from 81 to 99 [01:48:55,987]: But interest rates from 67 to 81 went up monotonically [01:49:00,927]: From 81 to 99 they went down [01:49:03,907]: So we started in 81 with interest rates in the high teens and over the next 40 years they dropped to zero [01:49:12,087]: That is absolutely the story [01:49:14,687]: So when interest rates are dropping risk assets go up [01:49:18,947]: Because they’re competing against it as they get cheaper [01:49:21,487]: So bottom line is that we just enjoyed 40 year recency bias [01:49:27,207]: Can you just explain that principle right there [01:49:29,767]: You said as interest rates drop risk assets go up [01:49:32,487]: Or you’re going to buy shares of a stock that by the way has treated you like crap over the previous 14 years or a bond that pays you 17 [01:49:41,417]: Right [01:49:41,967]: Right [01:49:42,747]: So the bonds become less the fixed income becomes less and less attractive steadily for 40 years [01:49:47,607]: Now take the Case Shiller PE which is just one of the metrics but I happen to like it [01:49:52,667]: It’s a kind of an averaged earnings price earnings ratio [01:49:56,467]: It also doesn’t allow you to cheat because it doesn’t use the immediate [01:50:01,687]: And forward PEs are stupid but Case Shiller averages so I like it [01:50:05,487]: If you take the Case Shiller from 1880 to 1990 it just channels [01:50:13,107]: It’s a valuation metric and it just goes up and down and up and down and that’s what it should do [01:50:17,087]: It responds to things [01:50:18,927]: But it stays in a channel it’s flat [01:50:21,467]: Valuation metrics shouldn’t trend [01:50:24,847]: They should trend for a while but then they should regress to the mean unless someone can give me an argument why they should trend and I don’t think there is one and I’ve tried to find one [01:50:33,347]: And then in 1990 they just kind of started to take off [01:50:38,547]: And the Case Shiller so the Case Shiller PE averaged around 12 13 for 110 years [01:50:47,787]: Then around 1990 oddly 1994 in every metric is when things left [01:50:53,167]: I think it was because of a bond problem or something [01:50:55,227]: I haven’t been able to quite figure out why [01:50:57,947]: But the valuations went up [01:50:59,267]: Now here’s the problem with valuations going up and now they’re astronomical [01:51:03,427]: So the Case Shiller PE averaged 13 which meant it was priced to return about 8 a year [01:51:10,527]: If you think of it as a gas station and you’re paying 13 to 1 earnings you’re getting about 8 [01:51:18,227]: And if it keeps pumping gas every year you get about 13 [01:51:24,847]: It is now 38 [01:51:29,227]: It’s way above where it should be [01:51:32,187]: It’s a factor of 3 200 [01:51:35,847]: Now if you assume it’s never going to regress to the mean now you’re accepting crudely speaking a 2 5 return not an 8 [01:51:45,807]: Now if you’re okay with 2 5 that’s fine [01:51:48,347]: But by the way most pensioners most boomers are not planning on 2 5 [01:51:52,587]: No they’re not [01:51:53,227]: Right [01:51:53,547]: Now if it regresses to the mean it’s a 70 correction assuming if it’s fast assuming nothing else changes [01:52:03,507]: No damage to the economy all the bad things that happen when you lose 70 off the equity market which is a questionable assumption [01:52:14,547]: Another way to think about it which I think is much clearer is if you say look we’ll just grow our way [01:52:21,327]: I think I go up or down or up and down [01:52:22,827]: You don’t worry about the path [01:52:24,907]: You say if we grow 2 5 a year which I just questioned as being valid but let’s assume it’s valid [01:52:31,767]: If we grow 2 5 a year to get back to historical average of 13 we’ll take 45 years [01:52:40,347]: Now here’s the thing [01:52:41,307]: I made no assumptions about good news bad news [01:52:43,287]: I assume this is going to be like the 20th century [01:52:47,007]: 2 5 a year it’ll be 45 years from now [01:52:50,547]: I don’t care what path you follow [01:52:52,307]: If we are at the average case yield or PE and the economy grew 2 5 a year the equity markets will have returned capital gains zero [01:53:04,907]: And it doesn’t matter if we crash and spike [01:53:07,407]: It doesn’t matter if we get to a Dow 40 000 50 000 60 000 45 years from now if we’re at the mean we will have earned nothing [01:53:18,947]: Now you say well that would never happen [01:53:20,547]: You go well if you own the 06 the 1906 high you were even after something like 40 years [01:53:32,187]: I don’t ask from if you own You were even after 40 years [01:53:36,147]: If you own the top people always say well how long did it take to get back to the top [01:53:42,647]: That’s a favorite question [01:53:43,727]: You go oh you know it took 22 years [01:53:45,507]: Oh it took 15 years [01:53:46,787]: Oh it took I like to ask the question no no no [01:53:48,987]: Not how long it took to get from the top back to even [01:53:54,367]: How long did it take to go from that top to the last time that that price was attained adjusted for inflation [01:54:05,427]: And those can go anywhere from 40 to 75 years [01:54:09,787]: All you have to do is look at inflation adjusted S P and draw a line from the top across the S P and you will find that most of them break even in the mid 80s no matter what year they started [01:54:22,347]: So you’re just answering the question what the hell is going on with land prices and asset prices [01:54:28,107]: Oh everything everything’s mispriced [01:54:31,587]: But is it mispriced [01:54:32,787]: I mean if I’ve got excess money you know and I need to store it somewhere and I’m listening to you I’m like oh I think I’m going to buy something a little less volatile a little more real [01:54:47,327]: Like real estate [01:54:48,267]: Exactly [01:54:49,667]: Okay [01:54:51,507]: The first time home and I know this drives you bananas [01:54:54,867]: The first time homebuyers not too many decades ago were on average about 30 years old [01:55:00,307]: Yep [01:55:01,307]: I just read what’s the fact [01:55:03,147]: I don’t know [01:55:04,387]: 56 now [01:55:06,487]: First time homebuyers 56 [01:55:08,087]: That’s been a massive consequence [01:55:10,347]: Do you want to buy that into that market that somehow seems like it has to regress [01:55:18,787]: Because you can’t have people going 56 years without owning a house right [01:55:25,307]: You personally I think it was in Turning Point USA you went absolutely nonstop [01:55:30,787]: About how you can worry about Ukraine but we’ve got young adults who can’t raise families and houses [01:55:39,947]: Yeah and it creates a very scary political environment where people don’t own anything and therefore have nothing to lose and no future [01:55:47,627]: Right [01:55:47,987]: Well here’s an interesting ADHD moment [01:55:53,887]: Monogamy versus polygamy [01:55:55,547]: And this will sound random but it’ll get you to the same story [01:55:58,227]: No it’s a core question actually [01:55:59,827]: These are the building blocks of the West [01:56:02,027]: Turns out polygamy monogamy is viewed as favoring women [01:56:07,667]: That turns out to be backwards [01:56:11,747]: And it’s a simple math [01:56:13,547]: Imagine there’s 100 people ranked one to 100 [01:56:16,347]: Number 100 is Mr Big Cheese [01:56:18,647]: And on the women’s side hottest chick on the planet right [01:56:21,707]: Right [01:56:23,127]: Monogamy says number one would marry number one number two would marry number two in the perfect system [01:56:27,487]: So think of it as just a very simple model [01:56:29,827]: And that what you can’t do is if you’re at the bottom of the chain marry up [01:56:37,167]: If you do then someone else gets pushed down [01:56:40,667]: Right [01:56:41,027]: So it would be of the interest of the girl working 7 Eleven to be Jeff Bezos second wife [01:56:50,247]: Yeah I think that happened [01:56:51,607]: So in fact you can upgrade your game [01:56:56,587]: And you know Elon right [01:56:58,787]: The guy’s a reproduction machine right [01:57:01,407]: The women are signing off on it because it’s better to be with a guy worth that kind of money than broke [01:57:08,507]: Right [01:57:09,367]: And so it turns out that you say well then why did cultural evolution lead to monogamy [01:57:16,727]: And the answer is is because it minimizes violence [01:57:22,487]: Right [01:57:23,207]: It’s for the men [01:57:25,727]: Of course [01:57:26,687]: So they don’t fight [01:57:28,787]: Yeah because in a polygamous system all the high status males scoop up all the women [01:57:32,807]: Well now in a situation where men can’t provide the home for their families and stuff like that so we’re going to fight [01:57:40,287]: I’ve noticed [01:57:41,667]: I’ve noticed that too [01:57:43,267]: And so now here’s the deal [01:57:45,007]: Let’s say I’m right and we’re to market top [01:57:48,087]: And if I’m not I think we’re close [01:57:51,067]: One of the things that my peers who were paranoid as hell about this some very smart guys they tend not to put numbers on it [01:57:58,827]: I’m one of the few who puts numbers on it [01:58:00,727]: There’s a couple others who do but they just say all the valuations are ridiculous [01:58:05,187]: But no one wants to be on record that we’re going to say it’s catastrophically overpriced [01:58:13,067]: Whatever correction you get you say see I told you I’m saying 200 overpriced [01:58:18,387]: Now how do you get out of overvaluation [01:58:20,987]: You can’t inflate your way out [01:58:22,787]: No [01:58:23,047]: Because the numerator the price and the denominator the thing is supposed to track both are influenced by inflation [01:58:32,267]: So as your price goes up because of inflation your revenues go up because of inflation [01:58:37,887]: You’re still 200 over historical average valuation [01:58:41,767]: And so you can’t inflate away in overvaluation [01:58:47,047]: So what I mean is this just a gravity scenario or ultimately it has to revert to its actual model [01:58:52,707]: I have and they never work because it’s always one of these something will be creatively different [01:58:57,827]: But the best model is the Nikkei [01:59:01,007]: Japan hit a high in 89 [01:59:04,447]: It briefly got back to that 35 years later [01:59:07,407]: It’s actually below that I think if I remember correctly [01:59:10,567]: Inflation adjusts for that guaranteed it’s below it [01:59:13,367]: Yes that’s right [01:59:14,307]: I asked someone during a podcast if you can do this spreadsheet for me I’d love to get it [01:59:18,907]: Someone did it [01:59:19,587]: I said what if you started buying the Nikkei at the top [01:59:22,427]: If you own the Nikkei at the top you’re dead meat [01:59:26,147]: You died broke [01:59:27,627]: But what if you started buying [01:59:30,487]: 22 year old graduate of Tokyo University [01:59:33,247]: You started putting yen into the Nikkei in 1989 [01:59:37,427]: How long if you averaged did it take you to break even [01:59:41,187]: It’s around two decades [01:59:44,607]: Starting with zero in the Nikkei [01:59:47,327]: So I was on a podcast with George Noble a Twitter space actually [01:59:50,467]: He was Peter Lynch’s right hand man [01:59:52,987]: And he said well I said I think the markets will be uninvestable [01:59:56,967]: He said oh you can do this and this [01:59:58,567]: And I said the Nikkei [01:59:59,547]: And he said oh you could short [02:00:00,467]: I said no you couldn’t [02:00:01,807]: You can’t short a market that takes 20 years to find a bottom [02:00:05,687]: Right it’s a long time [02:00:06,687]: You can short a market like in 07 to 09 [02:00:08,907]: Right right right [02:00:09,627]: A volatile market [02:00:10,647]: Yes [02:00:11,527]: You can’t [02:00:12,427]: A market in inexorable decline can’t be shorted [02:00:14,687]: So if we’re in a top aren’t tops supposed to be euphoric [02:00:19,307]: Remember the dot com [02:00:20,667]: Oh yes very well [02:00:21,307]: The world was changing [02:00:22,827]: The nifty fifty you know [02:00:25,647]: Webvan and e toys and pets com [02:00:28,567]: The roaring 20s you know sustainable prosperity [02:00:31,267]: We are supposed to be true believers that the world is wonderful [02:00:35,127]: Do you sense much of the population thinks the world’s wonderful [02:00:39,067]: I don’t [02:00:39,407]: I don’t sense that [02:00:40,787]: And all around us are signs of it [02:00:42,347]: What’s it going to look like when 70 gets clipped off this market [02:00:47,267]: So I’m immediately going to prepper survival mode [02:00:49,767]: And where are the enduring safe stores of value [02:00:55,267]: I don’t [02:00:56,047]: You can’t answer that [02:00:57,727]: I bought gold at around 270 an ounce [02:01:02,107]: 270 [02:01:03,547]: 270 [02:01:04,367]: I hope you bought a lot of it [02:01:05,827]: I did [02:01:06,847]: But it’s worth a lot more now [02:01:08,867]: You think [02:01:09,787]: Yeah [02:01:10,907]: What’s the spot price today [02:01:12,307]: Do you know [02:01:13,707]: Ballpark 3 300 [02:01:15,167]: Yeah [02:01:15,507]: I bought silver [02:01:16,647]: I bought gold below 270 [02:01:18,327]: I’ll tell you why [02:01:18,967]: Because my first purchases were actually in a closed end mutual fund that was trading 27 below net asset valuation [02:01:26,167]: Because people say oh it was easy to buy back then [02:01:28,487]: It was cheap [02:01:28,867]: I said it was cheap because five of us wanted it [02:01:31,587]: Right [02:01:31,607]: Well of course [02:01:33,047]: Right [02:01:33,507]: And by the way the top some Tuesday afternoon at 2 03 PM we will hit a top that will be decades later to be returned to potentially [02:01:44,407]: The top is the point of maximum optimism which paradoxically is the moment in time where your justification for optimism is zero [02:01:54,285]: The bottom is the same thing in reverse [02:01:57,385]: Of course [02:01:58,605]: So we’re not happy now [02:02:00,345]: So you’re saying the herd’s not always right [02:02:02,025]: Is that what you’re saying [02:02:02,625]: I’m told [02:02:03,725]: I’m told [02:02:04,785]: Wait so let’s hold on [02:02:05,705]: Let’s just go back to gold for a second [02:02:07,385]: So you buy [02:02:08,285]: I bought gold net at around 210 [02:02:11,285]: Come on [02:02:12,225]: Well I bought it 28 below NAV when it was 270 [02:02:16,165]: Physical delivery [02:02:17,005]: No that was not physical [02:02:18,405]: But then I started buying physical [02:02:19,345]: Here’s what I did [02:02:20,205]: I bought gold from the local coin dealer [02:02:22,325]: Yeah [02:02:23,345]: And I’d say when you get ounces I’ll pay cash [02:02:26,245]: And he sold it to me at spot [02:02:30,045]: And he’d call and say I got three ounces in [02:02:32,405]: I’d go to the bank [02:02:33,185]: I’d get out 900 right [02:02:35,925]: And I’d buy the gold from him cash [02:02:39,125]: I’d buy silver from him cash [02:02:40,985]: I could buy silver eagles at spot [02:02:43,265]: You go on eBay holy shit those things are like 10 bucks above spot [02:02:48,685]: And it was for ballpark 4 an ounce [02:02:54,385]: And then I remember it was at 4 57 and I was buying from him and he said don’t you think there’s a top [02:03:01,205]: He knew I was going to buy it [02:03:02,645]: He says don’t you think there’s a top [02:03:04,985]: 457 an ounce for gold [02:03:06,345]: There’s like oh three or something [02:03:08,545]: I don’t know [02:03:09,245]: And I said how many people are buying gold from you [02:03:12,405]: He said oh about four [02:03:13,505]: And I said and the other three are my friends aren’t they [02:03:16,225]: He said yeah [02:03:17,385]: And I said does that sound like a mania to you [02:03:22,245]: And so here’s the thing I’ve been on [02:03:27,485]: I’m a big fan of energy but I think when the selling starts everything sells [02:03:31,905]: You’ll be selling your children [02:03:33,245]: You’ll be selling right [02:03:34,105]: Everything sells [02:03:34,825]: So I think the idea of trying to get into any risk assets is so dangerous [02:03:38,245]: I’ll take 4 on a treasury two year treasury [02:03:41,725]: Some people think you know I’ll lock it up for two years [02:03:43,785]: Oh that’ll save me [02:03:45,905]: I won’t dip buy after six months [02:03:48,925]: So at what price would you buy gold again [02:03:51,625]: Well I’ve got so much I don’t need anymore [02:03:53,705]: If I didn’t own any I’d buy it now [02:03:55,585]: But the Bitcoin guys would say buy Bitcoin at 117 000 [02:03:58,685]: I turned it down at 10 000 [02:04:00,845]: I wish I’d bought it [02:04:02,125]: I would have sold it at 50 000 and spent the proceeds on therapy [02:04:06,625]: Well why on therapy [02:04:08,325]: Because I would have sold it at 50 000 [02:04:10,365]: Right [02:04:10,805]: Good point [02:04:11,885]: And I know I would have [02:04:13,945]: I know I would have [02:04:14,545]: You don’t believe in crypto [02:04:16,205]: I don’t think so [02:04:17,685]: The crypto community I am their number one target [02:04:20,285]: They say you are a hodler and I won’t buy it [02:04:24,565]: And the reason is because I believe that several layers [02:04:28,165]: One is that I believe that the authorities are not going to let crypto take over [02:04:33,685]: Of course not [02:04:34,985]: And by the way that means that They’re going to lose total control over society [02:04:38,505]: That’s right [02:04:39,045]: I don’t think so [02:04:40,425]: The Rothschilds are going to hand it over to Max Keiser and Michael Saylor [02:04:43,785]: I don’t think so [02:04:45,865]: You don’t [02:04:46,905]: Here’s what I think it actually is [02:04:47,965]: The first paper on crypto was written by three NSA guys [02:04:51,525]: That means I think if I were smart and I were going to bring in central bank digital currency which is an authoritarian nightmare I would do it the way they did [02:05:04,685]: I’d release the crypto [02:05:06,205]: I’d have guys pumping it [02:05:07,525]: I’d have guys supporting it [02:05:08,885]: I’d let them debug the networks and the kinks and acclimate people to it [02:05:14,685]: And then I’d say okay it was fun [02:05:17,145]: We’ll take it from here [02:05:21,085]: And in the process of course you acclimate people to this new Digital world [02:05:24,985]: New kind of commerce [02:05:25,825]: Yeah exactly [02:05:27,245]: No that’s it [02:05:27,725]: And I’d get rid of the ATMs and I would make airport convenience stores credit card only [02:05:32,805]: And I would do all that stuff to change people’s habits [02:05:35,705]: Cash is liberty [02:05:36,465]: Of course [02:05:36,885]: I couldn’t agree more [02:05:38,385]: So you just have too much gold [02:05:41,885]: You just don’t want any more gold [02:05:43,085]: I just No no [02:05:44,325]: I’m What about real estate right now [02:05:47,305]: I’m long [02:05:48,305]: I own a nice house [02:05:49,305]: I’m long real estate by owning that house [02:05:51,665]: I wouldn’t buy real estate as a speculation [02:05:54,385]: If you put a gun to my head I’d say maybe farmland [02:05:58,025]: But that’s been getting scooped up [02:06:00,005]: That’s a pretty trite narrative now [02:06:02,285]: Big time [02:06:02,885]: Well I follow that because I’m interested [02:06:05,005]: And I mean it’s turning for just crazy numbers in anchor [02:06:09,785]: And that Well that’s a problem [02:06:11,145]: That’s what I’m saying [02:06:12,545]: So So here’s what I watch for years and then jumped in [02:06:15,485]: And it’s a problem [02:06:16,545]: The modern market I bought gold steadily from 99 through about 03 [02:06:21,905]: And then I bought some more when it was around 1200 in the teens [02:06:26,045]: I said okay it’s kind of flattened out [02:06:27,965]: I’m going to get some more [02:06:29,385]: So I bought it around 1 200 in maybe 2016 or something [02:06:35,485]: And but the modern markets don’t wait [02:06:37,965]: If you get a good idea and social media and stuff it will close up that gap so fast you don’t know what hit you [02:06:45,865]: So I’m bullish on energy long term energy equities and stuff but I think they’re going to sell before they become a good buy [02:06:52,345]: So I just can’t commit a lot of money to the energy even though I think I have some mutual funds on uranium based investments which I think we got to go to [02:07:01,025]: And now it looks like we are [02:07:03,565]: I actually think AI is not demanding nuclear energy [02:07:08,185]: I think AI is being used as a Trojan horse to bring in nuclear energy which I support [02:07:14,145]: I think they’re using the buzz of AI to say now let’s get the nukes going [02:07:18,805]: People say yeah nukes we need it for the AI [02:07:21,925]: We’ve needed nukes [02:07:22,705]: It was the obvious next thing to go to [02:07:26,745]: Platinum [02:07:28,045]: For years I watched platinum [02:07:29,285]: Owned so little platinum that if it went to zero I wouldn’t even notice [02:07:35,585]: I mean trivial trivial amount [02:07:38,285]: And I’ve been watching it’s been flat [02:07:40,125]: I mean flat as in like a flat line not moving away from 900 an ounce by a few dollars flat for 10 years after dropping [02:07:50,265]: And I go what’s the platinum story [02:07:52,085]: Well the platinum story is I don’t trade [02:07:55,705]: I don’t trade at all [02:07:56,465]: If I buy it I’m buying it saying look I’m hanging on to it [02:07:59,685]: If it goes down I don’t trade [02:08:02,865]: The platinum story is I don’t believe in the EV [02:08:05,765]: I don’t think it’s a good technology [02:08:07,665]: I think it’ll be here but I don’t think it’s going to take over the world [02:08:10,405]: I think the hybrids are going to take over the world [02:08:13,425]: Well they make sense [02:08:14,145]: They make inherent sense [02:08:15,185]: Yeah yeah yeah [02:08:15,765]: They’re more efficient [02:08:16,745]: They use more platinum than internal combustion engines because their catalytic converters burn colder so they need more platinum [02:08:26,585]: Now here’s where it gets real interesting [02:08:29,445]: The platinum miners are in Russia and South Africa [02:08:36,005]: Russia will therefore have control [02:08:38,365]: South Africa could become a failed state so fast you don’t know what hit you right [02:08:42,785]: More to the point and again trying to get real facts on this stuff but the above ground platinum supply the available platinum supply is something like 3 billion which is something a medium sized hedge fund could buy at current prices [02:09:01,645]: It’s been in deficit production for at least four years [02:09:05,105]: What does deficit production mean [02:09:06,285]: Means that we’re consuming more per year than the miners are producing [02:09:10,845]: Based on the rate of deficit production that the above ground supply will be gone within about a year [02:09:19,125]: So there’s no more platinum [02:09:21,885]: We could go to potentially palladium but whatever [02:09:25,085]: Platinum has not gone through a mean phase so a little bit of trade army says that mean phase could get spectacular [02:09:31,125]: Platinum could go to 20 000 [02:09:32,765]: Not that it should [02:09:33,005]: Because it has industrial uses it seems kind of natural right [02:09:37,285]: So I reached out to some technical analysts who draw the squiggles on the curves and I’m sarcastically occasionally commenting about technical analysis but I can’t do it or don’t believe in it or whatever [02:09:50,305]: But I asked a few I said look at this plot [02:09:53,905]: Where would you start getting excited [02:09:55,705]: Because it’s been flat for 10 years I don’t need to put money in and have it sit there for 10 years more [02:10:01,085]: And a few gave me opinions about what price and I kind of formulated an opinion where I had to start and then hit it [02:10:08,685]: Now instead of buying it slowly I said in the modern era you got to move quick [02:10:14,505]: So I started hitting the buy button and I’m still not I face a boomer dilemma [02:10:21,565]: The boomer dilemma is the good news is my net worth is good enough [02:10:26,785]: If I don’t screw up I’m fine [02:10:28,925]: I mean I could retire today not earn another penny fine [02:10:32,225]: I want to leave money to my kids I will be able to [02:10:36,525]: The paradox is that to commit to an asset requires committing a percentage that’s not stupid [02:10:44,905]: If you commit 0 01 of your assets to it it’s not going to make a difference no matter what happens [02:10:51,185]: So if you say well 5 when I look at the quantity of money I have to spend to commit 5 it seems huge but it’s only 5 [02:11:05,305]: And so as a consequence I go look if it went to zero tomorrow I’d have a bad day [02:11:12,485]: I’d lose 5 of my assets but it would be too much money [02:11:17,445]: So I’m fighting this bias about how many dollars it takes to get to a [02:11:24,365]: I get it [02:11:25,025]: So let me ask you just a wrap up question which is given your description of where we are and you haven’t even mentioned what could be a debt crisis when people stop buying our debt or slow down but there are all kinds of things to worry about that seem imminent [02:11:42,465]: How does the average person respond [02:11:45,825]: They don’t have any money anyways [02:11:47,645]: Fair [02:11:49,125]: I mean the average person has no money [02:11:54,445]: So [02:11:54,725]: How does the 5 percentile boomer respond [02:11:57,525]: Yeah [02:11:58,285]: Well years ago I did an analysis on the 5 percentile boomer [02:12:01,065]: This is how bad it is [02:12:01,825]: This is years ago actually [02:12:03,925]: And it actually got vetted by Stephen Roach who’s executive director of Morgan Stanley [02:12:09,405]: He looked at my numbers and said actually you’ve overestimated something [02:12:12,225]: You should be more conservative [02:12:14,465]: I invented 5 percentile guy [02:12:16,505]: At that time he was worth 1 1 [02:12:18,765]: million [02:12:20,285]: He was earning 156 000 a year [02:12:23,965]: You also know he’s not 22 years old [02:12:26,525]: He’s probably a boomer because it takes a while to get to 5 percentile [02:12:31,705]: At a reasonable rate of withdrawal from a retirement account Mr 5 percentile guy who has to be living the American dream could take about 48 000 out [02:12:44,945]: Annually [02:12:47,065]: Without risking going broke [02:12:51,845]: And you know what [02:12:52,845]: They don’t know how to live on 48 000 [02:12:55,205]: And they might have other assets [02:12:56,405]: This is a complicated analysis but that’s a scary number [02:13:00,265]: For a modern life that’s a [02:13:01,925]: Yeah [02:13:02,425]: But the other thing is if he knew how to live on 48 000 he’d have more than 1 1 [02:13:07,165]: million [02:13:07,865]: Good point [02:13:08,945]: And so we’ve got a whole generation that has got expectations that are just off the chart distorted [02:13:16,185]: And it’s not because of a 5 year or a 10 year recency bias [02:13:20,745]: It’s a 40 year recency bias [02:13:23,345]: It’s 1981 [02:13:24,505]: Let me finish that story [02:13:26,285]: From 1981 the valuation which should not trend compounded annually 4 percent a year [02:13:37,325]: What happens over the next 40 years when it compounds negative 4 percent a year to get to cheap again [02:13:45,345]: Now you say well that’ll never happen [02:13:46,945]: I go of course it’ll happen [02:13:48,865]: Show me an asset class that got overpriced [02:13:50,625]: It didn’t become cheap again [02:13:52,685]: Well if you believe in markets that’s just by definition going to happen [02:13:56,065]: Right [02:13:56,085]: And if there’s a way to fake it so it doesn’t happen then it means you’re just diluting into what actually happened [02:14:00,725]: You’re not getting a reality [02:14:02,045]: Right [02:14:02,325]: Right [02:14:02,785]: And so the bottom line is is that the boomer demographic almost by definition was going to generate a bubble a big mother bubble because of the demographics [02:14:11,705]: Now I was telling you about how I was reading my old write ups from like 13 14 15 [02:14:19,245]: I make a compelling case that the markets were crazy [02:14:24,545]: How do I do it [02:14:25,045]: I use numbers [02:14:26,125]: I use stats [02:14:26,885]: And I use quotes from the most famous money guys in the world [02:14:29,945]: You know Paul Tudor Jones Stan Druckenmiller you name it [02:14:33,985]: These are not lightweights saying these markets are insanely overvalued [02:14:39,045]: In 2015 what has happened since then [02:14:42,685]: Straight up [02:14:44,145]: Oh for sure [02:14:45,825]: Now example Apple tenfold gain on a growth in revenues of 50 percent 95 percent correction brings that back down [02:15:04,385]: Microsoft 150 percent gain in revenues tenfold gain [02:15:10,745]: Doesn’t make mathematical sense [02:15:12,465]: Let’s go to Nvidia [02:15:13,485]: There’s the winner [02:15:14,365]: Four trillion dollars of market cap being run by a guy who has a very sketchy past [02:15:22,705]: Twenty five fold gain in revenues you go now we’re talking 250 fold gain in market cap [02:15:30,625]: Yeah [02:15:30,845]: So that’s the problem right [02:15:31,925]: Ninety percent correction takes you back to 2015 [02:15:35,005]: Do you remember 2015 being depressed [02:15:38,065]: I don’t [02:15:39,785]: Stan Druckenmiller didn’t think so [02:15:42,185]: Howard Marks didn’t think so [02:15:43,625]: All these guys were considered legends thought the markets were insanely overpriced in 15 [02:15:50,985]: And it’s been nothing but up [02:15:54,245]: And that will end [02:15:55,945]: I don’t know when [02:15:57,725]: And you think that all asset classes are tied to that [02:16:01,905]: I can’t say all because that means 100 percent [02:16:05,205]: But if I found something that I thought was dirt cheap I’m glad I own the gold from as cheap as I did because when it goes down I’m still up 15 fold or something right [02:16:21,805]: So it makes it easier [02:16:24,085]: Buying gold now from scratch would be harder [02:16:26,285]: It would be the number of dollars to get the percent position that sort of thing [02:16:34,665]: And I think the debt problem is global [02:16:37,025]: If you actually look at the metrics for the growth in the global debt relative to global GDP the entire world has become priced much more than 10 years ago relative to what the world produces [02:16:51,905]: So what’s a global debt crisis [02:16:53,925]: That’s a question [02:16:54,705]: Well you’ve got lenders and borrowers it’s a zero sum game [02:16:57,545]: No it’s not [02:16:58,585]: I know [02:16:59,245]: A global debt crisis is when the entire world thinks they’re going to get shit that the world can’t produce [02:17:05,945]: And the way you think of how to create one artificial Gedanken experiment let’s say the leaders of the world got together and said look let’s just solve this problem [02:17:13,505]: Let’s guarantee health care to all our citizens [02:17:16,225]: Let’s guarantee their pension all our citizens [02:17:19,725]: Problem solved [02:17:20,385]: They go well but you didn’t in any way shape or form increase the ability to produce wealth [02:17:25,105]: Right [02:17:25,805]: So you now have obligations for which you haven’t a clue how you’re going to pay for them [02:17:32,525]: Who’s going to do it [02:17:33,965]: Are we going to have the Chinese delivering Chinese food to our doors still [02:17:37,505]: I don’t think so [02:17:38,405]: We’re going to be delivering food to the Chinese [02:17:43,025]: So everything will regress [02:17:45,405]: 40 year recency bias says it won’t [02:17:48,185]: It will [02:17:50,685]: On that dark note I’m just picturing myself showing up at a doorstep in Beijing with some Kung Pao chicken [02:17:57,345]: Hoping for a tip [02:17:58,665]: Hoping for a tip [02:17:59,445]: I can see you now you turn the scanner around and shove the 25 tip in the guy’s face [02:18:07,725]: Professor thank you [02:18:08,785]: I hope this doesn’t get you fired [02:18:09,945]: I hope you’ll come back [02:18:11,705]: Anytime [02:18:12,245]: You call I’m in the car [02:18:13,565]: Thank you [02:18:18,005]: So it turns out that YouTube is suppressing this show [02:18:21,705]: On one level it’s not surprising [02:18:23,345]: That’s what they do [02:18:23,985]: But on another level it’s shocking [02:18:25,745]: With everything that’s going on in the world right now all the change taking place in our economy and our politics with the wars we’re on the cusp of fighting right now Google has decided you should have less information rather than more [02:18:38,285]: And that is totally wrong [02:18:40,565]: It’s immoral [02:18:41,665]: What can you do about it [02:18:43,345]: Well we could whine about it [02:18:44,925]: That’s a waste of time [02:18:45,805]: We’re not in charge of Google [02:18:47,125]: Or we could find a way around it a way that you could actually get information that is true not intentionally deceptive [02:18:53,425]: The way to do that on YouTube we think is to subscribe to our channel [02:18:57,145]: Subscribe [02:18:57,765]: Hit the little bell icon to be notified when we upload and share this video [02:19:02,185]: That way you’ll have a much higher chance of hearing actual news and information [02:19:07,205]: So we hope that you’ll do thatTranscribe 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