In recent discussions surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Coleman Hughes has spotlighted the pressing issue of Iran’s nuclear program. His insights, featured in a thought-provoking YouTube video, invite viewers to consider the implications of a nuclear-armed Iran not only for the region but for global stability as well. This blog post will delve into various claims made in Hughes’ commentary, providing a detailed fact-checking analysis to separate fact from fiction. As the stakes get higher with ongoing strikes and diplomatic maneuvers, understanding the nuances of this complex situation becomes crucial for informed public discourse. Join us as we dissect Hughes’ assertions and examine the broader context of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Find a fact check of this transcript on CheckForFacts
Transcript:
[00:00:01,080]: Welcome to another episode of Conversations with Coleman [00:00:04,940]: My guest today is Mark Dubowitz [00:00:07,480]: Mark is a Canadian American attorney former venture capitalist and current CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies a public policy think tank [00:00:16,040]: His focus for many years has been Iran in particular Iran’s nuclear ambitions [00:00:22,079]: He was arguably the leading critic outside of the Trump administration of the Obama era nuclear deal with Iran [00:00:28,920]: He’s testified before Congress over 20 times and spearheaded influential research and sanctions initiatives through his think tank [00:00:37,000]: I wanted this episode to be a one stop shop for anyone who wants to understand the Iran nuclear issue at a deep level [00:00:43,740]: So we start the story way back in 1979 when the Islamic regime that currently rules first took power [00:00:50,459]: And then we trace the regime’s nuclear ambitions through the 80s 90s and 2000s all the way up to Obama’s nuclear deal in 2015 [00:00:58,979]: Then we cover Trump’s departure from that deal and Biden’s attempt to revive parts of it [00:01:03,979]: We also go over the basic science of uranium enrichment [00:01:07,379]: For instance what does it mean for uranium to be 5 enriched as opposed to 60 and so on [00:01:13,980]: Finally we address the question of what’s at stake [00:01:16,919]: Why does it matter whether Iran gets nuclear weapons and what actions are justified to stop this from happening [00:01:23,500]: Keep in mind that this episode was recorded before Israel struck deep at the heart of Iran’s nuclear program just a few days ago [00:01:31,139]: So while this podcast episode doesn’t address the headlines of the past few days it will I hope give you a much deeper level of context for the articles and commentary that you’re going to be seeing over the next weeks and months [00:01:43,720]: So without further ado Mark Dubowitz [00:01:54,800]: Mark Dubowitz thanks so much for coming on my show [00:01:58,040]: Great honor to be here [00:01:58,860]: Thanks Coleman [00:01:59,819]: All right [00:02:00,300]: So before we get into the topic of this podcast which is Iran from a 10 000 foot point of view how did you come to be an Iran expert [00:02:14,339]: What’s your bio [00:02:15,360]: How’d you get here [00:02:16,919]: So strange bio Coleman [00:02:18,179]: Actually I was working in the private sector in high tech and venture capital in the 1990s working in Israel working in Canada and had that sort of standard career trajectory for someone with a law degree and an MBA [00:02:34,419]: And then 9 11 happened and I was sitting in my living room in Toronto watching the BBC reporting on 9 11 [00:02:42,039]: It was hours after the planes had hit the Twin Towers and the BBC host was blaming America for the 9 11 attacks [00:02:53,039]: I was so upset that I actually took my shoe and I threw it at the TV screen as my wife was walking down the stairs [00:03:01,160]: She sort of stopped and said you know darling either you’re going to have to get a therapist or you’re going to have to switch careers [00:03:10,479]: I won’t say whether I got a therapist but I definitely switched careers [00:03:14,660]: I went down to Washington [00:03:15,940]: I actually tried to join the U S military but I didn’t have a green card and I couldn’t work in the U S government [00:03:21,220]: So I joined this new startup think tank [00:03:23,919]: I’d worked in startups in the tech sector and it just opened its doors the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and joined them to help build the business [00:03:33,460]: But early on and this was right after 9 11 it was the Iraq War I became very interested in Iran [00:03:39,059]: I’d grown up in Toronto which is affectionately known as Tehran to so a huge Iranian community [00:03:45,820]: Always fascinated by Iran its history but more importantly its contemporary reality as a significant threat to the United States to Israel to other free nations [00:03:59,000]: I began working on really the only thing that I had any competence in which was the issue of sanctions [00:04:04,320]: The United States had just begun to understand the importance of economic and financial power and the U S Treasury Department had just set up a whole new division on terrorism and financial intelligence [00:04:17,380]: This was under the Bush administration so I began working on sanctions with the administration and with Congress and began to really understand the power of this coercive tool of American diplomacy which was to really try to squeeze the regime into abandoning its nuclear weapons ambitions and its support for terrorism and spent now 21 years working on the issue [00:04:46,160]: I got sanctioned by Iran myself in 2019 threatened by Iran I have 24 7 security [00:04:53,660]: But according to the regime I’m quote an economic terrorist and they have obviously decided that FDD and my colleagues represent a threat to the Islamic Republic [00:05:08,100]: So in 2022 we were blamed for also being behind the protests that broke out in Iran [00:05:13,579]: So they seem to have this obsession with me and FDD [00:05:16,940]: You seem to be very powerful over there somehow [00:05:19,739]: They think we are yeah [00:05:20,940]: But I think they you know they clearly are overstating our influence but there’s sort of this regime conspiracy theory about people like me and Washington and they think we are much more influential than we actually are [00:05:34,739]: Right [00:05:36,100]: Okay so the central issue of American foreign policy looking at Iran over the past many decades really the world the whole Western world the whole civilized world is whether Iran is going to get a nuclear weapon [00:05:59,100]: So from 10 000 feet what is at stake here [00:06:02,739]: Why does it matter whether the Iranian regime gets a stockpile of nuclear weapons [00:06:10,880]: Yeah it’s a good question [00:06:12,320]: I mean I think the first question why does it matter to Americans [00:06:14,279]: I mean I think it clearly matters [00:06:16,279]: Maybe you can break it down to the American point of view the Israeli point of view and the Saudi point of view just for starters [00:06:22,559]: Yeah [00:06:23,079]: So let’s start with the American point of view [00:06:24,959]: I mean you know the Islamic Republic of Iran as distinct from Iran as distinct from the Iranian people has been at war with the United States since 1979 since the Islamic Revolution [00:06:35,739]: We are considered in their conception to be the great Satan [00:06:40,480]: And you know over the course of decades they’ve killed and maimed and kidnapped thousands of Americans [00:06:48,880]: And they’ve had this active nuclear weapons program for many years [00:06:54,720]: I’m sure we’ll talk about the details of it [00:06:56,820]: But they are a revolutionary regime [00:07:00,359]: This is not North Korea you know a sort of bankrupt Stalinist regime whose only ambitions maybe is to take over South Korea but don’t have sort of an expansionist agenda through the Indo Pacific [00:07:12,380]: This is Islamic Republic which has a revolutionary agenda and revolutionary ideals [00:07:18,000]: They are hard men with ideas [00:07:20,779]: And they want to spread their ideas through the Middle East to begin with and then through the broader Muslim world [00:07:26,570]: And they believe that having nuclear weapons will give them that power [00:07:30,779]: They’re also at least in their rhetoric and arguably in their actions they’re exterminationists [00:07:37,179]: I mean they have said over and over again that they want to wipe Israel off the map [00:07:42,450]: And they’ve supported terrorist organizations who are committed to that agenda including Hamas who they financed and directed and provided weapons to and trained for the October 7th invasion of Israel which again has as its objective to kill as many Israelis as possible and wipe Israel off the map [00:08:03,899]: So they’re a serious country and they’re a serious regime and they have serious power [00:08:08,500]: They have huge oil and natural gas reserves and they obviously have embassies all around the world and diplomats and spies operating out of those embassies and have the largest ballistic missile inventory in the Middle East which they’ve now used on two occasions against Israel in April and October of last year firing over 400 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles [00:08:32,020]: They’ve attacked the Saudis [00:08:33,760]: They’ve attacked the Emiratis [00:08:35,400]: They’ve created much blood and destruction through the Middle East defending regimes like Assad’s you know have killed and maimed hundreds of thousands of Syrians [00:08:45,059]: And so they’ve created a lot of destruction [00:08:47,900]: And I think it matters a lot to the world that they don’t get a nuclear weapon [00:08:52,559]: I’ll just add one other thing [00:08:53,580]: They also have an active intercontinental ballistic missile program an ICBM [00:08:58,719]: ICBMs are not used to deliver a conventional payload [00:09:02,320]: They’re used to deliver a nuclear payload [00:09:04,799]: And they’re not for Israel and they’re not for Saudi Arabia because they have ballistic missiles that can strike those targets [00:09:11,760]: The ICBMs are for the United States of America [00:09:13,880]: So they want nuclear tipped ICBMs to threaten the United States and engage in nuclear blackmail [00:09:23,020]: So the Middle East is famously complicated but one aspect of it that—one simplification of it that is accurate some of the time is as a cold war and occasionally a hot war between Saudi Arabia and Iran with proxy wars almost in every other country in the Middle East [00:09:48,400]: And even at one level of abstraction higher than that a conflict between Sunni Islam and Shia Islam [00:09:55,919]: So can you talk a little bit about the importance of Shia Islam in the motivation of the current how we should view Iran [00:10:13,119]: Yeah I mean it’s an ancient conflict obviously with deep theological roots [00:10:18,900]: But I think the important thing to understand in the modern reality is that the Islamic Republic of Iran came into being after the Islamic Revolution of 79 after Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah of Iran [00:10:34,080]: And for Khomeini this was an opportunity to build an Islamist state based on Shia Islam [00:10:43,039]: Now Shia Muslims are the minority in the Middle East [00:10:46,679]: The Sunnis are the majority and indeed worldwide [00:10:52,340]: And he believed that this was their moment [00:10:57,260]: This was their sort of theological ambition their moment to dominate the Muslim world [00:11:06,979]: And he was contemptuous of the Saudis and the other kingdoms in the Middle East whether it’s the UAE or Jordan [00:11:19,359]: And he had contempt for these Sunni Muslims who were skiing in Stad Switzerland and drinking whiskey with their infidel American friends while inviting American oil executives to exploit the Saudi oil fields [00:11:39,239]: And also having these non believers these American troops on Saudi soil and in the Middle East in bases [00:11:48,599]: And so he was a hard man of hard ideas and this was really his opportunity to create the first modern Shiite Islamist state [00:11:59,859]: And he’s in some respects been very successful in this given the Saudis and these other Sunni leaders an incredibly hard time in the past almost five decades [00:12:11,440]: Okay so one more question about recent Iranian history before we get to the enrichment of uranium and all the diplomacy around that issue [00:12:23,919]: So you go back before the Iranian Revolution and you look at pictures of Iran [00:12:28,859]: You see women in bikinis or other garb that is modern and Western [00:12:35,460]: You don’t see women having to wear the veil in public [00:12:39,859]: You see in short a secular society that also has Islamic components deep Islamic components [00:12:46,719]: But you see what looks to be a kind of pluralistic tolerant society [00:12:52,700]: All that changes after 1979 [00:12:56,880]: And in the past few years we’ve seen the morality police in Iran really cracking down on religious codes around women’s behavior and so forth [00:13:13,140]: So the question is what does the population of Iran want [00:13:18,840]: How much do we know from polling about the percent of the population that is secular and would probably welcome at least an organic internal change of regime [00:13:31,130]: And how much of the population really agrees with the core religious principles of the regime [00:13:40,219]: Look the short answer is it’s hard to tell [00:13:43,239]: I mean I’m not a big believer in polling in these authoritarian countries [00:13:47,080]: I mean you imagine Coleman it’s a Friday night [00:13:48,719]: You get a call and some guy says hi it’s Ahmed [00:13:51,739]: I’m calling from the Islamic Republic polling company [00:13:54,299]: Got a few questions for you Coleman [00:13:56,700]: And you say sure I’m just having dinner with the family [00:13:59,500]: But what do you got [00:14:01,059]: And he says we just want to poll on what do you think of the Islamic Republic of Iran [00:14:05,799]: Are you a supporter of Ali Khamenei you’re a big fan you’re a big fan [00:14:12,340]: So what’s interesting is you would expect therefore that the polling would be artificially inflated in support of the regime given the fact that you’re going to say you’re a big fan because you fear the consequences of opposing the regime publicly [00:14:29,739]: The polling does show that the vast majority of Iranians are opposed to the regime 80 [00:14:36,479]: That’s backed up by a number of intelligence reports from both the US and Israel which suggests similar numbers [00:14:45,440]: So again though I’m not a big fan of polling in authoritarian states the number may be even higher of people that oppose this regime [00:14:54,289]: It’s the vast majority of Iranians [00:14:56,260]: They despise this regime [00:14:58,059]: They are secularizing in great numbers [00:15:00,219]: A number of them are actually converting from Islam to Christianity [00:15:04,020]: When you talk to Iranians they’ll tell you that the mosques are empty [00:15:09,150]: But the private parties taking place in Tehran are full [00:15:13,940]: Like the raves that are taking place obviously outside of the purview of the morality police [00:15:22,979]: Young Iranians look back at the time of the Shah [00:15:27,900]: Obviously they weren’t alive [00:15:29,299]: But they see the same videos and photos that we see [00:15:32,979]: And they see an Iran that was modern and secular and prosperous [00:15:39,719]: I think they actually overstate how good things were [00:15:44,460]: Things were not perfect under the Shah [00:15:47,280]: I mean it was an authoritarian state [00:15:48,700]: He had a pretty brutal police force and intelligence services that cracked down on dissent [00:15:56,880]: But I think it’s a country that they look back on at a time before the Islamic Revolution [00:16:03,179]: And they want that to return which is why the Shah’s son Reza Pahlavi the sort of crown prince in exile is really popular amongst Iranians both inside Iran and outside Iran [00:16:16,440]: Because he just represents that time of greater peace and prosperity and stability [00:16:21,840]: So the regime is facing a population that the majority of whom despise it [00:16:26,979]: But 20 still support the regime for reasons we can discuss [00:16:31,159]: Let’s get into some of the basic 101 elements of uranium enrichment that puts into context all the news we hear from the past 10 years [00:16:42,000]: What does it mean for uranium to be 3 67 enriched as opposed to 20 enriched as opposed to 60 enriched as opposed to 90 enriched [00:16:54,140]: Why do these numbers matter [00:16:55,619]: What do they mean [00:16:58,000]: And maybe you can just give people a little context on that [00:17:01,739]: Sure [00:17:01,880]: I mean I don’t want to get into the nuclear physics like full on granularities here [00:17:07,800]: But I think the basic idea to understand is that if you’re going to produce a nuclear weapon you need fissile material [00:17:15,099]: That’s one of the essential components of a nuclear weapon [00:17:19,420]: And you can get fissile material for nuclear weapons two ways [00:17:23,260]: One is you can enrich uranium to 90 to weapons grade level [00:17:29,140]: Or you can reprocess plutonium [00:17:32,219]: And you can turn that plutonium into the fissile material for a nuclear weapon [00:17:36,979]: So enrichment and plutonium [00:17:40,219]: There’s a lot of discussion on the enrichment side [00:17:41,819]: We’ll say a little bit more about the plutonium [00:17:43,420]: But on the enrichment side that has been the main pathway that Iran has pursued for decades as they have built up this really significant almost industrial size nuclear program [00:17:56,939]: And enriched uranium at 3 67 is what you would need for a civilian nuclear program [00:18:03,219]: So if you’re one of these countries and there are five countries right now that have civilian nuclear programs and don’t have nuclear weapons—that’s Argentina Brazil Germany the Netherlands and Japan [00:18:16,859]: Japan actually has a plutonium reprocessing route [00:18:21,119]: And by civilian you mean nuclear energy [00:18:22,920]: Nuclear energy right [00:18:23,800]: So if you want to power an electrical grid and you want to use nuclear power for that then you would build a civilian nuclear program and you would enrich to 3 67 [00:18:33,920]: And you would be like those five countries that do so and they don’t have nuclear weapons [00:18:38,693]: If you go to 20 percent then 20 percent is what you would use for a research reactor [00:18:45,433]: If you’re engaged in producing medical isotopes that were for medical research purposes you would need 20 percent enriched uranium for that reactor [00:18:56,793]: Now if you went to 60 percent there’s no civilian use for 60 percent enriched uranium [00:19:04,273]: You could possibly use that to power nuclear submarines so if you had a large submarine force and you wanted to power that with nuclear energy you would enrich to 60 percent [00:19:16,533]: And then finally you would go to 90 percent for weapons grade uranium to produce a bomb [00:19:22,813]: Now Iran has actually no justifiable use for any enriched uranium—3 67 20 percent 60 percent and certainly not 90 percent for weapons grade because number one Iran has massive oil and natural gas reserves second third fourth largest in the world [00:19:43,673]: It actually has a civilian nuclear reactor right now that was built by the Russians [00:19:50,913]: It has never used any of its enriched uranium these vast quantities of enriched uranium that it’s produced over the years for that reactor [00:19:58,353]: So how does it power that reactor [00:19:59,733]: Well it actually buys the fuel rods from the Russians [00:20:04,313]: The Russians ship over fuel rods [00:20:06,553]: The Iranians put it in their nuclear reactor [00:20:08,993]: They power this reactor and then it produces what’s called spent fuel and that spent fuel is then shipped back to the Russians [00:20:17,733]: Now you don’t want to let the Iranians keep the spent fuel because then they can reprocess it and turn it into plutonium and that plutonium can be used for a nuclear weapon [00:20:26,833]: So Iran can be today like 23 other countries in the world that have civilian nuclear programs but don’t enrich their uranium they don’t reprocess plutonium they buy fuel rods from By the way those 23 countries are all American allies [00:20:43,513]: A number of them have agreements with the United States called 1 2 3 agreements and we have this gold standard and that standard is essentially we the United States will provide you with civilian nuclear assistance and in some cases financing if you agree to no enrichment and no reprocessing [00:21:02,253]: So Iran can be one of those 23 countries not have enrichment or reprocessing [00:21:07,133]: It certainly doesn’t sound like it’s one of those five countries [00:21:10,093]: I mean when you talk about Iran and the Islamic Republic of Iran the leading state sponsor of terrorism which has been engaged in nuclear mendacity for decades certainly that’s not Argentina Brazil the Netherlands Germany or Japan [00:21:22,693]: But it’s certainly true Iran wants to be like the other countries the countries that actually have nuclear weapons and do enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium [00:21:31,233]: So that has been the big debate for decades [00:21:34,253]: The Iranians say civilian nuclear energy the rest of the world says come on you guys are engaged in a covert program to develop nuclear weapons to advance your revolutionary ambitions threaten Israel threaten the Saudis our other Gulf allies and the United States [00:21:52,133]: Let’s go back to the pre Iran deal era [00:21:57,073]: By Iran deal I mean the JCPOA Obama era deal that is generally referred to as the Iran deal [00:22:04,973]: What was the status quo at the time vis a vis Iran’s nuclear capabilities [00:22:11,993]: What was America and the world worried about that led to the beginning of negotiations and ultimately to a deal [00:22:20,053]: So we’ve got to go back into the 1990s when there was a first indication that Iran was beginning to develop a nuclear program but it was really the early 2000s [00:22:35,453]: Iran had been engaged in some enrichment the United States invades Iraq the Iranians had been in negotiations with the Europeans and Tehran expects their next [00:22:47,023]: So they agreed to freeze any enrichment activities and engage in diplomacy with Europe [00:22:55,973]: They are also playing these games but they’re really worried that U S troops are going to march on Tehran [00:23:06,363]: And they watched how quickly the U S military had disposed of Saddam Hussein who they had this brutal war against the Iran Iraq war that cost over a million lives [00:23:17,273]: Then there were revelations that came out not from the Iranians but through these Iranian exile groups who I think ultimately were fed the intelligence from Western intelligence sources that there were covert programs that Iran had built covert enrichment facilities [00:23:36,693]: And these revelations came out sort of shocked the world [00:23:41,063]: And Iran had built literally under mountains hardened in concrete enrichment facilities where they were installing centrifuges that it could enrich uranium to these higher levels including up to weapons grade uranium to build nuclear weapons [00:23:57,533]: And thus began a years long diplomatic but also sanctions dance with the regime in Iran [00:24:11,613]: An attempt to get them back to the table to discuss their nuclear program [00:24:16,053]: Five U N [00:24:16,533]: Security Council resolutions were passed with the support of China and Russia calling on Iran to end its enrichment activities [00:24:25,073]: So that takes us all the way up to the Obama administration [00:24:29,213]: Bush administration had put in place some sanctions [00:24:32,213]: I mentioned that I started working on these sanctions when I came to Washington through the Treasury Department some congressional sanctions [00:24:40,273]: It was really under Barack Obama who decides that Obama is going to deal with this Iranian nuclear threat that he understood was very severe [00:24:50,073]: 2009 Obama administration’s coming in [00:24:54,313]: The Green Revolution breaks out in Tehran [00:24:57,433]: There are millions of Iranians on the streets in North Tehran yelling death to the dictator President Obama [00:25:02,853]: Are you with us [00:25:03,553]: Are you with the dictator [00:25:05,333]: The protests are broken out because of a fraudulent election [00:25:10,233]: It was the re election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad [00:25:13,173]: You may remember him [00:25:15,513]: Sort of a real notorious character Holocaust denier [00:25:18,373]: He was running these cartoon contests in Tehran about who can make the most egregious Holocaust denial cartoon [00:25:28,033]: He was threatening to destroy Israel [00:25:31,153]: Invited by the way to New York to Columbia to speak at our prestigious university here [00:25:37,633]: Causing a lot of angst of course in the United States in the Middle East and around the world [00:25:44,053]: Obama decides not to support the Iranian protesters who are on the streets [00:25:48,013]: He writes a letter to the Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei who had taken over from Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 [00:25:55,393]: He says Khamenei let’s talk [00:25:58,493]: Let’s talk about your program [00:26:00,313]: Thus begun a diplomatic process of discussions back channel discussions ultimately in Oman through Omani mediators [00:26:13,793]: And we reach a deal with Iran in 2013 [00:26:18,153]: Can I pause you right there [00:26:19,613]: Is this an attempt by Obama to begin a negotiation when the adversary is weak and when we’re in a position of leverage [00:26:28,673]: Is that the game theory behind the letter [00:26:31,893]: I think it’s a combination [00:26:33,553]: Yeah [00:26:33,793]: I mean to the credit of the Obama administration Obama decides in first term that he needs to build leverage with Iran [00:26:40,653]: So his Treasury Department starts imposing sanctions [00:26:45,133]: Congress really gets into the action and they start passing the toughest sanctions against Iran that have ever been imposed really going after the oil sector the central bank after the key instrumentalities of Iran’s economy [00:27:00,193]: Such powerful sanctions that the Obama administration is actually objecting to them because they’re worried that this is going to undermine the diplomatic outreach to the Supreme Leader [00:27:11,553]: Sanctions actually kicking Iran off the swift banking system [00:27:14,453]: I mean these are really really tough sanctions [00:27:16,753]: They ultimately pass Congress overwhelmingly 100 to 0 in the Senate 98 to 2 overwhelmingly in the House [00:27:24,573]: The biggest bipartisan majorities that we’ve probably ever seen on any issue over the objections in some cases of the Obama administration [00:27:31,253]: But nonetheless Obama understands this is giving him leverage to negotiate [00:27:36,493]: And it’s between 2009 and 2013 that the toughest sanctions are put in place and the Obama administration is reaching out to the Ayatollah to try and get some kind of diplomatic negotiations on track [00:27:50,893]: So he sends Jake Sullivan and Bill Burns [00:27:54,733]: Jake Sullivan becomes the National Security Advisor under Joe Biden [00:27:58,073]: Bill Burns becomes the CIA Director under Biden [00:28:01,693]: But at the time Burns was working in the State Department senior official [00:28:05,213]: And Jake was Hillary’s Chief of Staff or he may have been at that time Biden’s National Security Advisor when Biden was the Vice President [00:28:14,493]: So Biden and Burns fly to Oman and they start talking to the Iranians [00:28:19,133]: Back channel [00:28:19,753]: No one knows about it [00:28:20,513]: Secret negotiations [00:28:22,293]: It’s at that point that the Iranians and this is going to be a recurring theme say look America we’ll prepare to negotiate but we have a red line [00:28:32,653]: And the red line is we will never give up on enrichment [00:28:36,613]: And Jake and Bill say well there’s five UN Security Council resolutions saying zero enrichment [00:28:42,113]: And the Iranians say we’re walking away from the table [00:28:46,133]: You concede enrichment to us or this is over and then you’re going to have to deal with the consequences [00:28:51,233]: So the United States says OK I’ll tell you what we’ll give you 500 centrifuges first generation [00:28:57,373]: They’ve got to be above ground [00:28:58,713]: And you can only enrich to 3 67 [00:29:01,513]: And the Iranians say OK we’ll agree to that [00:29:03,853]: They sign the Joint Plan of Action the JPOA give the Iranians billions of dollars in sanctions relief [00:29:10,793]: And this begins the next stage of the negotiations which are two years painstaking negotiations multiple capitals in Europe and Central Asia [00:29:22,373]: The Europeans get involved the E3 France Britain and the UK [00:29:26,733]: Chinese and Russians are there [00:29:28,153]: I mean this is now John Kerry Secretary of State at the time Wendy Sherman lead negotiator negotiating with Javad Zarif the foreign minister and his deputies [00:29:42,213]: That culminates in the 2015 deal [00:29:44,403]: So we get from 500 centrifuges first generation above ground 3 67 to the JCPOA the 2015 deal [00:29:53,793]: And at the time the Supreme Leader had because he’s not in the negotiations [00:29:58,533]: He’s actually never left Iran never been abroad [00:30:02,773]: But he’s thundering away on social media [00:30:06,403]: And he sends out a clear declaration to all the negotiators [00:30:11,733]: I will not accept zero enrichment [00:30:15,633]: Indeed I’m looking for the equivalent of about 100 000 first generation centrifuges [00:30:22,633]: So remember we talked about 500 [00:30:24,273]: He says I want the equivalent of 100 000 [00:30:27,533]: Did he say a percentage or did he leave that open ended [00:30:30,973]: He left it open ended but 100 000 centrifuges [00:30:34,653]: And it was expressed in this very technical way called special work units [00:30:40,003]: I don’t want to get too in the details here [00:30:42,333]: But it becomes important because the JCPOA is reached [00:30:45,893]: And for those of us who are critics of the JCPOA the fundamental flaw of the agreement is the Supreme Leader gets way more than 100 000 centrifuges or the equivalent thereof [00:30:57,923]: He just has to wait because inside the agreement the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities sunset over time [00:31:06,033]: They disappear over time [00:31:08,153]: And it’s a 15 year deal [00:31:11,653]: Many of the restrictions start disappearing after 10 years [00:31:14,393]: And most of them are gone after 15 [00:31:17,533]: Well it was reached in 2015 which means this is the year 2025 where a number of the restrictions start to disappear [00:31:25,993]: And in five years time effectively they’re all gone [00:31:29,173]: And then Iran can have not just 100 000 first generation centrifuges [00:31:34,013]: It is building all the way along these advanced centrifuges [00:31:40,073]: And it is at a point where because of these advanced centrifuges are much more powerful and they can enrich uranium at much faster speeds you need fewer numbers of them [00:31:51,033]: Why would you want fewer numbers of centrifuges [00:31:53,133]: Because they’re easier to hide [00:31:55,213]: Because you can put them in clandestine facilities that the International Atomic Energy Agency doesn’t know about that Mossad and CIA can’t detect [00:32:03,053]: So all the way along in this deal Iran gets to test and build advanced centrifuges wait for the restrictions to expire and emerge by 2030 with a massive industrial sized enrichment capability thousands of advanced centrifuges the ability to enrich uranium to any level [00:32:23,473]: There are no restrictions once all the restrictions sunset [00:32:26,993]: And build up its ballistic missile program develop its intercontinental ballistic missile program [00:32:33,613]: And we had calculated at FDD that through the life of the JCPOA Iran would have gotten a trillion dollars in sanctions relief which they could use to rebuild their economy fund their proxies and cause more mischief and havoc in the Middle East [00:32:52,993]: So that was a trajectory we were on as a result of the 2015 deal [00:32:57,293]: And obviously something changed in the meantime [00:33:00,813]: From the Iranian point of view if you’re the supreme leader of Iran you’re likely thinking on at least if you’re smart you’re thinking on at minimum a 20 year time scale [00:33:14,973]: Most US presidents can’t realistically think beyond four because they can’t assume re election [00:33:20,353]: They can’t assume any decision they make won’t be unmade after four years [00:33:27,513]: Puts them in a very unstrategic position relative to their adversaries who can simply outweigh them on a policy building in to the negotiation pricing in the fact essentially that many of these policies are likely to reverse in four years [00:33:46,153]: What I’m hearing in the subtext of your criticism of the Iran deal is that it might have made a lot of strategic sense for them to say OK our short term problem is a lack of cash and this is hurting us [00:34:02,793]: Our long term goal is nuclear weapons [00:34:05,413]: Now if we just put off the long term goal by 15 years and we can still make some progress towards it without flipping the switch as it were we can solve our short term cash problem and even build up cash reserves [00:34:19,893]: And then the moment the sunset provisions hit then if we’re just patient we’ll get everything we want [00:34:27,213]: Rather if we insist upon it now we may get nothing [00:34:32,753]: And is it right to say your criticism of the Iran deal is that it handed them that strategy as an acceptable strategy and they have the world’s stamp of approval in a way [00:34:47,293]: That’s exactly right [00:34:48,733]: They could take patient pathways to nuclear weapons and that was fine with them because the patient pathway actually helped them deal with a number of different and related problems they had [00:35:01,153]: The first is they were concerned that the Israelis were going to bomb their nuclear facilities [00:35:05,553]: Well they knew that it would be much more difficult for Israel to bomb their nuclear facilities if there was a deal [00:35:11,213]: And as you said there was the international stamp of approval that this was a legitimate internationally recognized nuclear program [00:35:18,533]: Much tougher for the Israelis to go bomb a legitimate nuclear facility than an illegal one [00:35:25,033]: So this would basically take the Israeli strike option off the table [00:35:29,193]: The second problem they had is their people hated them and they had millions of Iranians who had been on the streets [00:35:35,533]: And by the way they were crushed in 2009 but those Iranians came back to the streets in 2017 and then every year since culminating in the Women Live Freedom protests that were in 2022 2023 [00:35:49,673]: So they figured get all that cash and we can buy off our people [00:35:55,653]: And maybe our people hate us because of the terrible economic conditions [00:35:59,473]: If we solve the economic problem then we can preserve the regime which ultimately is the regime’s overwhelming priority is the preservation of the regime [00:36:08,193]: Much more important than having nuclear weapons is to make sure that the Islamic Republic continues and that Ali Khamenei can hand that off to his successor [00:36:17,093]: That helps solve that problem maybe [00:36:20,773]: And then they can also build up finish their ICBM program [00:36:24,933]: And by the way wage proxy warfare because the JCPOA never dealt with support for terrorism support for Hezbollah Hamas Islamic Jihad Shiite militias the Houthis [00:36:36,773]: It was not part of the deal [00:36:38,353]: So Iran would have a trillion dollars in cash not only rebuild its economy but really build up this massive what they call axis of resistance [00:36:47,873]: I call it the axis of misery [00:36:49,373]: But this is this proxy [00:36:52,584]: army and build this kind of ring of fire around Israel because that was their strategy [00:36:58,064]: When I think about this do I think the Iranians are going to drop a nuclear bomb on Tel Aviv [00:37:03,264]: One should never exclude that possibility and we can talk about that but I think the actual play and if you listen to Khamenei and his words the strategy that he wants to run is similar to the one that the Kim family ran in North Korea [00:37:17,904]: Build up nuclear weapons have ICBMs that threaten America but basically send a message to the U S military and the South Korean military we can destroy Seoul in three days [00:37:29,764]: You can’t touch us and then start to squeeze and run a war of attrition and what Khamenei wanted to do is have these nuclear weapons build up this ring of fire and then run a strategy of asphyxiation to strangle the Jewish state with missiles and drones and invasions and terrorist attacks and drive the best and the brightest out of Israel because many of the best and the brightest work in tech and speak multiple languages some of them have foreign passports they’ll leave because life will become intolerable in Israel and then Khamenei can move in for the kill shot against a rump that’s left behind that can’t defend themselves against his terror armies all the while having nuclear weapons to threaten nuclear escalation [00:38:18,964]: And he also learned I think a valuable lesson from Putin and Ukraine [00:38:23,184]: When Putin threatened to introduce tactical nukes into the war in Ukraine the Biden administration thought there was a 50 50 chance that he was not bluffing [00:38:35,604]: God forbid there was going to be nuclear escalation with the Russians [00:38:38,784]: And so the Biden administration decided not to send advanced weaponry to the Ukrainian military that could be used to attack Russian troops that were mobilizing on the Russian Ukrainian border [00:38:50,544]: And so they were at a real disadvantage [00:38:52,724]: So that’s the way Khamenei thinks of this [00:38:54,324]: If I have nuclear weapons I’m going to severely restrict the ability of the IDF to respond to my terror armies and I’m going to force an American president to force an Israeli prime minister to force the Israeli military to stand down because nobody wants to risk escalation with the Islamic Republic and revolutionary regime that may because you never know may be prepared to use nuclear weapons [00:39:19,684]: So I think that’s the way he games it out [00:39:22,544]: In foreign policy as in economics you’re often just dealing with bad alternatives and trying to choose the least bad alternative [00:39:31,824]: So what’s the counterfactual if you go back to 2013 and you’re in charge of the White House [00:39:43,124]: Are you going for a different kind of deal in that scenario or are you just resigned to the fact that a deal right now is not possible until Iran is much more desperate [00:39:55,364]: Yeah so let me make the case for Obama [00:39:57,244]: I think there are a number of elements in how he saw it and how he was trying to I think genuinely try to deal with this nuclear weapons problem [00:40:08,044]: I think he saw it as a significant threat [00:40:10,724]: I mean you know there’s a lot of voices out there now on the left on the isolationist right or who cares about an Iranian nuclear weapon [00:40:17,644]: Barack Obama really cared and he wanted to prevent it [00:40:21,804]: But his strategy I think I thought was flawed but I thought it was at least it’s defensible [00:40:28,604]: I think number one I think Obama really believed I think as Donald Trump does as well that if you flood hard men with cash you’ll turn them into responsible stakeholders [00:40:38,604]: And by the way this has been a bipartisan view for years [00:40:41,484]: I mean this was Nixon and Kissinger and China [00:40:44,804]: This has been China through every administration [00:40:48,064]: Let them into the WTO [00:40:51,544]: Open them up to global trade [00:40:53,944]: Make the hard men of Beijing rich and you’ll moderate them [00:40:57,484]: I think there was the same view after the fall of the Soviet Union [00:41:01,164]: At the end of the day this guy Vladimir Putin we can deal with Putin [00:41:05,404]: He’s a pragmatist [00:41:06,724]: Let’s make him rich [00:41:08,464]: Let’s make Russia rich and we’ll turn the Russians from the bad old days of the Soviet Union to a more prosperous European looking country [00:41:22,344]: Obama said this [00:41:23,884]: I mean I think in his view that if you opened up the Iranian economy and you integrated Iran into the global economy the hard men of Iran would ultimately be more concerned about their time on this earth rather than what comes next after they’re gone [00:41:43,404]: And that was very much his view which made sense [00:41:47,404]: I’m going to restrict the nuclear program [00:41:49,304]: I got 15 years here [00:41:51,024]: They’re not going to develop a nuclear weapon [00:41:54,124]: And I’m going to flood them with cash [00:41:56,064]: At the end of 15 years we’re going to have a more prosperous Iran a more moderate and a more pragmatic Iran [00:42:02,084]: And by the way within the internal wars that take place within the regime we’re going to isolate the hardliners and we’re going to embolden the reformers [00:42:12,544]: So I think that was very much the view [00:42:14,904]: I think the second defense of the Obama deal is—they never publicly articulated it [00:42:20,244]: This was really interesting [00:42:21,184]: I’ve asked many of my friends in the Obama administration why they didn’t [00:42:24,444]: But the best way I would have defended that deal in 2015 is I would have said this is phase one [00:42:32,184]: It’s a 15 year deal but we intend after year 10 to negotiate a renewal of the deal with Iran [00:42:40,084]: We’ll give them more money in exchange for more years and then we’ll buy ourselves another 15 years [00:42:45,544]: Or we’ll use—it’s impossible to know how the world will change in 10 years [00:42:49,544]: We’ll use every leverage point we have to get them to renew this after 10 years [00:42:55,564]: Right right [00:42:56,444]: But this is the best we can do now and it’s better than nothing [00:42:59,064]: Better than nothing [00:42:59,664]: As you said it’s not about good and bad alternatives it’s about bad alternatives and worse alternatives [00:43:04,884]: This isn’t a great one but it’s better than Iran breaking out to a nuclear weapon [00:43:08,204]: So we’ll start—we’ll renew this deal [00:43:12,104]: It’ll take a few years so we’ll start after you know whatever year 10 year 12 and we’ll renew the JCPOA [00:43:17,484]: We still have some leverage because some of the sanctions are going to remain in place particularly the terrorism sanctions [00:43:23,484]: There probably won’t be a massive gold rush into Iran because people will be cautious about dealing with their counterparties who are in the Revolutionary Guards or supporters of Hezbollah [00:43:34,304]: But we’ll still retain some leverage and where the United States will obviously always have significant leverage and that is that we always have the military option [00:43:44,484]: If the regime refuses to comply we could always order U S military strikes to take out their nuclear facilities [00:43:50,664]: So we’ll renew the deal [00:43:51,944]: So I think that was the second argument [00:43:54,584]: By the way they never made that argument publicly which was always strange [00:43:58,884]: They told me that they didn’t because they didn’t want to upset the Iranians at the time who would be thinking that this is only a 15 year deal and then they can ride off into the nuclear sunset [00:44:14,424]: So you don’t want to upset the Iranians [00:44:16,484]: I think that was very much part of the Obama administration’s entire negotiating position with the regime and that is we want to use confidence building measures [00:44:26,414]: We don’t want to upset them [00:44:28,484]: We don’t want to get involved in these tough brinkmanship negotiations [00:44:33,984]: So that was very much the view of the Obama administration of Kerry of Wendy Sherman [00:44:39,544]: Let’s build confidence with our interlocutors because by the way our interlocutors are the reformers those guys back in Tehran [00:44:47,164]: Those are the hardliners [00:44:49,624]: And Zarif and his negotiating team were very good at using that [00:44:53,664]: Classic good cop bad cop [00:44:54,964]: Classic classic good cop bad cop [00:44:56,924]: In fact Wendy Sherman proudly told the story about how she actually cried in front of the Iranian negotiating team in order to express her emotions [00:45:05,824]: It was a tough time a lot of tension and she broke into tears [00:45:09,584]: And she thought that that was a good way of showing that there were human beings on both sides of the negotiating table [00:45:15,464]: Of course back in Tehran she was readily mocked for being weak and Western and who cries at a negotiating table [00:45:26,264]: And then they knew they had her [00:45:27,544]: That’s their version of events [00:45:30,284]: Wow [00:45:30,864]: Okay so let’s talk about Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran deal [00:45:38,244]: Did you support that at the time and how do you think it looks in retrospect [00:45:41,664]: What was Trump’s reasoning to the extent he had a coherent set of reasons [00:45:49,104]: And what do you think the consequences have been [00:45:52,364]: Yeah so we’re now in 2018 [00:45:57,184]: Trump withdraws from the agreement in May of 2018 but there’s kind of months before that of discussions and debates and negotiations that are taking place in Washington inside the Trump administration [00:46:08,424]: I’m in close touch with the Trump folks [00:46:12,364]: My recommendation is let’s first try and extend the deal [00:46:17,864]: Let’s get the Europeans to the table [00:46:20,364]: Let’s do a deal between the United States and the E3 Britain France and Germany [00:46:25,364]: Let’s agree amongst ourselves that is the Western negotiators that we won’t honor the sunsets [00:46:31,044]: For us it’ll be a permanent deal permanent restriction [00:46:34,124]: So let’s try that first [00:46:36,344]: Let’s get Congress to support that and turn that agreement into statute [00:46:41,804]: So now you’ve got bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans [00:46:45,564]: And then we can go and negotiate with the Iranians with a unified U S.-E3 Democratic Republican So Trump actually begins that process [00:46:58,224]: He tells Mike Pompeo who was the Secretary of State at the time and Brian Hook who’s the main Iran envoy to begin discussions with the Europeans [00:47:07,364]: And those discussions are going on [00:47:09,004]: By the way the Europeans have no interest in doing this kind of side deal [00:47:13,004]: They’re resisting this [00:47:14,804]: And at some point Trump just says enough with this [00:47:18,864]: By the way he famously says sorry who’s Brian Hook [00:47:22,104]: He’s the lead Iran envoy [00:47:24,224]: He famously says I don’t know who Brian Hook is [00:47:26,324]: Anyway I’m out [00:47:27,764]: We’re done [00:47:28,284]: This deal is fatally flawed [00:47:30,304]: And he explains he says I read the entire agreement all 150 whatever three pages of it [00:47:36,024]: And it’s the worst deal ever negotiated [00:47:39,644]: And we’re gone [00:47:41,224]: This deal gave enrichment to Iran [00:47:44,324]: That is the key capability they need to develop nuclear weapons [00:47:47,284]: And he pulls out of the agreement in May 2018 [00:47:50,284]: I at that time supported the withdrawal from the agreement because the other recommendation that I thought would have been better would have been to stay in the deal reach that agreement with the Europeans and by the way use elements of the deal that I think were favorable to the United States while putting massive sanctions pressure on the regime and really re establishing the credibility of American military force and power [00:48:13,564]: But nevertheless Trump makes his decision and we’re out of the agreement in 2018 [00:48:19,084]: Yeah [00:48:20,384]: So I think you can look back on Trump’s record on Iran in one of two ways [00:48:26,364]: Objectively Iran seemed relatively well behaved when Trump was in office the first term [00:48:34,644]: He killed Soleimani [00:48:36,224]: He showed that he was willing to use force controversially and even more worrisome from their perspective unpredictably right [00:48:49,124]: Many people have talked about the madman theory of foreign policy which is what you fear most actually and this to some extent it’s true in a game like poker as well [00:49:00,724]: You fear someone that is fairly competent but somewhat unpredictable right [00:49:06,744]: What you want is someone who’s very consistent who you know exactly what their incentive structure is and you know exactly what the incentive structure they want for you is [00:49:15,784]: Someone that’s readable [00:49:19,844]: Trump he changes his mind very quickly from day to day [00:49:24,024]: The people that work around him have even said this over and over again how frustrating it is to get him to commit to a decision and that he can reverse by tweet the next day [00:49:34,944]: So if the people around Trump can’t read what he’s going to do in the next 24 hours certainly the leadership of Iran can’t [00:49:41,944]: And they can’t rule out that he’s going to do something really crazy [00:49:45,684]: And so from their point of view it would make a lot of sense to just say this guy Trump he’s a loose cannon [00:49:51,704]: We don’t know what he’ll do [00:49:53,844]: Let’s be on our best behavior until he loses the election [00:49:57,144]: And if you look at the record really the moment Trump loses to Biden all of a sudden you start seeing action on Iran’s nuclear program again [00:50:07,904]: So one way of looking at Trump is that look he left the Iran deal and it looks like the consequences were not like they didn’t immediately begin enriching uranium really [00:50:20,264]: But another way of looking at it that I think I’m more sympathetic to is that sure he left the deal [00:50:25,824]: Not sure whether that was a good decision [00:50:27,964]: But he was also a kind of quote unquote madman not in the negative sense [00:50:34,024]: And that’s what deterred Iran while Trump was in office [00:50:37,764]: Not the fact that he left the deal [00:50:40,424]: So your theory is bolstered by the clear evidence when you map out the political timeline and the nuclear timeline [00:50:51,004]: Because that’s actually exactly what happened [00:50:52,964]: So Trump withdraws from the agreement for a year [00:50:57,184]: Iran does nothing [00:50:58,964]: Then they start small incremental expansion of their program [00:51:05,384]: And then Trump kills Qasem Soleimani [00:51:08,084]: And the regime is shocked [00:51:10,244]: We’re all shocked [00:51:11,164]: I mean no U S president was prepared to do this [00:51:13,324]: George W Bush wouldn’t do it [00:51:14,684]: Obama wouldn’t do it [00:51:16,484]: The Pentagon opposes Trump [00:51:17,884]: I mean Qasem Soleimani I mean look the world’s most dangerous terrorist responsible for killing and maiming thousands of Americans [00:51:25,784]: But they’re also their most fierce battlefield commander and inspired both fear and awe in the Middle East [00:51:33,224]: And no U S president was willing to take him out [00:51:36,744]: Trump says to the Iranian regime if you touch an American they will be held at bay [00:51:44,004]: Soleimani thinks OK [00:51:45,744]: They shoot down an American drone [00:51:46,924]: Trump does nothing [00:51:48,884]: They attack the Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia take out 10 15 20 percent of global oil overnight with missiles and drones [00:51:57,684]: Trump does nothing [00:51:59,604]: Four months later Soleimani or their Shiite militias kill a U S contractor [00:52:06,244]: And Soleimani and the head of the Shiite militias Mohandas decide the guy’s a paper tiger [00:52:12,824]: We’re going to actually plot to take over the U S embassy in Baghdad [00:52:16,964]: So they begin preparations for that Trump says [00:52:20,704]: That’s it [00:52:21,424]: Draws the line [00:52:22,544]: Based on this exquisite intelligence from Assad they know exactly Soleimani is going to land in Baghdad on this plane at this time [00:52:30,164]: He’s going to get into a convoy in this car seated next to Mohandas the head of the Shiite militias [00:52:35,944]: And Trump orders the U S military to take out Soleimani [00:52:43,804]: The regime is shocked [00:52:46,004]: For 11 months after that they don’t touch their nuclear program [00:52:49,904]: There’s no nuclear expansion [00:52:51,864]: Joe Biden wins the election [00:52:53,384]: And Biden wins the election on a promise to go back to JCPOA and abandon this failed maximum pressure strategy of his predecessor as he states it [00:53:02,964]: And then you’re exactly right [00:53:04,564]: From then on all through the Biden administration Iran goes from 3 67 enriched uranium to 20 to 60 [00:53:11,764]: They go to 84 just to see how much they can get away with just shy of the 90 enriched uranium [00:53:20,564]: They start experimenting with uranium metal which you need for a warhead [00:53:25,224]: They are building and installing thousands of more advanced centrifuges [00:53:29,024]: And we are where we are today with the Iranian nuclear program on the cusp of breakout [00:53:36,084]: They can break out to multiple nuclear weapons today [00:53:39,264]: They have enough enriched uranium [00:53:40,864]: They have the ballistic missiles to deliver [00:53:42,524]: And the only thing they have not perfected yet is the actual warhead [00:53:46,784]: But all of that nuclear expansion occurs under Joe Biden because he’s predictable [00:53:52,804]: The regime can read him [00:53:54,624]: And by the way he’s very clear [00:53:56,224]: I want to go back to this agreement [00:53:58,104]: He’s not prepared to use significant sanctions pressure [00:54:01,304]: He’s certainly not going to use military force [00:54:03,664]: And he doesn’t appear to be willing to let the Israelis do what the Israelis need to do [00:54:10,024]: But then things change after October 7th [00:54:12,624]: Maybe we can talk a little bit about that [00:54:14,644]: But the whole dynamic changes on the Israeli side after Hamas invades [00:54:20,504]: So let’s get to that just in a moment [00:54:22,444]: But just to summarize what it seems like to me if I look at the Obama era Trump won and Biden holistically [00:54:34,124]: Tell me what’s wrong with this theory [00:54:37,704]: The Obama Iran deal was all right [00:54:41,284]: It was a decent short term solution to the problem with some long term liabilities [00:54:48,204]: Trump’s madman approach to foreign policy was also a pretty good short term solution to the problem with the long term liability of what happens when Trump is gone [00:55:00,244]: Both of those were short term deterrents to Iran’s nuclear program [00:55:05,344]: And they both worked reasonably well with some downsides [00:55:10,844]: What doesn’t work is having neither of those approaches which is what Biden had no deal [00:55:18,229]: that he could credibly be a part of he tried to kind of in a wishy washy way establish some understandings that were deal like [00:55:29,169]: But you can’t have neither of those because if you have neither of those you give Iran very few reasons to even wait with its nuclear program [00:55:39,329]: What’s wrong with that theory of like the past 15 years [00:55:42,749]: No I think that’s a really good summary [00:55:45,309]: I mean I do think the JCPOA was a fatally flawed agreement because of the fact that it conceded enrichment it conceded a nuclear infrastructure it abandoned years of the international consensus that said Iran can’t have enrichment [00:56:02,709]: It allowed Iran to take a patient pathway under the deal [00:56:06,569]: And so even though you got some short term restrictions very quickly you allowed Iran to accelerate its nuclear program and then break out into this legitimate program with a trillion dollars in your pocket [00:56:20,269]: So I’m not as generous to the 2015 deal maybe as you are [00:56:26,229]: But yes in terms of that if you’re a U S president and you’re just trying to kick the can down the road for four years so that Iran quote doesn’t get a nuclear weapon on my watch then it’s a good deal for Obama [00:56:37,489]: By the way if you’re Donald Trump and you’re like they’re not going to get a nuclear weapon on my watch then you withdraw from the agreement you impose maximum pressure you bring the Iranian economy to its knees you take out Soleimani you credibly threaten the Iranians with military strikes and you deter them from action on your watch [00:57:00,589]: So in many ways Biden was screwed over by Obama and Trump’s short term approaches [00:57:06,409]: I think that’s fair [00:57:07,249]: But I think he was screwed over also by the fact that the Biden administration’s entire doctrine was that we are going to always de escalate [00:57:19,409]: We’re going to de escalate by de escalating [00:57:22,029]: So we’re going to invite the Iranians back to negotiations we’re going to talk to them we’re going to give them some financial incentives we’re not going to enforce sanctions we’re going to build confidence but we’re not going to escalate to de escalate [00:57:33,929]: And that’s why the Biden administration runs smack into the Israelis after October 7th [00:57:39,289]: Because the Israelis all the while who have been deeply concerned by Iran’s nuclear weapons expansion the buildup of its terror armies by the way the Israelis are completely excluded from all these negotiations [00:57:51,889]: They don’t have a seat at the table [00:57:53,669]: They only learn about the secret negotiations in Amman in 2013 not from the Americans but they learn because they’re sitting on top of the Iranians [00:58:04,289]: And they have significant intelligence capabilities but obviously not bugging Americans but they’re bugging Iranians [00:58:10,369]: And they learn about it [00:58:11,169]: So I mean they’re not exactly inspired with great confidence that the United States has their back [00:58:17,309]: But after October 7th the Iranians who have trained and weaponized and financed and directed Hamas and Hezbollah both of whom start attacking Israel the Israeli response is we are going to escalate to de escalate [00:58:35,609]: And they go after Hamas and they go after Hezbollah [00:58:39,669]: And they do things that I think shocked most American military and political leaders in their ability to take out both these very deadly terrorist armies that Khamenei had always used and saved used against Israel in a grinding war of attrition but he had saved Hezbollah [00:59:03,449]: I mean he wanted to save Hezbollah as a deterrent against any kind of U S or Israeli attack on his nuclear facilities [00:59:10,589]: Israelis eviscerate Hezbollah’s leadership Hamas’s leadership [00:59:14,829]: They’re escalating to de escalate [00:59:16,929]: And then the Iranians retaliate fire 400 cruise and ballistic missiles at them in April and October [00:59:23,489]: And the Israeli Air Force goes in takes out all of Iran’s strategic air defenses in a couple of hours reduces their ballistic missile production capability by 93 exactly [00:59:36,849]: And all of a sudden all of the years that military planners have spent warning the Bush administration the Obama administration the Biden administration the Trump administration that we will lose pilots [00:59:52,509]: This will be a serious war [00:59:54,909]: These Iranians have bought Russian S 400 air defense systems that are very difficult to This is a formidable Iranian military and it’ll take weeks or months [01:00:08,209]: Israelis have basically taken them down or at least taken the air defenses and their ballistic missile production capability down in one night [01:00:15,389]: And now we get to the end of the Biden administration and the transition period where now there’s a big debate going on in the White House and between Washington and Jerusalem about what is the next step against Iran’s nuclear program [01:00:32,529]: So one way of looking at this is that America has taken a range of approaches on the kind really because of October 7th because of the vast public support in Israel the knowledge of how vulnerable they are after 10 7 and also I think a crystallizing of the fact that Iran was the head of the octopus [01:01:02,569]: That’s been known for a long time but there’s a way in which it could have felt abstract until October 7th [01:01:08,789]: And the way that allowed Israel to take the hawkish end of the spectrum against Iran and its proxies has that approach—I mean I think the conventional wisdom in my circles is that that approach has been really surprisingly successful not just in the military wins Israel’s had with Hezbollah and Iran but in the political consequences vis a vis Israel’s stature throughout the Middle East [01:01:42,969]: I think you said in one of your interviews that essentially the Middle East is a tough neighborhood where weakness is provocative and Western countries are used to living in a really nice neighborhood with nice neighbors where toughness is provocative actually [01:02:06,669]: And weakness builds trust and builds bridges and leads to good consequences [01:02:11,149]: Not weakness but rather signals of wanting to cooperate aren’t read as weakness essentially [01:02:18,489]: Between U S and Canada signals of being willing to cooperate usually lead to win win outcomes because our basic attitude towards each other is one of collaboration and positive sum games [01:02:33,389]: Until recently [01:02:33,509]: Until we start calling the 51st state [01:02:35,389]: Exactly [01:02:35,709]: Until Trump did that [01:02:39,469]: But if that’s true as a basic characterization then Israel benefits even vis a vis its Muslim nation potential collaborators like Saudi Arabia and UAE [01:02:52,709]: It actually benefits from showing strength and capabilities rather than deference [01:02:58,609]: So if all that’s true does it cast in a more negative light U S foreign policy in the Middle East towards Iran over the past 10 years or so [01:03:10,849]: Yeah [01:03:11,409]: I think that’s right [01:03:12,309]: Or are we just in different situations because we’re not in that neighborhood [01:03:15,709]: I think it matters [01:03:16,949]: I mean it matters for the Israelis that live in the Mideast not in the Midwest [01:03:21,889]: As you say their neighbors are – it’s a brutal neighborhood [01:03:28,649]: And it’s a neighborhood where if you’re weak they will take that as an invitation to destroy you [01:03:37,109]: Israel’s fought multiple wars [01:03:38,849]: It has never had a day without the threat of terrorist attacks [01:03:44,009]: But the Israelis live in this strange split screen [01:03:47,649]: On one hand they have the Middle East split screen where they have to show toughness to their neighbors and their enemies [01:03:55,289]: And that requires them to do things that are – to use military force [01:04:00,129]: I mean it’s worth adding – I mean October 7th I think they changed their doctrine [01:04:04,989]: But Mossad had been hammering the Iranian nuclear program for years [01:04:08,889]: I mean they had killed nuclear scientists [01:04:11,809]: I mean there had been some incredibly daring takedowns of nuclear scientists including the killing of the Robert Oppenheimer of the Iranian nuclear program a guy named Mohsen Fakhrizadeh who Mossad killed in this daring operation using an AI controlled gun that was fired remotely from Tel Aviv and took out Fakhrizadeh in his car without hurting his wife and not even taking out his bodyguards [01:04:39,609]: And that was an incredible daring operation [01:04:42,509]: There have been Olympic Games where they released a cyber attack against centrifuges [01:04:51,049]: This was a cooperative effort with the CIA but it was really a Mossad brainchild and destroyed 1 000 plus centrifuges using cyber weapons [01:05:00,969]: They have taken out senior IRGC terrorist leaders [01:05:05,769]: They killed – this was after October 7th but they killed a senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an IRGC safe house in Tehran by putting a bomb under his bed [01:05:18,849]: And they’ve also done significant damage to Iran’s centrifuges and drone programs [01:05:23,829]: So even before October 7th Mossad had been engaged for decades in a struggle with the regime over the nuclear program and certainly was not tentative if anything was very forward leaning very creative [01:05:36,809]: There were times where the United States was really afraid that the Israelis were going to strike militarily [01:05:44,369]: That was particularly around 2011 2012 when there was a big debate within the Israeli cabinet about whether they should order military strikes and Netanyahu at the time blinked under both U S pressure but also because internally within the cabinet there were members including the head of Mossad at the time Mehrdad Ghan who thought this was not the time to strike militarily [01:06:04,829]: So the split screen on one hand is Middle East show your Middle East neighborhoods and show Khamenei in Tehran that you’re not a Westerner you mean business and you will use military force or covert action in deadly ways to stop this most dangerous regime from developing this most dangerous weapon [01:06:26,349]: But the other side of the split screen Coleman is what the Israelis face and we know this because we’ve seen it especially since October 7th [01:06:31,989]: They’re Western facing [01:06:33,969]: They love America [01:06:36,529]: I mean July 4th in Israel is full of American flags [01:06:41,489]: And I think in Israel and Poland the two countries where America has the most favorable ratings in the world they love Americans they want to be American they love being in New York they’ll come to New York and they face West [01:06:56,899]: And when the Western world looks at them especially now after October 7th they face this real dilemma because they are engaged in a war particularly in Gaza but also in Lebanon and they’re fighting an enemy that uses civilians as human shields that buries its weapons under civilian homes and mosques and hospitals [01:07:21,129]: And there have been obviously significant civilian casualties and there’s been a huge backlash against the Israelis [01:07:26,129]: So this is what the Israelis are contending with this split screen and I think it also feeds into their decision making on Iran and on the regime and what they can do what they can get away with doing even now under this second Trump administration [01:07:42,689]: Okay final question [01:07:44,609]: What is your greatest hope for what might be possible in this administration and what is your greatest fear for what might happen [01:07:53,509]: Well my greatest fear is that Trump is going to do another bad Iran deal that right now in the negotiations the American team has come in finally after a number of weeks of confusion and confusing messages but they’ve come in with a unified position [01:08:12,229]: The administration is saying zero enrichment full dismantlement [01:08:16,569]: Members of Congress and the Senate and the House the overwhelming majority of Republican senators and House members have said a deal has to be zero enrichment and full dismantlement [01:08:26,909]: So they’re walking into negotiations with that position and the Iranians are saying no way [01:08:33,789]: Did you hear the Supreme Leader [01:08:35,949]: Because he said full enrichment [01:08:38,789]: We can negotiate maybe some restrictions limited time limited certain levels maybe some of our stockpiles will be sent to the Russians blended down whatever [01:08:50,189]: Technical details are less important but we will absolutely maintain enrichment and we will not dismantle our nuclear program [01:08:58,009]: So we’re now in a negotiation where someone has to blink and if past is prologue it’s the Americans who always blink not the Iranians [01:09:07,489]: I mean the starting positions now are getting so wide right [01:09:11,349]: Because we’re asking for something that is worse for Iran than Obama’s nuclear deal but Iran is way further much closer to the finish line right [01:09:21,289]: Correct [01:09:21,589]: But Iran is much weaker [01:09:23,069]: Right [01:09:23,529]: Now to be fair to Obama when he was facing off against Iran in 2013 2015 they were under punishing economic sanctions the economy was reeling but they still had Hezbollah they had Hamas they had the Shiite militias the Houthis their strategic air defenses their ballistic missile production capability [01:09:39,789]: He was facing what he perceived I think rightly so as quite a formidable enemy [01:09:44,089]: Well most of that has been severely degraded or eviscerated [01:09:47,789]: So the Trump administration has greater negotiating leverage than Obama had in 2013 or 2015 and Iran is playing a very weak hand [01:09:57,329]: Now their negotiating leverage is their nuclear program has significantly expanded under Biden so they got nuclear cards to play [01:10:05,249]: But the regime is very fearful and they’re not only fearful of the Israelis and the Americans but as we talked about earlier since 2009 and since the deal was reached in 2013 and 2015 there have been these massive protests [01:10:21,809]: So what I’m most hopeful about is that finally the Israelis have made supporting the Iranian people a central pillar of their Iran strategy [01:10:33,389]: After many years they finally realized that they need to if they’re going to really solve this problem it’s not going to be just through some nuclear deal or it’s not just through strikes on Iran’s key nuclear facilities that there are 80 of Iranians millions of Iranians who despise the regime [01:10:52,309]: They’ve been on the streets yelling death to the dictator President Bush President Obama President Biden President Trump [01:10:59,469]: Are you with us [01:11:00,229]: Are you with the dictator [01:11:01,529]: Every American president seems to be interested in engaging with the Ayatollah and Trump also second term wrote the Ayatollah letter [01:11:09,749]: Let’s negotiate just as Obama did [01:11:13,389]: And yet the Iranian people keep coming back to the streets and the Israelis now understand that if Khamenei is spending 80 of his time and resources thinking about how to kill them kill Americans and 20 of his time thinking about how to defend his regime against his own people he wins we lose [01:11:29,929]: If it’s 80 20 he wins we lose [01:11:32,889]: If it’s 20 80 he goes down [01:11:35,929]: If it’s 50 50 60 40 40 60 it means he’s spending a lot more of his time and resources thinking about how to defend his regime against his own people and I think the Israelis finally understand that if you want to have a maximum pressure campaign against the regime that’s necessary [01:11:52,309]: But for it to be sufficient you need a maximum support campaign to defend the Iranian people support them when they take to the streets [01:12:00,669]: I’ll just say one final thing on this because a lot of people especially in the Trump administration and the president himself are like we’re totally opposed to regime change because it never works in the Middle East because of Iraq and because of Afghanistan [01:12:13,129]: I don’t think anybody who’s sensible is talking about 500 000 mechanized US troops invading Iran [01:12:19,469]: I think what people are saying is take a page from the Reagan playbook what Reagan used so successfully in the Cold War against the Soviet Union and Reagan’s unique insight at the time and it was a unique insight much against the conventional wisdom that the Soviet Union was economically bankrupt they were ideologically bankrupt the Red Army was stretched around the world and there were these anti Soviet dissidents who became household names for many of us during the Cold War that were pushing against communist governments in Poland and in Czechoslovakia and in Hungary [01:12:53,429]: And if you supported them you could undermine and you could weaken the regime [01:12:59,529]: And Reagan ran this playbook and from his Westminster speech in 1982 before the British Parliament where he said Marxism Leninism it’s inevitable that it’ll end up in the ash heap of history [01:13:10,289]: Seven years later the Berlin Wall came down and two years after that the Soviet Union collapsed [01:13:14,969]: So many of us have been making that case buying books on the Reagan strategy distributing hundreds of copies to American and Israeli policymakers and trying to get them to understand that the Soviet Union is not Iran and 1980 is not 2025 [01:13:31,689]: But there are some lessons to be learned about how support for the people while putting pressure on the regime can wear away what is already a very weakened regime [01:13:42,649]: All right [01:13:42,909]: Mark Dubowitz thanks so much for coming on the show [01:13:45,049]: Thanks for having me ColinTranscribe your media with TRNSCRB.
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