In an era where information is readily accessible, distinguishing fact from fiction has never been more crucial. The recent discussion featured in the Triggernometry episode titled “Israel vs Iran” showcases the nuanced perspectives of Matthew Syed, an accomplished author and journalist known for his insightfulness and analytical depth. As he navigates the complex geopolitical landscape, it’s essential to scrutinize the claims and arguments presented. This blog post will delve into the important fact checks surrounding Syed’s discourse, ensuring that the conversation is anchored in accuracy and clarity. Join us as we unpack the essential truths and misconceptions related to one of the most pressing global conflicts today.

Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts

Transcript:

[00:00:01,600]: So why do I say that the regime in Tehran is not subject to that mutually assured destruction doctrine

[00:00:10,159]: The reason is because they’re religious fanatics and moreover they glorify martyrdom

[00:00:16,319]: I was 10 years old when the Iraq Iran war ignited and a lot of people don’t seem to know about the 20 000 child martyrs who are indoctrinated to walk and sometimes run into minefields and up against machine gun fire to clear a path for the adult military coming in behind

[00:00:38,720]: How is flattening Gaza making Israel more safe when the funders are in Tehran hundreds of miles away

[00:00:45,580]: The most important thing I think for Israel is to isolate Iran the head of the state

[00:00:51,959]: If they’ve got a nuclear weapon it is likely they would use it

[00:00:57,900]: Matthew Said welcome back to Trigonometry

[00:01:00,419]: You were on only a couple of months ago

[00:01:02,419]: We had a great conversation but you since wrote an article in which you talked about the fact that as a friend of Israel you were becoming very concerned that what they were doing in Gaza had gone too far effectively

[00:01:15,019]: We invited you on to talk about that but in the meantime Israel has also attacked Iran

[00:01:20,180]: And then you wrote an article saying basically this is the right thing for Israel to be doing which I imagine is a fairly uncommon position

[00:01:27,959]: People seem to treat Israel and Palestine and other things as kind of like a football match

[00:01:33,419]: You know their team can do no wrong

[00:01:35,220]: The other team can do no good

[00:01:36,739]: But you’ve actually got a nuanced perspective on it

[00:01:38,919]: So it’s great to have you back

[00:01:40,180]: Welcome back

[00:01:41,239]: Thanks for having me

[00:01:41,760]: So break all of that down for us

[00:01:43,180]: You know why did you write the first article

[00:01:44,639]: Why did you write the second one

[00:01:45,559]: We’ll have a good discussion about it

[00:01:46,940]: Well thanks for having me back

[00:01:48,540]: I really enjoyed the last one

[00:01:50,199]: I was shocked at the number of people who came up to me in the weeks after saying that they’d seen it and enjoyed it

[00:01:55,699]: So it’s great to be back

[00:01:57,800]: Let’s perhaps start with Iran which I think it’s worth saying is not a regime that is likely to be subject to the doctrine of nuclear deterrence

[00:02:14,460]: The doctrine of mutually assured destruction is what prevents people with nuclear bombs from initiating a first strike because they worry that in the counter strike they will be eliminated

[00:02:26,419]: So it’s a very strong doctrine that even though there are nuclear weapons in the world we have not yet thankfully been subject to a nuclear holocaust

[00:02:36,419]: And it’s worth saying that even a relatively small nuclear conflict like between Pakistan and India which almost flared up recently would not be localized

[00:02:45,820]: It would lead to a nuclear winter that would affect farming around the world and could kill hundreds of millions

[00:02:52,039]: We don’t think enough about that risk

[00:02:55,020]: So why do I say that the regime in Tehran is not subject to that mutually assured destruction doctrine

[00:03:03,320]: The reason is because they’re religious fanatics

[00:03:05,639]: They believe that they have absolute truth many of them in the regime and that anyone who disagrees with them by implication are infidels

[00:03:14,320]: And moreover they glorify martyrdom

[00:03:17,740]: They believe that if they can take out infidels they will go through a door into heaven and be blessed for eternity

[00:03:24,979]: I might have mentioned in the previous podcast that my father was born as a Shia Muslim

[00:03:31,839]: Most of his family are moderates as are many Muslims around the world but there are a few that are fundamentalists and believed that my father was an apostate and that he deserved to die

[00:03:42,210]: I’ve looked people like this in the eyes and I know that they are implacable

[00:03:47,869]: In those circumstances – in fact one other bit of context if I may briefly

[00:03:51,990]: I was 10 years old when the Iraq Iran war ignited and for obvious reasons I took quite a deep interest in that war

[00:04:00,970]: A lot of people don’t seem to know about the 20 000 child martyrs who were indoctrinated by the fanatics and the clerics who took over after the 1979 revolution to believe that the greatest duty they could perform for Allah was to walk and sometimes run into minefields and up against machine gun fire to clear a path for the adult military coming in behind and they died their limbs strewn across battlefields and they were then glorified in government propaganda held up as icons of the revolution

[00:04:37,470]: Young people – and I’ve got 11 and 12 year old children – are so influenceable impressionable

[00:04:45,410]: The fact that the people who are supposed to protect them indoctrinated them into what is effectively a death cult seems to me very good evidence in addition to all the more contemporaneous stuff – the repression of women the killing of people who are homosexual the funding of genocidal proxies that are committed to the elimination of Israel – tells me that if they got a nuclear weapon it is likely they would use it

[00:05:11,399]: Let’s not forget Ahmadinejad said that Israel was a scourge that should be wiped from the pages of history

[00:05:17,299]: The supreme leader called it a cancer

[00:05:19,440]: And I could envision an aging fanatical leader initiating a first strike and then looking at the radar screen and seeing the inevitable response in which that person would die in thinking I am closer to Allah

[00:05:34,579]: I don’t think that that is true of Vladimir Putin

[00:05:37,940]: I don’t think Putin is prepared to die for his ideology

[00:05:42,540]: He’s a venal corrupt leader of the old school

[00:05:46,040]: He’s worth billions

[00:05:47,579]: He had a Black Sea palace

[00:05:48,779]: He’s got a young girlfriend

[00:05:50,679]: He wants to live

[00:05:51,720]: I think the same is true of the North Korean leader with his harem and his looted opulence

[00:05:59,239]: It is not true of religious fundamentalists who glorify martyrdom

[00:06:03,320]: That’s a long first answer

[00:06:05,320]: But that is why I think even though I have severe reservations about what Israel has done in Gaza – very very severe reservation we can talk about it – I do really want to say that when they operationalize against the regime in Iran not the people of Iran 70 of people in Iran hate the regime

[00:06:24,480]: They’ve been immiserated

[00:06:25,959]: GDP per capita is like 4 000 compared to 50 000 plus in Israel a progressive capitalist free society

[00:06:34,100]: I think right minded people should support them given what we know about uranium enrichment

[00:06:39,959]: Well that’s where I was going to go next because I see a lot of people who haven’t looked into this or perhaps who have making the argument that look this is just another regime change war

[00:06:50,779]: We’ve heard all these arguments before

[00:06:52,380]: This is just like Iraq

[00:06:53,859]: It’s WMD

[00:06:55,600]: They don’t have a nuclear weapon

[00:06:58,019]: This is just Israel using the opportunity to go after somebody they’ve been wanting to go after for a long time

[00:07:04,100]: So what is you know lay out your concerns about the nuclear weapons program

[00:07:10,540]: It’s categorically different

[00:07:12,059]: I opposed the war in Iraq

[00:07:15,899]: I thought Afghanistan was probably a mistake because I don’t think we had a clear idea of what would happen to either of these places after an invasion

[00:07:23,959]: The CIA thought that Iraq would welcome democracy it would become a Jeffersonian liberal state

[00:07:29,799]: Not realizing the deep clan divisions in Iraq would almost certainly lead to civil war notwithstanding the Sunni Shia divisions

[00:07:38,660]: So I can understand why people are concerned as am I and probably you about what might happen if the regime falls in Iran

[00:07:48,359]: However the counterfactual here is nuclear weapons potentially nine or ten nuclear devices being held by a millenarian cult that is committed to the destruction of Israel and calls America the great Satan

[00:08:07,739]: Remember what I said earlier a nuclear war of that kind even if it occurred between Israel and Iran would kill hundreds of millions of people around the world

[00:08:18,359]: It’s why I find the American first doctrine sensible doctrine in many ways but you have intricate global supply chains around the world which furnishes America with all of the material wealth that they’ve grown accustomed to

[00:08:31,279]: They’re not isolated from what will happen there

[00:08:35,159]: Neither are they from what’s happening in Ukraine

[00:08:37,039]: But a nuclear war would be catastrophic

[00:08:40,599]: And so in those circumstances I do think that this is different

[00:08:45,820]: It’s an order of magnitude two orders of magnitude different to either Iraq or Afghanistan

[00:08:51,719]: But what’s the evidence is what people will say because if it’s just Benjamin Netanyahu saying they’re close to getting nuclear weapons that’s not persuasive to a lot of people

[00:09:00,140]: Well you will have read I think probably the International Atomic Energy Authority

[00:09:03,280]: I’m just getting you to say it

[00:09:04,260]: No sure sure

[00:09:04,979]: I can see I can see

[00:09:06,219]: I’m doing all the work

[00:09:07,260]: But this is I did read it in full

[00:09:09,900]: It’s a 20 odd page document

[00:09:11,719]: And you will know that these are effectively civil servants who are paid to inspect and offer a point of view

[00:09:20,179]: And obviously they have incentives too do they not

[00:09:22,780]: They don’t want to miss Iran’s building of a nuclear weapon and then be blamed in the future for one of the great calamities to have befallen the Earth

[00:09:30,679]: Neither do they want to be if we do invade and they haven’t got quite as close as we had thought with the WMD in Iraq they don’t want to be held responsible for that

[00:09:38,280]: So I think you read it in full think about what their incentives are and then try and get a sense of what they’re really trying to say

[00:09:44,619]: And I invite anyone to read it because I think they’ll come to the same conclusion that I did which is that Iran they say explicitly are in breach of their obligations and non nuclear proliferation that they have been deceiving and dissembling for a very long time and that they can’t account for some of the enriched uranium that they think Iran has made

[00:10:05,559]: I think what they’re telling us is that Iran this is a big complex country with complex terrain

[00:10:11,539]: I think what they’re saying is they can’t discount the possibility that they’re reasonably close

[00:10:16,700]: How we define imminent is probably quite difficult

[00:10:19,539]: But in those circumstances I can certainly see why Israel with the air defenses down with what they’ve done with Hezbollah taking this opportunity to try and get rid of that threat once and for all

[00:10:31,559]: Matthew there is a clip that is during the rounds of Tulsi Gabbard who’s head of national security under the Trump administration on the 25th of March addressing the Senate saying that Iran did not have nuclear weapons

[00:10:46,739]: The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003

[00:10:56,859]: The IC continues to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program

[00:11:03,940]: And there’ll be a lot of people going well that’s somebody incredibly high up under the Trump administration saying that

[00:11:11,500]: What’s going on there

[00:11:12,719]: Yeah I did see

[00:11:13,760]: I did see that

[00:11:14,559]: But the evidence may have changed between then and now

[00:11:18,140]: It’s a very fast moving situation

[00:11:22,659]: I suspect what has happened is that Israel say they have intelligence

[00:11:26,900]: I mean viewers will say well you know they would say that

[00:11:29,799]: But remember this is an independent group of people

[00:11:32,520]: And as I say they have incentives so it must be very difficult to write those reports

[00:11:37,359]: Because what I’ve noticed over the last 48 hours is those who don’t want there to be conflict are taking out sentences and those who think there should be I think read it as a whole and get a sense

[00:11:46,059]: And then weigh that up against what it would mean if this fanatical group got hold of the weapons

[00:11:52,780]: And then I think the logic of what Israel is doing makes perfect sense

[00:11:56,719]: Because I think another thing that people don’t really understand is the Gaza situation is obviously tragic and awful but it’s a glorified proxy war

[00:12:05,460]: That is a war between effectively Iran and Israel

[00:12:09,400]: It’s just Iran are funding Hamas and they’re funding Hezbollah as well and Lebanon in order to create this situation

[00:12:15,700]: So it could be argued that this is Israel just simply going to the source of the conflict

[00:12:21,500]: I mean this is one of the great ironies of the Middle East is that Iran has assembled a whole range of proxies and its interest is in Israel fighting with them because that diminishes Israel’s strength

[00:12:37,039]: It’s very expensive the Iron Dome

[00:12:38,700]: You know when they shoot down rockets it costs tens of thousands

[00:12:41,619]: A rocket that’s being fired in only a few hundred dollars

[00:12:45,460]: And so it’s very asymmetric in terms of the financial ramifications for the two parties

[00:12:49,900]: And by outsourcing all of this to the proxies they don’t care about the lives being lost in these proxies

[00:12:54,700]: They don’t care about innocent lives

[00:12:56,440]: And I feel to go to Constantine’s very legitimate question that Israel was playing into the hands of Iran after the October 7th atrocity by flattening Gaza and alienating global public opinion in a way that has really shattered Israel’s reputation into a million pieces

[00:13:17,140]: Do you mind if we park that and just stick with Iran for now

[00:13:19,280]: I really want to have that conversation but fully rather

[00:13:21,880]: So let’s stick with Israel just for the moment

[00:13:23,400]: We’ll come back to it I promise you

[00:13:26,440]: So the question was always going to be this situation was fundamentally unsustainable

[00:13:33,820]: It’s unsustainable to have Iran and Israel in close proximity because Iran was going to do whatever it could in order to destabilize Israel

[00:13:44,580]: And that was not going that couldn’t carry on long term

[00:13:48,239]: So something was always going to happen if we’re being brutally honest about the situation

[00:13:52,960]: That’s right

[00:13:53,359]: That’s right

[00:13:54,380]: And there were two ways well three ways this could have been resolved

[00:13:58,400]: One Naftali Bennett forgive me the former Israeli prime minister

[00:14:03,659]: I met a few former PMs whilst in Israel in February

[00:14:07,280]: I think he was probably the most impressive of the lot

[00:14:10,739]: His doctrine was you have to go after the he called it the head of the octopus

[00:14:14,900]: You have all these tentacles around the Middle East and we’re going after the tips of the tentacles

[00:14:19,919]: It’s doing nothing

[00:14:20,979]: And the source of the problem is still in play

[00:14:24,559]: And he and Barak and Olmer all of them looked at the possibility of bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities

[00:14:30,559]: But they’re very deep underground

[00:14:31,960]: They’re worried about the ramifications of the Middle East and the relationship with America which obviously is the ultimate guarantor of Israel’s security

[00:14:40,690]: And they rejected it

[00:14:42,760]: Bennett argued that I don’t think the analogy quite works but I’ll tell you what he said that during the Cold War there were a number of proxy conflicts between the Soviet Union and the United States

[00:14:54,369]: But the United States was very sophisticated in fermenting those elements in the Warsaw Pact countries that were anti the regime in Poland Czechoslovakia and beyond

[00:15:08,619]: And this gradually weakened the core of the Soviet Union

[00:15:13,580]: And he said that there are lots of covert things that could have been done to undermine the Iranian regime

[00:15:19,380]: So for example they turned the internet off when there were protests against the regime

[00:15:24,119]: And that obviously takes away a lot of the fuel for agitation

[00:15:28,640]: He said we can go in there and get Starlink and get it up so that people can do it

[00:15:33,400]: And he had a whole range of other mechanisms that could covertly and relatively inexpensively go after the regime and that it might then fall

[00:15:42,219]: The other way of course is what Netanyahu is doing which is actually going after them with a full frontal assault

[00:15:49,460]: And the other is the status quo where you hope that at the time it’s the Iran nuclear deal would deter them from going to higher levels of enrichment

[00:16:00,479]: But you’re right

[00:16:02,739]: Two of those are not optimal

[00:16:05,159]: In fact all of them are suboptimal

[00:16:07,520]: But in the real world you have to take the best of the bad options

[00:16:10,359]: And before we move on I guess Well I have some more about this

[00:16:13,500]: But you carry on

[00:16:14,280]: Yeah

[00:16:14,640]: Before we move on I think it’s worth asking as well how fragile is the Iranian regime

[00:16:19,940]: Because it always appears to the outside layman that these regimes are strong and powerful and then literally overnight they tend to fall

[00:16:29,219]: Is that a possibility with the Iranian regime or is their stranglehold on power simply too strong

[00:16:34,539]: It’s a very interesting question

[00:16:37,539]: One thing that has struck me about Western foreign policy in the post war era and we may have discussed this when we briefly debated the concept of diversity is that the analysts were too monolithic

[00:16:52,900]: They were almost all white middle class Ivy League and Oxbridge graduates trying to make sense of nations of which they really had no idea particularly the tribal and clan dynamics

[00:17:05,400]: So Iran forgive me Iraq a classic example Afghanistan they had no idea that you’ve got the Pashtuns the Tajiks and the Uzbeks who’d been fighting for hundreds if not thousands of years

[00:17:17,439]: The animosity is absolutely vast there

[00:17:19,239]: The Taliban were effectively a Pashtun organization and that’s why they recruited so many Pashtuns to what they were saying because they could go after the Uzbeks and the Tajiks

[00:17:27,579]: We didn’t see any of that

[00:17:29,319]: We thought the Taliban would fall and we’ll be OK

[00:17:32,459]: With Iran as it happens I’ve spent the last 48 hours trying to drill down into the structure of Iranian society

[00:17:39,680]: I don’t think there’s enough evidence out there and I’ve not heard enough

[00:17:43,219]: We do know about the ethnic dimensions

[00:17:45,780]: We know that there are ethnic minorities

[00:17:47,339]: I think it’s about 70 Persian and there are other ethnic groups there

[00:17:52,400]: But the clan structures and some of the other things I think are worth thinking about

[00:17:56,260]: On the regime itself polling which I think is reasonably credible says that 70 of the people disapprove

[00:18:03,420]: I think a lot of them absolutely detest the regime

[00:18:06,739]: Think about it

[00:18:07,339]: This is a resource rich society with an ancient history extraordinary civilization

[00:18:16,699]: And I think I mentioned earlier GDP per capita is 4 000

[00:18:21,329]: That is shocking

[00:18:22,471]: And part of the reason for that of course is the sanctions

[00:18:26,131]: They’d much rather have sanctions than continue going for nuclear enrichment because they’re fanatics these people

[00:18:31,591]: So I suspect it might be brittle

[00:18:34,291]: But there is a second order question of what replaces the power vacuum

[00:18:38,511]: And we tend I think in the West to be optimistic that something will replace it that will be pluralistic and enlightened

[00:18:48,231]: And it hasn’t always turned out that way

[00:18:50,351]: And I want to read much more deeply

[00:18:52,491]: I would recommend you bring on somebody who is really deeply immersed in the social and ethnic structure of Iranian society

[00:19:01,671]: That was what was missing in the Afghani and Iraqi invasions

[00:19:06,211]: Well we had Ali Ansari on who was very good on that very thing to talk about when there was the potential for revolution in Iran a while back if you might remember

[00:19:15,031]: So people can go and watch that

[00:19:17,151]: If you’re someone who values free inquiry and independent thinking which let’s be honest is why you’re probably watching Trigonometry then our sponsor Venice AI is the tool for you

[00:19:27,751]: Here’s a hot take

[00:19:29,071]: AI is exploding right now

[00:19:30,851]: But seriously most of the tools out there are just clones with slightly different skins

[00:19:35,871]: Venice AI is different

[00:19:37,711]: It offers uncensored AI chat images and coding

[00:19:40,831]: Why should a team of programmers at these leading AI apps be the ones who get to decide what is and isn’t OK for you to think

[00:19:47,411]: Whether you’re researching topics that make other platforms nervous or you’re just sick of being told what you can and can’t ask Venice gives you the freedom to explore without limits

[00:19:56,751]: No political filtering

[00:19:58,151]: No condescending footnotes

[00:19:59,691]: Just powerful AI

[00:20:01,411]: Fast

[00:20:01,931]: We’ve tried it ourselves

[00:20:03,231]: And if you’re someone who thinks about these things you’ll notice the difference immediately

[00:20:07,211]: If you want to use AI without fear of handing over your thoughts ideas or personal information to a corporation or the government you can get 20 off a pro plan using our link venice ai trigger

[00:20:19,731]: You’ll find the link in the description of this episode or type it in venice ai trigger and see what you’ve been missing

[00:20:28,891]: And now back to the show

[00:20:31,811]: I certainly would not consider myself an expert on this issue or the region at all

[00:20:35,871]: But logically as I’m hearing everything you’re saying it all makes perfect sense

[00:20:40,131]: And what Francis is saying et cetera

[00:20:42,131]: But that is the worry because you could say well look the regime of fanatics yes they’re enriching uranium

[00:20:49,251]: They’ve got 400 kilograms of uranium at 60

[00:20:52,611]: And they’re using 20 to make the 60

[00:20:55,291]: That’s very worrying

[00:20:57,091]: And they’ve got an active ballistic missile program which is how you deliver the nuclear weapons if you ever build them

[00:21:02,371]: Like I get all that

[00:21:03,571]: They’re fanatics

[00:21:06,931]: But what happens when you get rid of them

[00:21:09,311]: And this is where perhaps again as you say people who know more about this would be able to weigh in

[00:21:15,231]: Perhaps the difference is with previous conflicts that the Iranians had a period an extended period of time when actually it was free

[00:21:25,651]: It was fairly liberal certainly by the standards of the region under the Shah for 20 24 25 26 years maybe from I think 53 to 79

[00:21:35,631]: So Iranian women are so horrified by the impositions of the moral police on them now because they have no freedom

[00:21:45,091]: But that is a worry because if you ask me should Israel or should we as the West destroy their nuclear weapons program it sounds pretty reasonable to me

[00:21:55,531]: But once you start getting into a regime change then you’re getting into second third fourth order consequences that I don’t think we know a lot about

[00:22:04,191]: But it will be much less bad than both the nuclear war that could and probably would happen if they got nuclear weapons

[00:22:10,991]: But the other thing that’s crucial and I should have mentioned earlier is it would lead to instant proliferation

[00:22:16,851]: There is no way that Saudi Arabia would not build a nuclear program

[00:22:22,371]: It would then proliferate across the Middle East and the wider world

[00:22:26,291]: It’s difficult to exaggerate the existential risk to the whole species if that happens

[00:22:31,951]: I talked about a local nuclear war

[00:22:33,391]: If that widens the nuclear winter could wipe us all out

[00:22:36,311]: We would not recover

[00:22:38,211]: And it’s not just the billions of people who would die now that would be affected by that but the future human beings our children’s children’s children going through future history who will not get a chance to experience the gift of life

[00:22:53,231]: We must be aware of existential risk

[00:22:57,511]: And nuclear proliferation would almost certainly be a powder keg that we would never withstand probably not for a decade

[00:23:04,691]: Look at the flow between India and Pakistan

[00:23:07,391]: Imagine if that was all across the Middle East

[00:23:11,791]: Pakistan and India they got there

[00:23:13,771]: Israel has got there

[00:23:14,731]: I regret that

[00:23:16,471]: It would have been better had the technology not been invented in some ways because these are all dual use

[00:23:22,191]: Nuclear fission is fantastic as an energy source and we need it

[00:23:25,271]: And we’re crazy not to have built more nuclear fission power stations

[00:23:29,311]: Fusion will be even more of a game changer if we ever get there

[00:23:31,811]: And I think probably we will

[00:23:33,171]: Energy is the source of all prosperity and life of course

[00:23:38,511]: But it can be used for devastating effect too

[00:23:41,171]: And the more countries that get it the more jurisdictions the more fingers on buttons the more chances of misunderstandings

[00:23:47,791]: Cuba almost flared up

[00:23:49,011]: We know of examples where Boris Yeltsin was clutching a briefcase looking at a screen where a blip is coming across

[00:23:55,931]: They think is this a nuclear strike

[00:23:57,431]: It turned out to be a Norwegian rocket going up to the North Pole

[00:24:01,091]: But he was being urged

[00:24:02,931]: We know about a submarine a Russian submarine where they were going to operationalize a nuclear weapon

[00:24:08,411]: These scope for misunderstandings

[00:24:10,931]: I asked one expert

[00:24:12,031]: He put it about 0 5 per year risk of something happening that was an accident rather than purposeful nuclear war

[00:24:20,471]: But over time that tends to 100

[00:24:23,151]: You have 20 30 countries with nuclear weapons

[00:24:25,551]: It’s over

[00:24:26,591]: So please don’t think of this in the same terms as the Iraq war

[00:24:29,411]: Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction would not have done it

[00:24:32,091]: This is a systemic risk to the whole of humanity

[00:24:36,971]: What do you say

[00:24:38,311]: Look as I say everything you’re saying makes sense

[00:24:40,511]: But I’m stress testing the argument for myself and for our viewers

[00:24:44,131]: What do you say to people who I hear a lot of like if you open Twitter a lot of people are banging on about World War III

[00:24:49,871]: I don’t really know what they mean because Russia is pulled back from Iran

[00:24:53,771]: China doesn’t seem to be particularly supportive

[00:24:56,611]: The Middle Eastern countries secretly all are very happy that this nuclear program is being destroyed in this way

[00:25:04,651]: But do you see the potential for like serious escalation out of what’s happening

[00:25:09,171]: Well it’s a very interesting question

[00:25:10,851]: The most interesting of all which is how this fits into the major confrontation of our time and our children’s time which is American primacy being challenged by communist China

[00:25:24,451]: Now China is at the absolute center of this axis of autocratic states with North Korea Iran and Russia

[00:25:35,591]: They’ve been sharing military technology nuclear technology drone production

[00:25:42,831]: China buys 97 of Iranian oil absolutely crucial for China still now even though it’s building a lot of nuclear power stations

[00:25:52,391]: And I like you have been struck by Russia offering words that they will help to mediate and other things of that kind

[00:26:01,611]: But Iran really backed Russia in the Ukraine war with drone production and other things

[00:26:07,791]: And they cut them loose

[00:26:08,751]: Russia’s basically cut them loose and said you’re on your own effectively

[00:26:11,731]: I wonder whether they’ve cut them loose

[00:26:14,691]: That’s one possibility

[00:26:15,951]: The other is that the military constraints of Russia are such that they are so required for the front line in Ukraine that they don’t have spare capacity to divert to Iran

[00:26:29,591]: That’s another possibility

[00:26:31,091]: I did see a report last week that China had provided a very large batch of chemicals to Iran that helps to transport the ballistic missiles

[00:26:40,531]: The question is to what extent is Xi Jinping a gambler at this point

[00:26:45,791]: There are clearly two major confrontations happening in the world at the moment in Europe and in the Middle East

[00:26:52,971]: And it is possible in the coming years possibly even in the coming months that Xi Jinping will think this is the opportunity to blockade Taiwan

[00:27:03,291]: Now this is the fundamental nexus of I think what will determine the geopolitics of our lifetime

[00:27:11,571]: Taiwan is crucial of course in the production of advanced semiconductors

[00:27:15,971]: Much of the future is going to be determined by these technologies

[00:27:18,531]: You’re probably aware that China is extremely close to America in this regard

[00:27:23,231]: It’s fascinating

[00:27:24,751]: I just saw the Nature Index of the top universities by production of high quality output research

[00:27:32,491]: America is to dominate that list

[00:27:34,471]: Harvard is number one

[00:27:35,911]: Nine of the other top ten are Chinese universities

[00:27:40,571]: What’s the AI LLM

[00:27:43,211]: It’s Deep Seek not far off chat GBT 4 and some of the others that are coming out

[00:27:49,771]: So I think this is a very fundamental question

[00:27:52,591]: And for me and let’s just widen the aperture here because what I think is worrying some of the more sophisticated America versed strategists is to the extent that America gets involved even more deeply involved in say hypothetically in Ukraine and in the Middle East do they have the capacity to fight on three fronts in three theaters

[00:28:16,651]: Remember the Second World War was a number of different wars happening in parallel and it became a world war

[00:28:24,051]: I do think that pattern could reemerge here

[00:28:27,731]: It’s not to me impossible

[00:28:30,571]: This is probably the most important thing of all I think for us to understand is the real constraint on America and Europe and the free world isn’t as people say it’s our military capacity

[00:28:44,431]: We don’t have enough munitions

[00:28:45,611]: We don’t have enough warships

[00:28:49,331]: We don’t have enough… Although to be fair we don’t

[00:28:51,691]: We don’t

[00:28:52,191]: Yeah but let’s try and drill down

[00:28:54,431]: Why don’t we

[00:28:55,451]: Why don’t we

[00:28:56,271]: And the reason is we are not willing to take a hit to our standard of living to invest sufficiently in defense

[00:29:07,211]: In fact it’s worse than that

[00:29:08,871]: What we are actually doing in order to invest in defense and these are small amounts

[00:29:13,571]: You will have seen Keir Starmer some nondescript committal at 3 in the future 2 3 to 2 5

[00:29:19,251]: It’s woefully low

[00:29:21,331]: Considering where we are in the world at the moment the threats that we face we’re actually borrowing ever more and therefore pushing the problem to future generations to fund our current lifestyle because we’re not prepared to do it ourselves

[00:29:35,411]: Now that’s been happening for many years

[00:29:37,331]: And Donald Trump is not a solution to this

[00:29:39,871]: I’m not a fan of Elon Musk in many ways

[00:29:43,211]: I don’t like his support for some of the far right parties to the right of me certainly

[00:29:47,771]: I don’t like the language that some of those parties use

[00:29:50,851]: But he was absolutely right to describe the Big Beautiful Bill as a disgusting abomination because it will add trillions to an already enormous debt

[00:29:59,571]: That is what is eating us alive and will make it difficult to win a war which we want to win because we want to defend Western civilized values

[00:30:07,411]: And there’s also another part of it that hasn’t been addressed which is how many young people in this country and America are going to go out and fight for their nations

[00:30:16,631]: That’s a very interesting question

[00:30:18,371]: Now I think there are two ways to think about that

[00:30:21,531]: So I wonder if that’s related to the debt

[00:30:24,351]: But let’s ignore that for a second

[00:30:26,691]: The polling is not good for the West

[00:30:29,851]: And I think the reason for this is something that you’re really interested in

[00:30:34,011]: And I think it’s not that I’ve come to it late

[00:30:36,371]: I’ve written about it for years but I hadn’t realized how deep it was just how anti Western academic institutions have become

[00:30:44,151]: The march through the institutions the extraordinary loathing for the history of America and the UK

[00:30:53,051]: We’re racists we’re colonialists

[00:30:55,571]: We only got rich by oppressing other people

[00:30:57,691]: It is in my view a completely bizarre and grotesque distortion of what actually happened in history

[00:31:04,411]: You’re not going to defend what you don’t love

[00:31:07,011]: Yeah but however did you notice in Ukraine a lot of people said they’re not going to

[00:31:11,591]: No they’re not

[00:31:12,251]: This is a nation with massive corruption which it has very high levels of corruption according to the Transparency International Index

[00:31:21,051]: There wasn’t going to be a cohesion

[00:31:22,411]: Putin didn’t think that people would be prepared to fight

[00:31:24,891]: And then when the invasion happened there was a huge mobilization voluntary mobilization of people willing to fight

[00:31:31,911]: Just before the Second World War I think there was

[00:31:34,491]: Forgive me for interrupting again

[00:31:35,931]: That’s a much better argument

[00:31:37,251]: And the reason why you’re about the one you’re about to make because Ukraine is very different

[00:31:40,491]: Ukraine doesn’t have this history of self flagellation about some past

[00:31:46,191]: Ukrainians love their country

[00:31:47,551]: And I know people who literally when the war happened they drove their wife and kids to the border said goodbye and went back and signed up

[00:31:55,811]: But they haven’t had that history of demoralization

[00:31:59,271]: The argument you’re about to make which is the Oxford Union voted that they wouldn’t fight for king and country just before the Second World War

[00:32:06,411]: That’s a much better argument

[00:32:07,631]: And it changed didn’t it

[00:32:08,591]: Yeah

[00:32:08,891]: On a sixpence once they saw the existential threat

[00:32:12,211]: And I’m kind of an optimist at heart but I don’t want to sound kind of Panglossian or unrealistic

[00:32:16,891]: I think it is not impossible that when it came to the crunch people would suddenly wake up to the extraordinary blessings we have in this country

[00:32:25,771]: You’re both from immigrant families as am I

[00:32:29,891]: I often bump into the children of immigrants who absolutely love this country because they have a much more visceral understanding of what it might be like to grow up in a country which is tribally divided doesn’t have a coherent national identity doesn’t have free speech

[00:32:47,831]: We can sit here and criticize our government

[00:32:50,271]: We can start businesses

[00:32:52,031]: The freedom is magnificent

[00:32:54,111]: I’ve had such a great life here

[00:32:56,031]: And my children have just an unbelievable life

[00:32:58,691]: You think about the history of our species and deaths and injuries and war and violence and disease

[00:33:06,571]: What we have now with extraordinary vaccinations and technology

[00:33:10,311]: Maybe we’ve got too sophisticated

[00:33:12,151]: Maybe we’re not capable of controlling the power we’ve unleashed

[00:33:15,311]: The great E O

[00:33:15,991]: Wilson said the polymath

[00:33:19,371]: He was actually somebody who was a biologist by background very interested in ants which were a very interesting species of course because they’re a social insect

[00:33:27,911]: And it has some very interesting I think metaphorical significance for humans who are also very social

[00:33:34,651]: But he said we have paleolithic emotions medieval institutions but God like technology

[00:33:43,271]: And it’s reaching a point of crisis

[00:33:45,271]: At the moment we’re seeing some of these flare ups

[00:33:47,951]: Who knows what A I

[00:33:49,151]: will eventually do as a dual use technology even if it doesn’t itself turn on us which I think is not completely impossible

[00:33:56,351]: But we’re now living at the noontide of history

[00:33:59,971]: And I do think and I do hope that podcasts like this it’s an important part of the collateral that we have in this country to get across to young people that this is something worth fighting for

[00:34:11,531]: The blessings that we have the peace that we’ve enjoyed for so long

[00:34:16,311]: But we need to deter war and we need to spend on our defense to do so

[00:34:20,771]: And if it does come in extremists we need to be able to fight

[00:34:23,651]: And it means us changing our ideology because we’ve been very individualistic

[00:34:28,731]: It’s been all about the self

[00:34:30,251]: What can I do

[00:34:31,171]: What is important for me

[00:34:33,971]: And people criticize young people and you can point the finger

[00:34:38,011]: But why have they turned out the way they have

[00:34:40,531]: That is our fault collectively as a society

[00:34:43,371]: And it’s going to take a hell of a reframe to get people to look at the world in another way

[00:34:48,731]: But you know it’s interesting that

[00:34:50,031]: I agree that perhaps individualism is sort of shaded into hyper individualism

[00:34:55,211]: But you might be interested in this

[00:34:56,971]: Where do you think the highest rate of voluntary blood donations are in the world

[00:35:02,811]: The US

[00:35:03,751]: The West

[00:35:04,391]: Yeah

[00:35:04,871]: And do you know why

[00:35:06,071]: Because yes there’s individualism

[00:35:08,991]: And in a way that’s been a really positive thing that we individuals have rights and aspirations that are more important than what a patriot might say or a Klan member

[00:35:18,371]: Clans are so oppressive

[00:35:20,431]: You have to do what the patriarch says

[00:35:22,491]: Marry who they tell you to marry

[00:35:24,231]: Marriages are arranged

[00:35:25,011]: There’s no freedom

[00:35:26,531]: Individualism was breaking out of the constraints of tribal societies

[00:35:29,911]: But what it enabled us to do is create true national identities

[00:35:33,671]: Much bigger sense of solidarity

[00:35:37,011]: So that yeah I’m prepared to give my blood to a stranger that I’ve never met

[00:35:40,311]: That doesn’t happen in tribal societies

[00:35:42,071]: They will only give it to people within their own clan

[00:35:44,231]: They wouldn’t want it from the blood of another clan

[00:35:46,411]: It comes back to our discussion of cousin marriage

[00:35:49,611]: That’s what it’s really about

[00:35:51,591]: Well to the extent that cousin marriage is a proxy for very small allegiances

[00:35:57,851]: So individualism there’s no individualism in these clan societies

[00:36:01,151]: It’s all about the clan

[00:36:02,531]: But they’re willing to extort a bribe from you outside the clan to share with their group

[00:36:06,991]: They’re willing to give jobs only to people in the group

[00:36:08,891]: Nepotism corruption all flares

[00:36:11,411]: Don’t volunteer blood

[00:36:13,171]: United Nations it was interesting

[00:36:15,271]: Those countries that violate the diplomats get immunity from having to pay parking ticket fines

[00:36:21,471]: Those countries from clan societies just park where they wanted abuse the society they’re living in

[00:36:25,651]: So they said you know why would I want to spend for anybody else

[00:36:28,631]: Can you see

[00:36:29,931]: I like to think of individualism as a breaking out of certain constraints that enable us to create a much larger sense of social solidarity that has benefited us enormously but perhaps went too far

[00:36:41,495]: and also has been undermined by we ourselves trying to undermine our sense of national pride

[00:36:50,175]: That to me is one of the great tragedies of my lifetime and I hadn’t realised that’s what I meant earlier how insidious it’s been

[00:36:57,715]: I mean isn’t it extraordinary

[00:36:59,715]: I got my daughter’s reading list for history from her school last week for the next academic year

[00:37:06,795]: The reason I did that by the way is because I haven’t taken enough interest in what she’s learning at school

[00:37:11,115]: I suddenly thought hang on a second what do you think the main topic is next year

[00:37:14,895]: Slavery and colonialism

[00:37:15,855]: And I want her to make her own mind up but I want to at least give her the option of not thinking that we were uniquely slavers and to understand that it was the UK that really fought hard to

[00:37:28,355]: I’ve got a book you can get her

[00:37:29,855]: Go on you’ve written on this

[00:37:31,915]: An Immigrant’s Love Letter to the West

[00:37:33,235]: By a certain Constantine

[00:37:34,695]: There’s a whole chapter about slavery

[00:37:36,075]: OK great

[00:37:37,095]: Excellent

[00:37:38,295]: Anyway

[00:37:38,955]: Would it work for

[00:37:40,595]: she’s 12

[00:37:40,975]: Yeah it’s written for someone

[00:37:43,415]: There’s a lot of swearing in it but apart from that

[00:37:45,235]: It’s good for a 12 year old

[00:37:48,255]: There’s not a lot of swearing but there’s some

[00:37:50,235]: Look there’s far too much agreement

[00:37:51,735]: We’ve kind of coalesced around stuff that we all agree on

[00:37:54,395]: Let’s come back to the article I mentioned right at the beginning which is Gaza where I suspect we may in stress testing what you’re saying there may be a bit more frisson so to speak

[00:38:04,495]: So make the case that Israel has gone too far doing the wrong thing etc

[00:38:11,235]: So there’s no doubt Israel had to respond to the October 7th atrocity

[00:38:17,995]: But I think that what Iran was seeking to achieve with that attack through its proxy Hamas and the crimes that they committed that were heinous and in a sense I don’t want to diminish it provocative

[00:38:35,675]: They were trying to goad Israel into an overreaction

[00:38:39,835]: Therefore to flatten Gaza to kill many thousands of innocent people because Hamas of course embed their infrastructure in civilian populations and by implication to lose what is crucial for Israel which is if you like again I don’t want to make this sound superficial but the brand of Israel which is a liberal democracy in the Middle East that has grown and developed despite the genocidal ambitions of countries around it survived wars Six Day War Yom Kippur War

[00:39:16,995]: And that sits often unconsciously behind Western support

[00:39:21,755]: We talked about how there’s a lot of anti Semitism in the universities but the main body of Western opinion is behind as well has been for a long time

[00:39:29,675]: I’ll caveat that

[00:39:31,275]: Amongst a certain group amongst young people you can see the polls for yourselves

[00:39:36,615]: They’re very very pro Palestine

[00:39:38,275]: I think he means pre Palestine

[00:39:40,235]: But if you look at the post October 7th polling in America all demographics except for the very young one was pro Israel

[00:39:48,435]: But if you took the totality it was extremely pro Israel

[00:39:51,995]: And that obviously influences American foreign policy

[00:39:55,055]: And Israel wouldn’t exist without American support

[00:39:59,735]: And I think the Israeli forgive me the Iranian tactic worked

[00:40:03,235]: Because now you look at polling and this isn’t my opinion it has objectively been shattered

[00:40:09,635]: And the image of Israel has been shattered

[00:40:12,455]: And I think part of this is because of what they have done in Gaza

[00:40:16,715]: And part of it a slightly smaller part is the sense that the administration there Netanyahu is a right wing quite populist leader who wants to cling on to power and is kept in power by right wing nationalist religious fanatics in Smotrych and Ben Gavir

[00:40:36,235]: And I think a lot of people who are pro Israel suppress some of the doubts about Netanyahu and the coalition because of how awful it was on October 7th and they supported understandably had a sense of national pride and now think well hang on a second we are effectively legitimating war crimes

[00:40:53,215]: This may well come out in the future

[00:40:55,535]: Independent people will describe what’s happened in Gaza as war crimes

[00:40:58,535]: What are you talking about when you say war crimes specifically

[00:41:00,975]: What do you mean

[00:41:02,355]: Being sleep deprived messes with everything

[00:41:04,755]: Reaction time memory decision making even your emotions

[00:41:09,015]: It’s like walking around legally drunk and the long term effects

[00:41:13,115]: Just as bad as smoking

[00:41:14,635]: Most people reach for melatonin but here’s the problem

[00:41:18,595]: Melatonin is a hormone and most supplements give you doses 10 to 50 times higher than your body naturally produces

[00:41:25,935]: That’s why you wake up groggy your sleep gets worse over time and your body stops making melatonin on its own

[00:41:32,535]: That’s why I use Evening Being by Verso

[00:41:36,615]: It’s melatonin free using clinically studied ingredients to help you fall asleep faster stay asleep longer and get more deep end REM sleep without messing with your hormones

[00:41:48,275]: I’ve been taking it myself and honestly I’m falling asleep faster and my mind actually switches off at night which used to be a battle

[00:41:56,335]: Shut it of course it did

[00:41:57,775]: Head to VER SO and use code TRIGGER to get 15 off your first order or click the link in the description

[00:42:08,155]: That’s VER SO code TRIGGER

[00:42:13,415]: The use of starvation is a tactic of war

[00:42:21,575]: It’s not indiscriminate bombing but the bombing campaign that has taken place that has killed thousands of people not all of them innocent many of these are terrorists

[00:42:34,735]: I worry as somebody who’s instinctively pro Israel that the next generation of American leaders will grow up you mentioned how public opinion in that demographic even after October 7th and before the bombing campaign was already more pro Israel the images in their minds when they think of Israel will not be the Holocaust as it is perhaps for our generation who learned about the Second World War

[00:42:57,475]: It will be emaciated Palestinian children people queuing up for food being gunned down

[00:43:03,675]: Israel have lied I think it’s fair to say from time to time

[00:43:07,695]: Don’t ask me for the exact examples

[00:43:10,075]: I have to

[00:43:13,855]: Not to catch you out

[00:43:16,855]: We’re covering a lot of terrain here

[00:43:19,035]: I’m sure you have a very good reason for saying that but I’d like to know what that is

[00:43:23,475]: I’ll come back to you

[00:43:33,535]: The long term effect of this is going to be very negative

[00:43:37,095]: I agree with you completely but the question that instinctively you then have to ask is what do you think Israel should have done instead

[00:43:45,955]: What I think Iran most feared is a Middle East where Israel had already signed the Abraham Accords

[00:43:54,335]: There was a growing rapprochement a growing accord between Israel and the Sunni world

[00:44:00,255]: Saudi Arabia at a rate of knots faster than I anticipated is modernising

[00:44:07,035]: The leader there MBS is very keen on stability in the region because he wants to see economic growth diversify from fossil fuels

[00:44:17,115]: I think what Iran most feared was an accommodation between Israel and Saudi Arabia leading to the very significant isolation of Iran

[00:44:26,815]: Let me invite you to consider a counterfactual

[00:44:29,995]: Let’s say Israel had responded in a more limited fashion to the October 7th atrocity

[00:44:37,555]: Meaning what

[00:44:39,395]: If we say what they’ve done so far let’s say 20

[00:44:43,795]: So that most people in the world would have said that was completely justified

[00:44:48,095]: So quite a few people who were responsible for October 7th would still be alive quite a few hostages would still be in the dungeons but there would be a lot less destruction in Gaza

[00:44:59,155]: It wouldn’t necessarily have had more hostages

[00:45:02,715]: They may have been able to negotiate their release

[00:45:05,755]: That’s quite a claim

[00:45:07,295]: They would have had to have released many more prisoners from the other side

[00:45:15,155]: Most of the hostage families don’t approve of the attack

[00:45:18,275]: I’m not arguing at this point

[00:45:19,695]: I’m just trying to map the picture that you’re painting onto my head and everyone watching

[00:45:24,735]: So Israel does a fifth of the destruction exchanges thousands of the Palestinians that it holds in its jails many of whom are accused of attacking Israeli soldiers terrorism etc in exchange for getting more hostages out

[00:45:42,095]: Statistically speaking quite a lot of the people the Sinoirs and all of these other people quite a lot of them are still alive

[00:45:49,075]: That’s right

[00:45:52,355]: That is obviously not optimal

[00:45:54,635]: It’s not a great situation to be in

[00:45:57,155]: As I said right at the beginning you often have to choose between very difficult bad options

[00:46:02,575]: The most important thing I think for Israel is to isolate Iran the head of the snake

[00:46:10,295]: Remember I wrote this column before the attack

[00:46:14,375]: Think in your mind

[00:46:16,435]: They moved towards an accord with Saudi Arabia

[00:46:19,355]: I think this was if not imminent something that could have happened in a reasonable time frame

[00:46:26,315]: They already have the Abraham Accords

[00:46:29,415]: Iran is now ever more isolated

[00:46:31,635]: The Hezbollah attacks have been extraordinarily successful

[00:46:35,395]: There have been very limited civilian casualties

[00:46:38,235]: That could have taken place

[00:46:40,155]: Fantastic

[00:46:42,055]: But then they would have had

[00:46:44,095]: Think of the psychology of the world today

[00:46:47,135]: If the attack on Iran had happened without that terrible degradation that has led moderate opinion middle England middle America to think about Israel in a fundamentally different way I think the world would have been on side

[00:47:03,655]: It would have been easier for Europe and America to come in behind Israel

[00:47:10,135]: It would have been much better if it had been an Israeli leader other than Netanyahu encouraging the Iranian people to rise up against the regime

[00:47:19,675]: I think that what has happened in Gaza fairly or unfairly you have to deal with reality has undermined the image of Israel that is already affecting them and will affect them more in the years to come

[00:47:31,855]: And I think that alternative would not have been ideal

[00:47:35,055]: You’re right Sinwa would have been there

[00:47:37,775]: But the other thing

[00:47:39,315]: I’ve missed the most important thing of all

[00:47:42,475]: I’ve been told by very senior people that Hamas and other terrorist groups are replacing lost fighters at a rate of 5 to 1

[00:47:53,435]: They’re being radicalised

[00:47:55,235]: Young people whose parents have been killed whose siblings have been killed others around the Middle East watching what’s been visited upon Gaza

[00:48:03,195]: Pictures daily images of starvation and death and destruction

[00:48:09,215]: That is also going to lead and fuel terrorism not for the next year or 5 years but for the next 50 years

[00:48:17,135]: Winning hearts and minds is not an insignificant or soft approach in a situation like this

[00:48:23,635]: So doing something that had been less graphic I think would have been better in so many different ways for Israel

[00:48:32,395]: Well let me just see if we can stress test that just for the sake of the fact that I’m not clear in my head what I think about it genuinely

[00:48:41,215]: And a lot of people have a different perspective to the one you just laid out

[00:48:44,995]: And I just want to find out if we can discuss it

[00:48:47,355]: So when I think about it the first thing I see is that I think this is the first war of this kind highly urban combat very asymmetrical in that you have terrorists who don’t wear uniforms they don’t identify themselves as enemies which an army is supposed to do under the laws of war hiding under civilian buildings in tunnels and you’ve got smartphones

[00:49:17,475]: So every time Israel tries to take somebody out under a civilian building like this recent guy he was also called Sinwa I think but he had a different first name

[00:49:27,635]: He was killed underneath a hospital

[00:49:31,075]: So every time that happens you’ve got smartphone footage

[00:49:34,735]: And that is as you say causing lots and lots of people around the world to think that what’s happening is terrible because undeniably at a human level what is happening is terrible

[00:49:44,995]: There’s just no way of describing it in any other way

[00:49:48,055]: But then I go OK let’s think about this and contextualize it with previous conflicts

[00:49:54,315]: What did we do to Germany at the end of World War II and why did we do it

[00:49:59,475]: Well there was a Russian scientist and historian who did analysis

[00:50:04,195]: Basically in conventional munitions the Allies dropped the equivalent of two Hiroshima’s a week on Germany

[00:50:10,555]: Flattened I think over 80 cities 600 000 civilians killed I think in the last year alone something like that

[00:50:16,155]: Don’t quote me on it

[00:50:17,215]: If we’d had smartphones then you would have exactly the same conversation

[00:50:23,055]: Let me test your argument

[00:50:24,775]: I get it I get it but I think it’s if I may say so not relevant

[00:50:30,255]: OK tell me why

[00:50:30,915]: Let me ask you how is flattening Gaza making Israel more safe when the funders are in Tehran hundreds of miles away

[00:50:42,475]: Question one

[00:50:43,495]: Question two if you agree with senior people and actually it’s just obvious the number of people who are going to turn to extremist movements are going to be high given what’s happening

[00:50:55,515]: How is that going to make Israel safer

[00:50:56,835]: Well I think if you take the World War II example I think you could make the same argument

[00:51:02,315]: You could say look Germans seeing their cities flattened they’re being radicalised to continue fighting which they were

[00:51:07,675]: They absolutely were

[00:51:08,895]: And Hitler’s propaganda made heavy use of this

[00:51:11,775]: They were saying look what they want is the end of Germany

[00:51:14,335]: And he was using this in order to cling on to power

[00:51:17,115]: But they’re trying to beat Germany

[00:51:19,275]: Right and Israel’s trying to beat Hamas

[00:51:21,755]: They’re trying to beat extremist anti Zionist Islamism

[00:51:26,615]: Including Hamas right

[00:51:27,895]: Sure but Hamas is a tiny

[00:51:29,575]: One of the reasons they’ve been able to attack Iran people will say again we’re just having this debate to understand the arguments

[00:51:35,875]: The reason Israel is taking the opportunity to take out the nuclear facilities is they’ve decapitated Hamas and decapitated Hezbollah

[00:51:43,775]: And prior to that they couldn’t attack Iran and feel that they wouldn’t be attacked themselves

[00:51:48,235]: I don’t think that’s true

[00:51:49,235]: I think that they were worried about Hezbollah a truly formidable we thought fighting force with lots and lots of rockets

[00:51:58,655]: Hamas was not a deterrent for attacking Iran

[00:52:02,635]: So I don’t see that taking out Hamas

[00:52:05,455]: And besides they haven’t taken them all out as we’ve agreed

[00:52:09,315]: And in Germany they’re trying to defeat a nation

[00:52:13,835]: That was not an ideal

[00:52:14,815]: Nazism wasn’t rising and all sorts of other people in other places around the world in sympathy with the people who had just committed the Holocaust

[00:52:22,035]: They believed correctly that they could beat Germany and overcome the threat of Nazism

[00:52:28,275]: That is not at all like Islamic fundamentalism

[00:52:32,095]: Because it’s an ideology that crosses national borders

[00:52:35,095]: So did fascism

[00:52:36,475]: Fascism was rife across Europe

[00:52:38,915]: Yeah but come on

[00:52:41,375]: I hope you’ll acknowledge that it’s completely different

[00:52:45,935]: German Nazism which was explicitly an ideology for a new Reich based on German ethnic superiority the Aryan race that was not a growing trend in other parts of the world nor was it supposed to be

[00:52:57,955]: No no no

[00:52:58,415]: Hold on a second

[00:52:59,995]: Look one of the divisions that was defending the Reichstag in the last days of the Reich was SS Charlemagne which was full of French Nazis

[00:53:07,375]: Nazi fascism was widespread across Eastern Europe Southern Europe Central Europe and Western Europe at that time

[00:53:15,455]: They weren’t even that good

[00:53:16,555]: I mean if you look at Italy Germany and Japan they were hardly an axis

[00:53:21,195]: They loathed each other

[00:53:22,515]: They didn’t coordinate effectively

[00:53:23,895]: If they had have done they might have won the war

[00:53:26,135]: I mean these religious fanatic ISIS the Muslim Brotherhood Hezbollah they’re all interchangeable

[00:53:32,115]: They all hate the West

[00:53:34,095]: They hate infidels

[00:53:35,095]: They believe that they’ll go to heaven

[00:53:36,455]: They want a caliphate that crosses national

[00:53:38,995]: One of the reasons that a very famous fundamentalist doctrine was written a few years ago that they wanted war in the Middle East so that it would leave a vacuum that could as it were create a cross border caliphate

[00:53:53,215]: I think you’re underestimating the fact that this is a virus that can travel very widely around the world even into Western nations and that to the extent that Israel has bombed Gaza to a pulp it has made it much more like

[00:54:09,035]: I hate to say it but mark my words

[00:54:11,875]: Terrorism of that kind will grow over the course of our lifetimes

[00:54:16,055]: I’m sorry to say it

[00:54:17,015]: It will make Israel less safe even if they take out Iran

[00:54:20,455]: But taking out Iran is obviously the necessary step

[00:54:22,755]: Flattening Gaza has nothing to do with it

[00:54:24,575]: How is that helping

[00:54:25,593]: Well the argument I think from an Israeli perspective would be you cannot leave the people who did October 7th in power over the border

[00:54:34,713]: Even if it means there’s going to be like thousands more of these people coming after Israel in the years to come

[00:54:40,333]: As the security services of

[00:54:42,293]: Look I’m not saying this is the right argument

[00:54:44,913]: I’m just trying to understand it

[00:54:46,333]: But I do think it’s worth bearing in mind that in 20 30 years time the fundamentalists and fanatics are in a certain sense psychopaths

[00:54:58,453]: But they’re also in a certain sense strategic

[00:55:01,493]: You can see that these are not

[00:55:03,293]: I think the Iranian regime have been playing quite a long game

[00:55:07,653]: I think they signed that deal

[00:55:09,753]: They were obviously deceiving the inspectors

[00:55:12,793]: And I think they want Israel to eventually be eliminated

[00:55:16,253]: And I think they want the image of Israel to be destroyed

[00:55:20,673]: I think the image of Israel has been disastrously contaminated

[00:55:27,453]: I think it’s a great country

[00:55:29,513]: But I talk to people who are like me pro Israel and they just think this has been a complete disaster

[00:55:35,993]: And I think we have to reckon with that

[00:55:37,793]: I agree with that

[00:55:38,773]: That’s certainly been the case

[00:55:40,213]: The question that I’m trying to answer in my head is were there better options available

[00:55:44,273]: And what you’re saying is well you leave Hamas in power

[00:55:48,073]: You give away thousands and thousands of

[00:55:51,933]: Many of these people who are in Israeli jails are actual terrorists like the people who committed October the 7th

[00:55:57,493]: Well Sid Sinwald was released from a previous

[00:55:59,913]: Yes Sinwald was let out of an Israeli prison and then organized October the 7th right

[00:56:02,153]: Well I mean there are some hostage

[00:56:03,993]: As I understand it some hostage families have said no we must not do deals because it will just mean future families

[00:56:09,693]: In opposition

[00:56:10,973]: So there was obviously a tension in Israel’s objectives here to win the war and to release the hostages

[00:56:15,993]: There is a slight problem there

[00:56:17,753]: But I think that counterfactual is an extraordinary one

[00:56:22,253]: That yes it’s a proportionate

[00:56:23,613]: Proportionate is the wrong word

[00:56:25,793]: Maybe a more limited response going really powerfully from an accord with Saudi Arabia the isolation of Iran try and knock out Hezbollah and either destabilize the regime Naftali Bennett or go after the regime directly Netanyahu

[00:56:41,363]: I think that the whole picture of the Middle East and the wider world would have been different

[00:56:47,313]: I think the problem is as well it goes back to an earlier point that we on the Israelis and the West are fighting people who do not care if they live or die

[00:56:58,053]: And not only that they would actually prefer to die

[00:57:01,153]: So you’re fighting a war where they would prefer to die if it meant that they would win in 100 and 200 years time

[00:57:12,073]: That is a type of war that we’re not accustomed to fighting

[00:57:16,093]: It’s not like fighting the Russians

[00:57:17,433]: It’s not like fighting practically any other enemy

[00:57:20,613]: And as a result what do you do with that type of enemy

[00:57:24,233]: It’s practically impossible to win

[00:57:26,233]: It’s interesting isn’t it

[00:57:28,413]: It’s difficult sometimes to get Westerners to under

[00:57:31,333]: We talked about this before we came on air the fundamentalist mindset

[00:57:34,753]: One of the great virtues I think of the Enlightenment is the value the beauty of doubt

[00:57:43,813]: Doubt that we might be wrong

[00:57:46,213]: The science I think as an institution is one that comes up with bold theories that are testable and is willing to revise them in the light of new information

[00:57:56,433]: All scientific theories are provisional

[00:57:58,773]: Isn’t that fantastic

[00:58:00,233]: Whereas with an ideology I have the truth and nothing will change my mind

[00:58:05,813]: Evidence won’t change my mind

[00:58:07,153]: You can’t perform an experiment to show a fanatical religious zealot that their ideology is wrong

[00:58:14,053]: And if that is linked as I said right in the beginning to the glorification of martyrdom where the most valuable thing you can do is to die that as you say is something that’s difficult to get the Western mind to fully engage with

[00:58:27,773]: It’s almost like the Enlightenment happened too long ago

[00:58:30,953]: We find it difficult to understand that somebody could be that way

[00:58:33,473]: I think I have a bit of a tenuous sense of what it’s like partly because of the largely because of the fundamentalists on my father’s side of the family

[00:58:41,753]: And when you see people who are completely I like the fact that you know you tested my argument there

[00:58:46,613]: I think you’re willing to revise your opinion if you think I’ve made a good point

[00:58:49,833]: I like these conversations because I think I would revise mine too

[00:58:54,313]: That isn’t something that happens with father

[00:58:59,693]: By the way we should say just in the interest of balance like I have people in my family my family are Christian and some of them are as intractable on certain things and would very happily die for their beliefs with a weapon in their hands Orthodox Christians you know

[00:59:15,813]: That’s interesting

[00:59:17,193]: So they believe 100 that they have truth through revelation and they’ll be willing to kill

[00:59:23,513]: They’ll be willing to die themselves for their belief would they be willing to kill others for their belief

[00:59:27,053]: If they did if the other person just didn’t believe it they would kill them

[00:59:30,253]: No no no no

[00:59:30,953]: But if the other person was in conflict with them in some way over their beliefs

[00:59:36,693]: Told them that they weren’t allowed to believe

[00:59:38,773]: They would die for it

[00:59:40,053]: No no no

[00:59:40,333]: They wouldn’t do that

[00:59:41,133]: No

[00:59:41,533]: But they would very happily sign up to fight in a religious war if they felt that they were on the right side of that religious war

[00:59:48,193]: Yeah well I grew up in a kind of evangelical Christian tradition

[00:59:52,813]: But it’s not the same as fundamentalist Islam as well let’s be honest

[00:59:56,473]: Yeah because it’s that sense that it can be legitimate to kill infidels and a glorious thing even if they’re not threatening your religion

[01:00:06,273]: There’s also another element that we haven’t looked at here

[01:00:08,953]: So my grandfather was Venezuelan but he’s originally from the Middle East

[01:00:11,713]: He was from Lebanon

[01:00:12,753]: But he was a Lebanese Christian

[01:00:14,293]: And he was a historian

[01:00:15,533]: I remember my mother said to him we’re going to go and visit Israel

[01:00:18,393]: So just give me the chronology again

[01:00:20,713]: Just explain that

[01:00:22,193]: So my grandfather his family was originally from Lebanon

[01:00:24,993]: They were originally from Tripoli in Lebanon

[01:00:26,973]: It’s why I look Jewish and I get loads of anti Semitism online because I look exactly like my grandfather with white skin

[01:00:33,173]: Now I remember so he was a historian

[01:00:36,113]: And I remember my mother saying to him we’re going to visit Israel

[01:00:39,773]: Would you like to come with us

[01:00:41,553]: And he said the words as long as I live I will never set foot in Israeli soil

[01:00:45,973]: I will never put money in an Israeli pocket

[01:00:48,353]: And I will never ever acknowledge the existence of that

[01:00:53,033]: And then it got a bit fruity shall we just say

[01:00:56,833]: But underneath the joke there is a very very real sentiment which and I don’t think people in the West understand this the rabid hatred and anti Semitism rampant through the Arab world particularly the Muslim world

[01:01:10,313]: And by the way my grandfather was a Lebanese Christian

[01:01:14,053]: And when people say Israel have overreacted I don’t think they also understand the existential threat that Israel is under day in day out 24 7 every minute of every hour

[01:01:28,773]: Yes so true

[01:01:29,553]: You know I went to Gaza and the West Bank in February

[01:01:33,193]: And the border of Gaza I wasn’t allowed to go inside

[01:01:36,193]: But what fascinated me about the West Bank is because my name Syed it’s an Islamic name it’s actually a holy Islamic name

[01:01:46,913]: And to get talking to people I mean it was a bit disingenuous and I was slightly uncomfortable

[01:01:51,813]: I didn’t tell them I was a journalist but I wanted to get unvarnished access to what they truly thought which is often might be difficult for a white journalist turning up

[01:02:00,173]: They might be a bit suspicious all these people trying to find out if I’m a journalist

[01:02:02,953]: But whereas they’ve got this Syed here’s my driving license the problem would have been if they’d Googled my name and seen that I’d written some pieces that were sympathetic to Israel

[01:02:12,473]: That could have been quite dangerous looking back on it

[01:02:16,283]: But I had conversation after conversation

[01:02:19,213]: And I would say that of the 20 deep conversations I had 18 or 19 wanted Israel to be obliterated

[01:02:32,253]: And genocidal so polite and lovely and conversational when it turned to Israel it got darker but they assumed I’d go along with it and I’m kind of listening and trying to find out as much as I can about the way they think about it

[01:02:46,153]: And yes it’s virulent and complete contempt for a two state solution

[01:02:52,513]: They don’t want a two state solution utter contempt for the Palestinian Authority which they think is too moderate and corrupt

[01:02:59,453]: Huge admiration many of them for Hamas

[01:03:01,813]: By the way just to go back to our earlier one support for Hamas in the West Bank has gone up and for terrorism

[01:03:09,273]: And this is leading to a horrible cycle of settler violence which I think is going to be made much worse by what’s happened in Gaza

[01:03:16,413]: One of the things as well to what Francis is saying is I remember in my former career as a translator I used to go to translators conference and there was a lovely Egyptian man there great guy

[01:03:27,893]: He’d always get up and sing at the end of all

[01:03:30,273]: He was a lovely lovely man genuinely lovely man

[01:03:33,153]: And then one day and I was not talking about politics or anything at the time and I remember him talking about and whenever the subject of the Middle East conflict or anything like that came up he would always say well the Jews want this the Jews want that the Jews

[01:03:48,293]: And I remember saying to him do you mean Jews or Israelis

[01:03:50,093]: Oh yeah Israelis

[01:03:51,473]: I think the other thing that happens in the Middle East is there’s very little distinction between those two concepts

[01:03:57,853]: And so the hatred of Israel is really projected onto the hatred of Jews specifically

[01:04:03,993]: But don’t you think that you’ve got a sort of strange almost parallel phenomenon in many Western universities

[01:04:10,493]: Yes

[01:04:12,033]: Someone should write a book about it

[01:04:14,033]: So is that in Love Letter

[01:04:15,693]: I talk about the fact that the West has been corrupted

[01:04:18,453]: I’ll read that by the time it’s come on

[01:04:20,653]: Excellent

[01:04:21,113]: But could you read what would be a good book for you to read

[01:04:23,713]: Black Box Thinking

[01:04:24,353]: Black Box Thinking

[01:04:24,933]: Yes

[01:04:25,573]: Thank you

[01:04:26,133]: I’ll do that

[01:04:27,733]: So anyway my point is that this is where I think a lot of the Israeli thinking on this comes from

[01:04:36,213]: It’s like we’re surrounded by people who want to do to us every day what they did on October 7th and you want us to go easy on them

[01:04:45,233]: But remember draw a distinction between the fanatics and the moderates

[01:04:47,833]: Very important in the Arab world

[01:04:49,033]: But you said yourself

[01:04:50,073]: In the West Bank

[01:04:51,073]: In the West Bank

[01:04:51,733]: Yes

[01:04:52,073]: But look at OK street opinion in Saudi Arabia

[01:04:55,693]: But the regimes in the Arab they are desperate to have peace with Israel and trade with Israel

[01:05:03,713]: And they’re hoping that Arab street opinion will follow as the growth and the prosperity comes along

[01:05:08,853]: You distinguish between the moderate Arabs and the fanatics

[01:05:11,693]: You want to isolate the fanatics isolate Iran

[01:05:14,513]: And then I think it wasn’t impossible that Israel could reach a situation where all these proxy terrorist groups were funded by Iran and to an extent Qatar

[01:05:25,993]: I take your point Matthew

[01:05:28,263]: And we talk about what the West doesn’t understand

[01:05:31,053]: I always remember my grandfather incredibly intelligent was a doctor

[01:05:35,393]: When he finished he was a brilliant doctor

[01:05:38,113]: He then became an historian wrote books award winning books all the rest of it

[01:05:44,923]: And I love him dearly

[01:05:46,433]: One of the most singular influences of my life

[01:05:50,433]: Especially his views about the Jews

[01:05:51,433]: Yeah exactly

[01:05:52,253]: Yeah having worked with one mate turns out he was right

[01:05:59,113]: But a rabid anti Semite rabid rabid rabid

[01:06:03,893]: And this isn’t an ignorant person

[01:06:05,733]: This is a highly intelligent highly educated man spoke four languages

[01:06:11,313]: And this is not a minority opinion in the Middle East

[01:06:14,213]: And it is a type of hatred that I don’t think if you’ve lived in Western countries you will understand

[01:06:22,213]: It is it’s something else

[01:06:24,873]: The fact that I haven’t encountered

[01:06:27,753]: It’s akin to the KKK’s hatred of black people

[01:06:30,413]: That’s what we’re really talking about here

[01:06:33,013]: Yeah it’s horrific

[01:06:34,633]: I agree with that

[01:06:37,683]: But I do think the context has changed in a way that I didn’t envision over the last 20 years

[01:06:43,293]: Those accords were very significant in the Trump’s first administration

[01:06:47,833]: The fact that MBS I think wanted to do a deal with Israel

[01:06:53,033]: That sense that modernization requires trade and relationships with Israel that would lead to the benefit

[01:07:02,613]: The great thing about trade Ridley would have told you this Matt Ridley his wonderful book The Rational Optimist it’s positive sum

[01:07:09,533]: Yes

[01:07:09,933]: You do something for each other and you both benefit

[01:07:13,113]: Israel could be such a force for good in the Middle East

[01:07:16,473]: And these Iranians they were ahead of the curve for so many hundreds of years

[01:07:21,393]: And now just completely immiserated by this medieval regime which hits women for lifting the hijab that executes people that represses free speech and free association that is subject to sanctions and has to go out to get their oil

[01:07:40,463]: I mean that is no way to live

[01:07:43,323]: Where do immigrants want to come in their millions

[01:07:46,903]: Do they want to go to Iran

[01:07:48,283]: No

[01:07:48,603]: Do they want to go to Russia

[01:07:50,023]: No

[01:07:50,983]: Do they want to go to North Korea

[01:07:52,163]: No people in Africa aspire to go across water and risk their lives to go to North

[01:07:56,723]: They want to come to the West

[01:07:58,163]: When people vote with their feet they want to come here

[01:08:00,763]: The reason we have a fantastic life and I think people in the Middle East even those who have prejudices against Israel and there are many of them let’s say Arab street opinion rather than the fanatics I think we’re going in the direction of

[01:08:15,683]: Well that’s a great hope here isn’t it

[01:08:18,123]: Because it’s ironic for us to say having just praised the West but because many of those Middle Eastern countries are not democracies what really fundamentally matters is what does MBS think what does the leader of the UAE think etc

[01:08:30,063]: And they’re all very not keen on what Iran is doing

[01:08:34,223]: And despite the things that you were talking about nonetheless would like to have some kind of peaceful settlement with Israel so that this can be all put to bed

[01:08:42,443]: It’s had to be sensitive rights sort of pushing away the clerics getting as much as they can without inflaming that religious sentiment

[01:08:49,743]: And would you agree it’s moved faster than one expected

[01:08:52,363]: I think so

[01:08:53,503]: And whether people liked Donald Trump or not that is very much to his credit having seen those accords through

[01:08:58,963]: So that I think is the hope

[01:09:01,703]: But it all fundamentally I think depends on what happens with Iran

[01:09:05,463]: Because if that regime collapses then you either have a new regime that’s good which is possible in Iran or you have a new regime that’s bad which is also possible in Iran

[01:09:17,683]: Or civil war

[01:09:18,423]: Or you have civil war which is really really really bad

[01:09:21,823]: And that I think is where it’s at

[01:09:23,683]: Yeah I agree

[01:09:24,243]: I agree

[01:09:24,703]: And it might be just worth finishing with this idea of China

[01:09:27,923]: You know China is such an enigmatic player in this

[01:09:33,303]: Because a lot of people believed I don’t know if you believed this that because they had some limits on political freedom they wouldn’t innovate in the way that we’ve seen in the West

[01:09:42,563]: And yet a lot of their growth under Deng Xiaoping was really catch up growth

[01:09:48,123]: A lot of it was stealing of intellectual property

[01:09:51,923]: A lot of it was copycatting

[01:09:54,943]: But to my great surprise they are now definitely on the frontier of technological progress

[01:10:02,943]: It says a lot about that country

[01:10:04,843]: They’re able to do this with what is a repressive clique at the top of the country

[01:10:09,863]: But it’s an ancient civilization

[01:10:11,663]: They had meritocratic entrance exams for their civil service thousands of years ago not long after the Qin unification

[01:10:19,143]: But what worries me the most I think is that if the West continues to increase the debt continues to increase the amount of interest to service the debt struggles to invest in defense loses its way which I think it has been doing to an extent and China uses the sophisticated technology to become a surveillance state which it already is becoming so that they start to really be able to properly control how people think politically even if they have freedom to think technologically and scientifically

[01:10:50,243]: That could be a vision of dystopia of a kind that I think not even Orwell envisioned

[01:10:56,163]: And to the extent that they start shaping the rest of the world in that image that’s a big risk for us

[01:11:01,363]: And so I think whenever I see a story of any kind I think how is China reacting to that

[01:11:07,063]: How are they reacting to Trump and Musk falling out

[01:11:09,843]: How are they reacting to whatever else is happening in the West

[01:11:14,303]: And often I think they’re laughing and they’re seeing us weaken

[01:11:17,983]: They think they could go

[01:11:19,763]: And I think it’s not the Chinese people

[01:11:22,863]: I mean I’ve been to China many times

[01:11:24,483]: I have many rivals in table tennis who are brilliant brilliant people many of whom suffered terrible persecution during the Cultural Revolution

[01:11:31,203]: But that clique at the top if it managed to commandeer power indefinitely I think that would be a disaster for the whole world and for the future of civilization

[01:11:42,443]: So that’s the wild card I think in all of this

[01:11:45,263]: And what I’m not sure about is what they truly think about what’s happening in Iran

[01:11:51,283]: It’s difficult to decode how they feel about it

[01:11:53,943]: Well that’s the perfect answer to our usual last question which is what’s the one thing we’re not talking about

[01:11:58,343]: You’ve answered it

[01:11:59,363]: So head on over to our substack where we’re going to ask Matthew your questions

[01:12:05,903]: Coming from a fundamentalist Christian family do you have any understanding of Islamic and Jewish fundamentalists and what is the difference between them

---

---

Transcribe your media with TRNSCRB.
Transcribe multiple languages, effortlessly. Chat with your projects. Enhance your workflow.